If Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a senator...

Assassins in our midst

Amazing...

Almost two months have passed since Obama's landslide election, and yet Alaska governor Sarah Palin remains a topic of conversation. She was fourth on Time Magazine's Person of the Year list. WHY? The media long knives are still out for her. They want her politically DEAD.

There is no doubt that fear is part of that equation. Fear by Democrats of the way she connected with people. Fear of the inside-the-Beltway Republicans who don't like the way she cleaned up Alaska's cesspool of Republican corruption.

They see her as the most scary embodiment of "flyover country" - rural values -- coloquial expressions ("you betcha"), large family, pro-life, hunter, fisher, blue-collar background, several state universities as her education. They see her as an anti-elitist -- a close call that almost succeeded had we not been protected by her "exposure" by our "watchdog media." These are the same vigilant watchdogs who have ignored the controversy over the question of a certified birth certificate of the President-elect, his corrupt machine that gave him his birth, the AWOL school transcripts and connections (where are all the fawning reminiscences of Barack Obama and his time at Punahou, Columbia, Harvard, et. al?) The compliant acceptance that his people had no improper conversations with Illinois Governor Payoffavitch...as New York governor Patterson prepares to pay off Teddy Kennedy and his family's early backing of Obama with Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg's senate seat. But then that New York Senate seat has long been a carpetbagger seat since...well, since uncle Bobby got it in the 60's, then Hillary (at least she won an election against sacrificial lamb Rick Lazio), and now Neil Diamond's "Sweet Caroline" will be appointed.

So why the hatred for Palin? She's won more elections than Hillary has, and Caroline Kennedy has never held elective office. Well, Palin was gonna be one step away from the presidency, they said. Even Dan Quayle got more respect than Palin. But then Senator Quayle was already part of the Washington crowd. This is the crowd that CAUSED the mortgage meltdown by passing laws that in essence FORCED banks to loan money to high risk people.(Some people called this MONTHS ago...and Frank and Dodd, the chairmen of the banking committees in each house of Congress, NOW have larger majorities to do this to other areas of US industry "cough" autos "cough".) Now, those same people, will bail out the auto industry...for while. Then California...Ohio...Michigan...but not Alaska.

Governor Palin is suggesting a budget cut of 7%, and even with the decline in oil revenues still expects a SURPLUS at the end of fiscal year 2010. She hit the nail on the head with her statement, that would be well heeded in Washington, and explains her appeal to so many in the Republican Party:

"We of course are going to be prudent," Palin said. "We're going to live within our means. We don't want any Alaskans to assume that government is the answer to all of the challenges and issues and problems that any individual faces."

In a few years, America may be sorry she didn't win.

I encourage readers to read this interview with Governor Palin here. Does this sound like the chopped up interview we saw with Katie Couric? The biting New York Times piece by Dick Cavett? The hateful pieces, even by Republicans, that gave many Americans the idea that this woman was a blithering idiot with no experience that must be kept away from the White House so that the inexperienced Barack Obama, and his corrupt Chicago buddies like Chief of Staff to be Rahm Emmanuel, can keep us safe and restore international faith in the United States? (Translation: the other countries that want us weakened, but also want more of our money.)

No, that wasn't the real Sarah Palin, it was a caricature that the Lapdog Obama Media wanted us to believe.

But they won! Why are they still scared of her?

Because she still connects with people. Georgia voters know...

So, New York Times, Washington Post, etc...be afraid...be very afraid. Sarah's not going away...she will run for governor again in 2010 and win big...and then, watch out. I'm not convinced she will run for president in 2012, but in 2016, she will be in her early 50s...and a lot of successful Republican candidates for state offices will owe her for the incessant campaigning she will be doing for them over the next eight years...

Her time will come...you read it here.

PS-- Thomas Sowell remains required reading. Class dismissed.

All statements by Barack Obama come with an expiration date

You remember it...that race speech that made the presstitutes think he was the next Lincoln...it made a tingle go up Chris Matthew's leg...the greatest speech on our biggest problem. I'm talking, of course, of Barack Obama's famous speech from Philadelphia on race.

It was ostensibly to take some of the heat off of him as people were listening to sound clips of his preacher of 20 odd years saying "God damn America" and talking about the "US of KKK".

One of the things that so impressed us about the speech was that he WROTE IT HIMSELF.

Ummm...maybe not.

Now appears a post-election revelation by the Washington Post that he actually gave a number of ideas he wanted covered in the speech to his speechwriter, Jon Favreau, and Favreau worked up a speech that Obama then spent some days tweaking to fit his style.

Is this evil, you ask? Heck no. Few politicians DON'T, have speechwriters do the work for their boss, after having been given guidance on what the boss wants to say. I'm just saying, that it was part of the "lore of Obama" that he wrote that speech by himself after two days of solid work.

I'm just saying what I had said at the time...and was contradicted on by friends and colleagues...HE DIDN'T WRITE IT. So, I get to say, I was right...

But wait...that's not the end of the story. Jon Favreau is part of the story.

Now, all we heard this year was how we needed to find new HOPE that CHANGE was gonna come. And for the most part, the only change has been throwing out most of the Bush people and replacing them with...uh...old CLINTON people. We aren't going to do business like we used to...people deserved to be treated with respect.

We did get some change...and Favreau is part of that change. As part of the inebriated celebration upon Obama's winning of the nomination, a "friend" of Favreau's was stupid enough to post a picture of Favreau and friends groping a cut-out of the Secretary of State nominee.

Fear not...his job with the Obama administration is not in jeopardy...he's not a Republican. Democrats are known to be tolerant and a friend of diversity. It's those neanderthal Republicans, especially those sexist, bigoted, homophobic, warmongering, lying conservatives, who are so unfit to serve our diverse nation.

Repeat after me: All statements by Barack Obama come with an expiration date...

Sexism is now ok. Racism is only a problem for white people. He's for gay marriage, he's against gay marriage. He wants us out of Iraq, we can't leave Iraq quite yet.

BARACK OBAMA IS SIMPLY A POLITICIAN.

I expect this theme to be a regular occurrence on this blog...sad to say.

Coach

Is "fear itself" all that's left?

No question, it's a tough road ahead.

But it's not time to throw the baby out with the bath water.

Today's great article is by Jonah Goldberg and can be found here.

Based on my nearly 20 years in asset management, I think he's right on the money (pardon the pun), but will America panic and make things worse?

Mr. Obama will be closely watched...

The Legacy of December 13th

This is another first for me...I am going to post another person's post. Please read this...and keep this in mind when you hear all the angry comments from our citizenry about Bush and the Iraq War.

Today marks the fifth anniversary of Saddam Hussein’s capture by U.S. forces, when he was pulled dirty, afraid, and alone from a hole in Tikrit, Iraq. Five years from that day, Iraqis continue to face a somewhat uncertain future fraught with challenges and perils. Critics of the war complain that there is no certainty that democracy can take root in Iraq, and lament the possibility that this “experiment” will fail. These cynics are correct in asserting that our achievements in Iraq remain fragile and potentially reversible, and they may be justified in their skepticism about an Iraqi democracy’s staying power. One thing is certain though: The Iraqi people, who have never had reason to, are now learning how to hope. They no longer face each day with the certainty that conditions are immutable and inevitable, as they had been forced to do for so many years under Saddam’s regime.

Saddam Hussein, his sons, and his supporters terrorized the people of Iraq and subjected them to violence and maltreatment without reason or restraint. His record of rape, torture, murder, and oppression is well documented but marginalized and deflected by critics who claim that the violence of the war overshadows Hussein’s heinous crimes. This argument does not, and cannot stand. During Saddam Hussein’s reign, Iraqis had no sense that the terror would ever end. The individual citizen had neither the right nor the ability to oppose Saddam’s henchmen, who took what they wanted, killed and raped at will, and tortured (think hooks, blowtorches, and electricity) to intimidate or eliminate potential enemies. The purpose of this evil was solely to maintain Saddam’s power and strengthen his regime by dominating the will of the people. He was held up as something more than human, above all laws and criticism and accountable to no one. Operation Desert Storm did little to give Iraqis lasting hope that Saddam would be defeated, and when he ruthlessly crushed the Shia and Kurds after the war without response from the West, they recognized it as another validation of Saddam’s invincibility.

When U.S. soldiers pulled Saddam Hussein from that hole in Tikrit, the spell that had held Iraqis captive for decades was broken. Suddenly, there was a glimmer of hope for a population who had never had the right to dream of a better life. That hope is what differentiates every day before December 13, 2003, from every day since. It is the hope that things will get better, that the individual life can mean something. That the next generation can live a better life than the current one, and that through effort and will the people can make tomorrow better than today. This hope is fundamental to meaningful human existence, but is often taken for granted by Americans who have never endured a life where its expression is denied by a cruel dictator. Some suggest that Saddam’s dictatorship, though cruel and oppressive, was the only way to effectively control the tribes, maintain order, and govern the country. Day by day the Iraqi people are proving them wrong; this is the legacy of December 13.

— Gabe Ledeen is the director of the Vets For Freedom Educational Institute. He served two tours in al Anbar, Iraq, as a Marine officer with an infantry battalion.

May we never forget people like Gabe Ledeen and his comrades...Semper Fi!

Was Bush the problem in the War on Terror

We saw a lot of talk about this subject through the last few years, as well as in the recent campaign. Now we read some interesting articles about the aftermath of the Mumbai massacre. A piece of which is quoted below:

Asked what was different about the victims of the incident, another doctor said: "It was very strange. I have seen so many dead bodies in my life, and was yet traumatised. A bomb blast victim's body might have been torn apart and could be a very disturbing sight. But the bodies of the victims in this attack bore such signs about the kind of violence of urban warfare that I am still unable to put my thoughts to words," he said.

Asked specifically if he was talking of torture marks, he said: "It was apparent that most of the dead were tortured. What shocked me were the telltale signs showing clearly how the hostages were executed in cold blood," one doctor said.

The other doctor, who had also conducted the post-mortem of the victims, said: "Of all the bodies, the Israeli victims bore the maximum torture marks. It was clear that they were killed on the 26th itself. It was obvious that they were tied up and tortured before they were killed. It was so bad that I do not want to go over the details even in my head again," he said.

Corroborating the doctors' claims about torture was the information that the Intelligence Bureau had about the terror plan. "During his interrogation, Ajmal Kamal said they were specifically asked to target the foreigners, especially the Israelis," an IB source said.

It will be instructive to see how the president chooses to deal with this. Some actions portend a serious approach. Others are more worrisome. Still other issues are being cited as having put so much pressure on the new president-elect as to lead to some worrisome physical challenges. Whether we voted for him or not, all Americans should want the new president to succeed. However, as President Bush saw in his terms, facing external threats did not inoculate one from harsh criticism of one's actions.

Late Addition: 24 hour news outlets are being used by people like the Mumbai terrorists to seek out their victims. We know that the terrorists were using Blackberries to communicate with each other. It now appears they were also using CNN to track down tourists who had escaped their roundup. Hostage emptor.

Last Addition: The best summary of the attacks is here at the Wall Street Journal.

A special Thanksgiving message

This placard was placed by a SEAL recovering from tough wounds in a military hospital. He was aware of some reporters that wanted to use him as an example of the challenges still going on in the War on Terror in the waning days of the Bush Administration. He decided to head them off at the pass.

Best of health to you, Navy.

PS...bet he does "fully recover."

Late Addition: A little more about this SEAL

Florida redux

Those of you who remember the long Florida recount and the "hanging chad" controversy will recognize the strategy of the supporters of Democratic candidate Al Franken as the recount of his election contest with Senator Norm Coleman moves forward in Minnesota. Franken is acting as if it is only a matter of time until the seat is his and he is installed in the Senate.

It should be a long and fractious affair if initial trends hold true throughout. The above example of a ballot being challenged by Franken's people as a "dubious vote for Coleman" is liable to not only end in a victory for Franken but also cement the Democratic party as the party of election theft.

After the Gregoire-Rossi fiasco in 2004, Republicans across the country are convinced that it is only a matter of time before this contest is purloined from Senator Coleman and the mantra of "every vote must be counted" is corrected to "every one of OUR votes must be counted."

We have become a banana republic.

Going forward, most of my political posts will be at my "Chairman Barry" blog, linked to the side of this one.

Thoughts on the election

Throughout the election, I tried to keep my posts on THIS blog (my two others, linked on the side, are definitely partisan) non-partisan.

I am working on some pretty heavy projects right now (new summer classes, a book, etc.) so I just want to put a link here to National Review Senior Editor Jay Nordlinger's post election comments.

I just want to say, that there is hardly a single word I would change...except I don't have the strong feeling about the abortion issue that most conservatives have.

This is a column to bookmark. I dread an Obama presidency. I think the guy is such an empty suit...in a dangerous world, it's a bad time to have an amateur who is little more than the winner of the biggest American Idol competition to date. I hope I'm wrong.

I fear I'm not.

For those of my ideology...

I have a post up on Lincoln's Ghost about my ideological views on the election.

Click the link on the side of this page...only for those who want political opinion...you have been warned!

Coach

John Edwards was right

That's the big lesson I learned last night.

Elections tell us a lot about the American voter. Last night I learned that there truly are two Americas.

I suspected that many Americans were ready to try European-style socialism. I was right about that.

Longtime radio commentator Paul Harvey had one of his most quoted homilies about America and creeping socialism.

He said: "In America there are people pulling the wagon and people riding on the wagon.
We've always had many more pulling than riding.
But more and more people are jumping on and riding on the wagon.
Someday, there will be so many riders, they will be able to outvote the people
who are pulling. When that happens, the America we have known will be dead."

That may seem to be an overreaction, but that is what I was thinking last night watching the voters elect Barack Obama and large Democrat majorities in both houses of Congress. Elections have consequences and the results of this one will be particularly interesting to watch. They are also very representative of our national thinking.

For many decades, the American voter has switched control of the US government from one party to another. This year was no different. John McCain, God bless him, is a real American hero, but he had a stiff wind blowing in his face, especially with the economic meltdown of a month ago.

Barack Obama promised many options for the American voter:

The chance to expunge some of the taint of slavery and Jim Crow from American history

A turn towards socialism. McCain thought this would hurt Obama in the last few weeks. Obama never fully refuted the label...because it was part of his appeal.

The antidote to Bush. Obama was much of what Bush was not: eloquent, socialist, pro-new Europe, non-interventionist, Democrat, urban, Northern, and non-white. After 8 years of media Bush-bashing, the market for this was huge.

One in 5 of Bush voters from 2004, voted for Obama. Republicans need to find out why. Only 16% of Hillary voters from the primaries voted for McCain, not nearly as many as Republican operatives had hoped.

What happens now? Will he govern by "reaching across the aisle" as he promised or as a fierce partisan. The early signs, only hours into his election, are not encouraging. Rahm Emmanuel is Dick Cheney on steroids. What will he do in his first few months?

A lot, probably. Obama has huge majorities in both houses of Congress to work with. Except for the most extreme proposals, which the Republicans COULD filibuster in the Senate (which I don't think they will), Obama will get everything passed that he wants. That's good and bad. For both sides. He now owns it. There isn't even the faintest straw man of a Republican opposition to blame for any problems now. That doesn't mean that he won't get a hugely long honeymoon from his minions in the US news media. He will get years of passes from "it's gonna take a long time to undo 8 years of damage that Bush did to the country." This may or may not last to the congressional elections in 2010. There were some Republicans who actually bucked the trend last night and had some victories, unlike the blood bath the GOP suffered in 2006. But for the most part, Obama will be given a much longer honeymoon after this election than President Bush was given after 9/11. It helps to have the US news media on your side as cheerleaders. Polls before the election showed that even the voters knew the media was in the tank for Obama.

Some of our enemies already see the opportunities out there. Russia hasn't even slept off the vodka hangover from celebrating Obama's election before throwing down the gauntlet.

Nor will the Islamic extremists wait for the new president to be inaugurated from taking steps to bring their customs and laws into the American financial system. Stunning, isn't it? And the Iranians wasted no time, either. Welcome to the majors, Mr. Obama.

And expect President-elect Obama to push for several pieces of legislation that could have a serious long-term impact on American society. How will the media report these things? If Americans don't understand their effects until they have become law, how will we ever have a public debate about them? Here is a list from a reporter on National Review Online:

* Employee Free Choice Act
* Fairness Doctrine(translation: get Limbaugh, Hannity, O'Reilly, etc off the air)
* Freedom of Choice Act
* Nationalization of health care
* Estate tax increases
* "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" (driver's licenses for illegals)
* Capital gains tax increases
* Defense cuts
* Liberal judicial appointments
* Racial and ethnic preferences
* Income tax increases
* Bans on oil drilling
* Global poverty tax/Kyoto

Jim Geraghty at NRO has a long-time mentor who goes back to the Goldwater campaign who had some helpful thoughts about last night's results for despondent Republicans. I link those here...wise observations from a wizened veteran.

So...if you are happy about Obama's win, congratulations! He will certainly have the reins of power under our system to meet most, if not all, of his campaign promises of substance. If you are upset about his election, then realize that the congressional elections of 1994 were used to rein in the lurch to the left of the Clinton Administration and brought the Republicans to power in both houses of Congress for the first time since before FDR.

Flying under the radar is the additional governorships and state legislatures captured by the Democrats in the election. This is significant because after the 2010 census, the state legislatures will have the power to redraw congressional districts to favor the party in power in that state. This is called gerrymandering, and it has a lot to do with why you always seem to have a congressman from a certain political party in your district. It's as close to job security as there is in politics. It may not be fair, but it's legal...and it's completely bi-partisan. Both sides do it when in power. So if the Republicans don't make a huge comeback on the state government level, then the Democrats will be even harder to dislodge in the 2012 election.

The Democrats also made huge inroads, over 2004, in some key demographic groups. Hispanic Americans, now the largest minority in the USA, voted heavily for the Democratic party. However, when one looks at the various ballot initiatives around the country, you seen some very strange things. Every state that voted on gay marriage in some way saw gay marriage opposed everywhere, even in California. The victory of California's initiative, called Proposition 8, is most curious...until one looks at the polling data. One would think that Californians would vote FOR gay marriage. And the white population of the Golden State did. What is most interesting is that it's narrow victory seems to be due to the 70-30% margin of AFRICAN-AMERICANS who voted for the Prop 8's ban on gay marriage. So will California African-American Obama supporters be called anti-gay? It's a strange world.

At this point, unless some huge event happens between now and 2012 to change the dynamics, Barack Obama will be a heavy favorite for re-election in 2012.

All in all, I am glad it is over. I may have a few more post-mortem posts to make on this election. I had started this blog in order to talk about all sorts of cultural issues, not just politics. But this was a most fascinating year. How could I not get heavily into it?

So I will move along with other projects, including a book, I hope, and still expect to post things on this blog from time to time.

Thanks for reading...and congratulations to President-elect Obama. When I think of my memories of traveling through the Jim Crow south as a youngster, it's one of those things that, whether one supported his candidacy or not, makes you feel proud to be an American!

God Bless America!

Coach

Who is Sarah Palin?

The two examples imbedded here are amongst the few more tasteful Photoshop jobs circulating on the internet. Few persons have had a more visceral impact on the public concept of American politics than Alaska governor Sarah Palin. Back in September, if you scroll down a few blog posts, you will find this comment by me:

Palin's selection has led some Republicans to conclude that McCain is setting up the party for a conservative agenda for years to come with the Alaska governor's promotion and exposure to a national audience. Even should McCain lose this election, she has become a world-recognized figure. She will not become a trivia question like Geraldine Ferraro did after the 1984 election.

I was going to make a big post on this, but since I started this post I came across a couple of articles that express my vision much more eloquently.

The first is from my idol, Victor Davis Hanson. He says it all here.

The second is actually a pretty good assessment of what the future holds as we consider the likelihood of an Obama presidency. I don't agree with everything Mr. Taylor says here, but he asks some questions and makes some judgments that the adoring media seem incapable of addressing at this point.

I foresee a future, 20 years or so hence, where many people will wonder what were thinking...sort of like in 1976...

It is my expectation that I will post perhaps one, at most two, more posts before the election. That's about all I can emotionally deliver at this point.

I would hope that after the election (and I can't wait to get to that point), if I keep this blog going, that it will deal much more with cultural, and especially technological, issues going forward.

Thanks to all who have enjoyed this blog...it certainly has been unforgettable.

Coach

Understanding the Panic of 2008

From 1982 to 1990, I worked as a retail investment broker. I have seen this movie before.

It was October 19, 1987 and we had already had a 20% decline from the highs in the 2700 range and started the day at 2247. The Dow Jones Industrials had fallen almost 4% on the previous Wednesday, and over 4% the previous Friday. I had actually seen a decline coming and had purchase put options, a way to profit on declines, a few weeks before. I was so proud of my brilliance (I was a early thirties-year old idiot know-it-all) and sold my puts late that Friday, the 16th, having tripled my money. I believed in leaving some money for "the next guy". Besides, this had to be the bottom...right?

Wrong. I made $6,000 from that trade. had I sold them late on the 19th or early on the 20th, I would have made $150,000 from that $3,000 "investment." This is a good place to note that, while I didn't lose any major money during these times, neither did I make any. I gave my profits back in other dumb ways which are too embarrassing to mention here. What it DID teach me is that playing with the big elephants is a good way to get trampled and I also learned that our financial system is being played, by some, as a big lottery.

I digress.

I am so glad I am no longer in that business. It was interesting to see that the latest "game" had the same kind of effect as the last one. The previous game was called "program trading" or also "index arbitrage." If you want to know more about THAT game, clicky on the links.

This latest game was known as "mortgage backed securities." This one was started by Congress who live by the old adage from our friend Msr. De Toqueville

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.

In this case, Congress was giving incentives, and later punishing those who didn't "participate", for banks to lend money to people who were bad credit risks. Now, this goes on all the time in our world today. How many times have we seen floods of credit card solicitations come in for our high school or college aged children. They have no visible means of support and yet banks are falling over themselves to lend them money...at 19%. At that rate, you can absorb a fairly healthy default rate. BTW, I would keep my eye on this rate as the next several months go by...this is our next area of weakness. Again, I digress...

So eventually, we hit a rough spot for many cities in the economy and these bad credit risks lived up to their reputation. Now, the piper must be paid, but the taxpayer is the one with the bill.

Who do we blame? First and foremost, it's CONGRESS. They passed the bills that made this kind of lending not only attractive and possible, but in some cases, almost mandatory. Getting little notice is that organizations like ACORN, the Obama campaign-linked organization getting press for the accusations in 13 states of voter fraud, has it's tracks in the sub-prime mess as well. ACORN would often tell large banking institutions that wanted to merge within the city limits of major US urban areas that they would have the deals held up in court unless they agreed to do more lending in red-lined urban areas; areas that had been avoided by banks because of the bad credit risks of the inhabitants of those areas.

Don't expect any of this to become widely public until after the election.

The sad thing about this whole mess is that the voters seem about to give more power to the people who caused this whole mess: the Barney Franks and Chris Dodds of Congress...and a former ACORN lawyer, former "community activist"...named Barack Obama.

Remembering what's important

I spend much of everyday sailing through an endless number of blogs, news articles, and forum posts that keep me informed on what's going on in the world. Obviously, much of it has been about the election. Sometimes we forget that there are US soldiers fighting in remote areas of the world, keeping us safe.

As I said a few days ago, Iraq seems to have settled down so much, that the "War on Terror" seems out of mind. I refuse to call it that any more. Terror is a tactic, not an enemy. The enemy is radical violent Islamofascism, more dangerous than Hitler, 1940s Imperial Japan, or even the old Soviet Union. That's because they are everywhere. The 19 September 11th hijackers lived here for sometime before launching their "Pearl Harbor."

Today, we have some of America's most dedicated servants of our nation in places working to fight those who plan to hit us again. Much of the worst of it is going on in Afghanistan. I came across this piece in one of my news media surfing sessions. It was eloquent, even-handed, and passionately courageous. It's from a young man who, on his third tour of the Middle East, as a National Guard member, was just killed by an IED in Afghanistan. I really want you, dear reader, to READ THIS WHOLE LETTER. I have bolded certain sections if you must skim. Men like Captain de Solenni need to remembered, thanked, defended, and given our highest mental and physical support. Now, from a letter of a few weeks ago by the late Capt. de Solenni to Crescent City, California Triplicate reporter Adam Madison:

Hi Adam, my name is Capt. Bruno de Solenni and I am writing you in regards to your article that I finally was able to read online.

I really wasn't sure what to expect, especially nowadays with some of the crap that you read in the news. I will say that I was surprised and pleased that it wasn't over-sensationalized and you kept a good theme on the topic.

I guess the main reason I am writing you is to thank you for your support and the point of view that you took on the article. I know that sometimes it is difficult to actually print something without being biased and taking just one side. But I will tell you the truth and give you an honest opinion about my life in the National Guard, about the war over here and many of the decisions leading to my third tour in the Middle East.

First off, when I first joined the National Guard, back in 1996, I had no idea that I would be here today. I do remember making the decision on Christmas Day when I was about 20 years old and felt like I was going nowhere with my life and needed to take a new direction. As my father and mother had stated earlier, I was always fascinated with history and the military, and was amazed at some of the hardships my grandfather endured in both WWI and WWII.

So the following Monday on the 26th I called a recruiter, and took the asvab test on the 27th in Eureka. Three days later I was down at the Oakland Meps station getting sworn in as a 62E (heavy equipment operator). When they asked when I wanted to go to Basic, I told them, "how about next week?" and they kind of laughed at me and explained that the soonest they could get me in was 30 days. On the 29th I boarded a plane and my life was forever changed, without me even knowing what lay ahead.

Eventually, a few years after joining, I did decided to go back to college at Southern Oregon University in Ashland, Ore., where there was a GOLD (Guard Officer Leadership Development) program that allowed me to earn a federal commission as an Army officer while I continued to work toward my degree (which the National Guard also paid for).

In a sense, I was doing exactly what the National Guard said I could do if I joined … Finally, on May 11, 2001, I received my commission as a young, immature, 2nd lieutenant full of piss and vinegar still not knowing exactly what I was getting into.

When Sept. 11 happened, it was then that I realized that things were going to be very different for me and the rest of this country. One month later our battalion received the alert order that we would mobilize the following year to fill in on the current MFO (Multi National Force and Observers) mission in Sinai, Egypt. After returning from Egypt, I was home for eight months before volunteering again to go to Iraq for OIF II. It was there I truly (became) an infantry officer and learned a lot about myself and people in general.

Upon my return from Iraq, I was positive about what was going on there but very resentful at the way the media was covering the war over there. In my own view, I personally feel that some of the media deliberately fueled that war based on their own biased political views and I still hold them accountable for their actions.

Something that still upsets me is the fact that they exploited some of the crimes soldiers committed over there as a reflective view to the rest of the world of what our armies stood for. I am not saying that we didn't make mistakes, we did make them and we have painfully corrected them.

After returning from Iraq I took a break and just stuck to the one weekend a month traditional Guard and used my experiences from Iraq to lead a recon/sniper platoon out of the Grants Pass Armory for about 2.5 years. Then I received the opportunity to come to Afghanistan and work as an Embedded Trainer with the Afghanistan Army.

Some of the biggest dilemmas that I think we have faced here are mostly the fact that Afghanistan seems to have been put on the back burner up until a few months ago when the casualties here began to exceed those in Iraq where there are four times as many soldiers. Our true problems here are definitely reflective of the Pakistani border and the lack of troops covering it, which has been an issue for years and is being exploited by the Taliban as they train freely in Pakistan, unopposed by anyone.

In my opinion, Afghanistan does need a troop surge of American soldiers as well, otherwise we will only be able to sustain combat operations with minimal effect of containing Taliban insurgents. As I speak about this, these are only my views and opinions based on my experiences.

Even though I am now recuperating in the rear and doing fine, much of my time along with other teammates has been spent in the Helmand Province working with a handful of British soldiers in small isolated FOBs conducting offensive operations with the Afghan National Army. Our task is to mentor them during combat operations and to provide both air support and indirect fire support, which seems to sometimes be a daily necessity over here.

The good days over here are when we are truly sticking it to the Taliban in a firefight that is in our favor and you just dropped 130 105mm rounds on their position. Or when a ... hot F-15 pilot flies over your head strafing the Taliban with his Vulcan cannons.

The (bad) days are when you are covering up your your sergeant major from being exposed to the dust-out of a Chinook helicopter that is landing to medivac him out. At the same time he cries because he doesn't want to leave his team as he lies there half paralyzed with shrapnel in him, while fluids are coming out of his eyes and ears signifying severe brain trauma, (meaning we cant give him morphine).

The bad days are when you put your buddy in a body bag and you don't even recognize him because his limbs are missing and there holes in him everywhere. The miracles are when his last words are, "tell my wife and kids I love them," before he dies in his best friend's arms after struggling for several agonizing minutes to get the words out because there is a fist-size hole in his head.

And last but not least, the best days are when an Afghan comes up to you thanking you for everything that you have done to help them and for making their (home) a better place now that the Taliban are gone.

If anything, this is probably the biggest reason why I proudly enjoy being over here. I can't explain it to anyone and there is no description of what it feels like, but it was the same feeling I got when I was in Iraq as well. And I am sure it's the same feeling that generations of American soldiers before me have gotten as they fought and sacrificed their lives for the freedoms that we enjoy today.

Perhaps the biggest thing that has made being over here much more bearable, is the amount of public support that we have received from people. Getting a care package or a letter of support when you are out in the middle of nowhere from a complete stranger, thanking you, does make the day seem a little better.

I would especially like to thank my Aunt Jan Martin, and The local Troop Support organization who have provided care packages to soldiers serving overseas and have volunteered endless hours of their time and energy making our lives easier. The British soldiers (who don't get anything) are extremely grateful as well.

Along with this, I would especially like to thank the members of the VFW who donated several hundred dollars of G.I. shirts to the company of Afghans that I have been mentoring. You have all truly made my life and my job easier. Without your support, life would not be as pleasant.

Last but not least I would truly like to thank everyone who has supported the soldiers and the efforts toward supporting these wars even when there wasn't an end in sight. Until about 6 months ago there wasn't a news outlet that was saying that the Iraq war was winnable and that this was another vietnam in the making. Had we let the politicians get ahold of this war it would have been.

Fortunately our president (who is not perfect) has stood his ground against the naysayers who deliberately exploited the death of American soldiers for their own political gain, showing no regard to their families and loved ones who are still mourning them to this day.

I can understand what it was like for Vietnam veterans who returned from the war and were spat upon for wearing their uniform and standing up for what they believed in. Unfortunately this is still all-too-true for many of the British soldiers returning home to their own country. There are even certain ethnic religious neighborhoods where they cannot even wear their uniforms because they will be beat up in their own country.

I pray to God we never come to that and thank the fact that what has changed drastically between Vietnam and now is that even if the public doesn't support the war, they still support troops which makes a huge difference. This is especially comforting if you are one of those soldiers walking through the airport wearing your uniform and coming home on leave or returning from a deployment.

Once again, I cannot thank everyone enough for their support and all that they have done …

Sincerely,

Capt. Bruno de Solenni

God speed Captain de Solenni.

"Where do we get such men?"
James Michener, Bridges at Toko-ri, 1953

What will be the deciding factors?

Whew. What a week. From financial crisis, to Obama's possible violation of the Logan Act, to Sarah Palin's email getting hacked (and since he was critical of it, Bill O'Reilly's website) to McCain calling for the scalp of Chris Cox of the SEC.

What is going on here?

Besides a heated and close election, it's a critical period of deciding who is going to lead the free world during a time of financial tsunamis, culture wars, and the constant threat of Islamofascism. Where do I start?

Let's start with the war, because it actually leads to Obama's scrape with what has been considered to be a long-time tradition of not interfering with the US government's ability to negotiate agreements with foreign powers.

The war in Iraq seems to winding down. Both parties seem to be admitting that, although the Democrats remain convinced that this war was not just a mistake but an act that put the country in bigger danger than it was. I don't intend to get into that issue, having covered it before. But it did lead to a meeting that Obama had with the foreign minister of Iraq during his trip in this summer that has led to a minor firestorm. Many Americans believe that the US news media has been openly slanting the news in favor of Obama over the last several months. Go back and read my last few posts on the polling data on that. It is the opinion of a large majority of Americans, even many of Obama's own supporters.

I guarantee you that if McCain had done this, you would never have heard the end of it. But since that is true of so many things at this point in the election, let's not waste our time.

Amir Taheri of the NY Post wrote an article stating that Obama had requested that the Iraqis hold off on completing their withdrawal agreement with the United States until after our elections had chosen a new president and a new Congress. Of course, Obama was expecting that the elections would produce a more Democratic Congress and a new Democratic president: Barack Obama. The Iraqis were understandibly taken aback by this interference in the negotiations by an opposition leader; this is the kind of brazen ploy you would expect from a banana republic, not the most powerful nation on earth. In case you think I am overstating the problem, and the tradition of non-interference in US foreign policy, please read this summary article by Taheri on the events and their meaning. More than anything, it communicates to many foreign leaders that Obama is...well...different. Perhaps he should have gotten better advice, since he is new at foreign policy, but it's not like his 300 advisors couldn't have caught him before he went overseas and said to him, "This trip is to listen, not to tell them what you want."

The Logan Act goes all the way back to the John Adams administration, and while the Obama campaign has forcefully argued that Obama was misinterpreted by Taheri...well, as you can see by the article, he claims he was only going by what Obama and foreign minister Zebari said about the meeting. This issue may come up in the debate this Friday in Mississippi, when foreign policy is supposed to be the main topic.

Let's address the financial crisis. This is an area where I have had some personal experience, having been involved in retail financial management before my career change into teaching. I strong urge you to read this succinct article by Jim Manzi in NRO. Forget that it is a conservative magazine, this guy understands the credit markets. This is, in the end, NOT a partisan issue, although it may be impossible for a while because of the campaign. But it IS about our financial survival as we try to dodge the iceberg looming in front of our ocean liner. Meanwhile, you can realistically expect both candidates to blame the party or backers of the other candidate. Which one will voters trust to handle this minefield?

Who is to blame? Frankly, I think it's the one entity that ALWAYS gets away with being complicit but never held responsible in this country: CONGRESS. They decided to allow the quasi-government lending authorities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the authority to basically lend mortgage money to borrower who past experience has shown are likely to be unable to repay the money. This article shows that the first big move in this direction goes all the way back to the Clinton years. And it was all to increase home ownership of a large voting population that generally votes Democratic. But Republicans went along because who wants to vote against minorities owning homes: are you a racist or something? If not, then VOTE FOR IT!!

It's much easier to blame a single person: the president, the speaker, a majority leader, than to blame 535 elected officials. But that is who makes the laws. These are the people who are fulfilling the prophecy of Alexis de Tocqueville in 1831. The Frenchman made a statement, in his brilliant analysis of the new republic,Democracy in America, when he said

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.

Of course, the New York Times suggests that President Bush is to blame. For once, the Washington Post disagrees, but then they have to find some way to be distinguishable from the Gray Lady from time to time. The blatant bias of the news media this year has been...historic. William Randolph Hearst, of "yellow journalism" fame, would be proud.

On the Palin email front...where are all the civil liberties groups and their outrage? The sound of crickets from the neighborhood of the ACLU and People for the American Way is deafening. Conservative women don't have rights...they can only be accused of violating them. Especially if they want someone fired who tasers a 11 year old child. I'm sure we'll get more breathless stories from the 30 odd muckrakers going through the Wasilla archives looking for more breaking stories about the governor's college transfers and her brother-in-law's scrapes with the law TWENTY YEARS AGO. Important information in these boring news days...

And what of McCain's call for the firing of SEC Chairman Chris Cox? Was he overreacting? Perhaps. This was not the time to put a new man in charge of the SEC when things are this tense. This faux pas rings of Obama's mistaken notion that the place to solve the Georgian crisis was the Security Council of the UN, where Russia has a veto and would certainly use it to kill any attempt to sanction Russia for it's invasion of the tiny former USSR republic. But considering that we may have only been hours away from a total financial meltdown on Thursday, perhaps his outrage that more oversight wasn't evident from the financial market's watchdog could be understandable. Senator Obama claimed that McCain "panicked", but then Obama's response on Friday was basically "I'll get back to you."

Finally, the guys who would like to kill all Americans were busy tonight. The Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan was bombed. That is the picture you see at the top. Reports say they may have been after some high level CIA or US military personnel in the attack. Of course, you have to wonder who had the information as to the name and location of said US personnel. This week has certainly been a reminder of what a dangerous world it is; dangerous to your financial, moral, political, and physical health. The nation will be choosing the man responsible for protecting Americans in just 45 days.

Edit: If you think I am wrong about the war in Iraq having turned around, read this article this morning by this stunned reporter in the New York Times, of all places.

A fundamental change in fortunes?

I want to apologize for not putting up a new blog post earlier. It seems that once school starts that my focus stays on the job that I am getting paid for!

There is no question that it has been a intense few weeks since John McCain showed that the old fighter pilot still has it in him to surprise people with his selection of Alaska governor Sarah Palin. To those of us who follow politics, the governor's poise and conservative views are familiar characteristics of this 44-year old "hockey mom."

The governor was the subject of an unprecedented examination by the mainstream (and tabloid) media the likes of which we have never seen. Some will argue that she has come through that with varying degrees of success. If there are some alarming discoveries, don't expect that this would be necessarily released as soon as it is discovered. Scandals and damaging stories are most effective when they come out in a drip-drip-drip fashion. The problem for Obama has been the slew of hard questions about him AND his running mate. Biden's son resigned his position as a lobbyist because of accusations that it undermines Obama's assertion that he doesn't seek the aid of the K Street lobbysts. McCain has run a series of hard-hitting ads on Obama and his positions on education, Iraq, the economy, and the consistent questions about his readiness to lead or the consistency of his "hope and change" mantra with moments such as the "lipstick on a pig" comments. All of this has put Obama on the defensive where no candidate wants to be with 7 weeks to go in an election.

Palin agreed to a thorough grilling by ABC anchor Charlie Gibson that will be analyzed for the next several weeks but seems to have had a net neutral at the worst.

Now comes evidence that ABC edited her interview in order to make her look more extreme to the viewers. When you realize that the McCain campaign was accused of "protecting" Governor Palin from the media, and then see the way they chopped up her responses in the interview with Gibson, you can understand the McCain campaign's reluctance to have Mrs. Palin defined by the skill of the editor's knife. Disgraceful. I anticipate that one of the unintended consequences of this election will be the complete exposure of the near criminal bias of our national news media. This isn't just my opinion. Poll after poll after poll has shown that a large majority of the voters believe that the media is biased in favor of Senator Obama. When you have something as important as a presidential election in the hands of editors who can make anyone look extreme or stupid by the use of the editing room, that is unacceptable. Who do these people think they are? They are no longer the unquestioned "gatekeepers" of knowledge and opinion. The new media, led by internet bloggers and YouTube videos, are the Davids that will sink the stone in the forehead of the media Goliaths. I can't say that many will cry a river for them when it is over. There is a certain sense of schadenfreude about watching their earnings and stock price decline as well.

I will leave it to each reader to judge her qualifications (certainly there has been a wide range of persons chosen to be vice-president in our nation's history...witness Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Dan Quayle or Harry Truman...quite a diverse group). What I want to analyze in this post is the effect it has had on the race.

There is no question that it has energized McCain personally, and much of what we call "the Republican base." This means mainly conservative Republicans, who have often looked askance at McCain because of his open criticisms of President Bush and a willingness to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats rather than assail or defeat them. This "maverick" nature is a characteristic that appeals to some Democrats and many independents. Will he be able to keep both groups satisfied?

Palin's selection has led some Republicans to conclude that McCain is setting up the party for a conservative agenda for years to come with the Alaska governor's promotion and exposure to a national audience. Even should McCain lose this election, she has become a world-recognized figure. She will not become a trivia question like Geraldine Ferraro did after the 1984 election.

Already this wider question of the impact on the race is being answered with a consistent reading of the polling data. Just about every major national poll is showing the race either tied or with a slight McCain lead. See here, here, here and here. This is quite a reversal from the end of the Democratic Convention. Could this simply be a factor of McCain's "convention bounce?" Yes, perhaps. If this coming week ends with things basically unchanged, then McCain has gone from being the underdog to the front-runner.

It seems the Obama campaign's internal polling must be showing them at least the same kind of movement as they announced a major revision of their campaign strategy just the other day. This also came in the wake of Obama's two-hour meeting with the last Democrat to win the presidency: Bill Clinton. Ironically, as successful as Mr. Clinton has been in his own election fortunes, his record of helping others get elected, when he campaigns for them, is pretty poor; note that his wife is watching these events from the sidelines...except in states where she can raise money to retire her campaign debt! His emotional stability has even been called into question when he was campaigning for his wife this past year.

Some of Obama's "new strategy" ads blew up in his face immediately. He tried to use a whimsical approach accusing McCain of being out of touch because he doesn't personally read his email. The fact is, that it was widely reported, in McCain's last run for the presidency that because of his torture in a North Vietnamese prison, he CAN'T use a keyboard. But as ranking member of the Senate Subcommittee on Technology, he was one of the first in that august body to use the Web and he has always dictated his emails to his wife Cindy so that he can stay on top of things. This is an amazing goof by the Obama camp...and ironically, one that a simple Google search would have prevented. This does not inspire public confidence that Obama is careful before he opens fire on his enemies and calls into question whether his staff is "ready for prime time."

But national polls are little more than media fodder, the real fight is in the states. In this area, things are even more alarming for the Obama Camp. Suddenly, states that Gore and Kerry won against Mr. Bush are in play. Polling in "blue" states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, even New Jersey, are putting McCain in striking distance. Western blue states may soon come into play, as Washington now seems to be. Look for McCain to use western Palin to appeal to those states such Nevada, Oregon, and Washington (she and her husband are dyed-in-the-wool Seattle Seahawk fans). Add in her midwestern-type of twang, and you will see a lot of Sarah in the midwest in these last few weeks.

Keep in mind what I have been saying for months now. Watch where the candidates go...this will tell you what their internal polling is showing. Also remember that Obama still has the tougher challenge: he must turn some "red" states "blue. But he must do that while holding all his blue states. It does him no good to pick off New Mexico, Colorado or Iowa if McCain captures Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Finally, Obama has to also watch his back. Hillary must appear to help him while hoping he goes down to ignominious defeat so that she can be the "I told you so" candidate in 2012. Her problem is she better watch what she wishes for as a Vice-President Palin may steal much of her appeal should a President McCain choose to only serve one term and retire at 76.

And while he has his eye on the ball, he must survive second-guessing by his party. Now polls are showing huge movements in the public at large towards the Republicans that could change the make-up of the Congress. Only 33 seats in the 100 seat Senate and even a worse-case scenario makes it likely that the Democrats should at least enlarge their slim majority in that body by a few seats. But all 435 seats come up for grabs every two years in the House of Representatives. Most of the seats that the Democrats won to retake control in 2006 were won by slight 53-47 type margins. If the public, which has given this Congress record-low approval ratings, decides to put the Republicans back in control, Nancy Pelosi's short-lived reign as Speaker of the House will come to an end. Keep your eye on whether the Democrats give in on the congressional ban on off-shore drilling. Polls continue to show that off-shore drilling remains a popular strategy with a wide-range of voters.

All in all, it continues to be one of the most fascinating election campaigns in US history...and when you consider that we started with a knockdown drag out in 1796 between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, that's saying quite a lot!

A late edit...I am working on a response to Whoopi Goldberg's widely covered comment during McCain's visit to The View yesterday about whether she should be concerned about "should I be concerned about being a slave again" to McCain's views about appointing Supreme Court justices who would simply interpret the Constitution as written by the Framers and not try to write laws from the bench. Look for that post on my other blog "Lincoln's Ghost" by clicking at the link on the sidebar. Thanks.

Important Update on Sarah Palin

Check out the People Magazine article...

Meanwhile, the attacks on her have begun...go here for a pretty good response.

Alaskan Earthquake

On March 27, 1964, the most powerful earthquake in modern North American history hit 75 miles east of Anchorage Alaska.

Today, August 29, 2008, a second Alaskan event hit the 2008 Presidential campaign: Governor Sarah Palin was announced as John McCain's VP pick. Is that street Barack Obama's presidential hopes?

Ok, perhaps a cheap analogy, but the biggest thing this unexpected bombshell announcement did is send the mainstream media scrounging for background information on Governor Palin, as opposed to continuous fawning praise for Obama's rock concert and acceptance speech last night. Obama's speech is now ancient history. Palin in the media's new hot property.

Wow. Just Wow. Who knew the "old man" had it in him to gamble like this.

It's certain that the media and Democrat pundits will try to paint this as a desperate move to reach out to disgruntled Hillary supporters. But this is much more. This is a way to keep the more moderate McCain as the standard bearer for the party while energizing the base that elected George Bush in the last two elections.

Everyone, Republican hierarchy included, was surprised by this move. The media were stunned and the Democrats were so speechless that their initial response was unseemly and bitter. It was quickly replaced as it became clear that this was not consistent with the theme of "hope and change."

What was the initial Obama campaign response? You won't believe it.

“Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency. Governor Palin shares John McCain’s commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade, the agenda of Big Oil and continuing George Bush’s failed economic policies — that’s not the change we need, it’s just more of the same,” said Bill Burton, Obama Campaign Spokesman.

AS the Brits say, "bad form, old chap." A second "kinder and gentler" response was posted an hour or so later, and survives on the Obama website, but the damage had been done. Several pro-Hillary websites have been working and hoping that Hillary would get on the Dem ticket. When she was passed over for longtime Senator Joe Biden, they vowed to back McCain or perhaps stay home in November. Now, under the banner of PUMA (Party Unity My A**), they are strongly behind the McCain ticket, having a "filly" in the race. To quote one of the websites with the most "web hits", "Uppity Woman":

You blew it Barky. Iron our shirts.

(Barky is a term many Obama opponents use because of his clipped diction when he is in "attack mode")

What kind of impact will this have on the race? Isn't this a risky choice for McCain?

Yes, it is. I encourage you to read some articles on Governor Palin here, here, here, here, and here. Be patient with that last one...they crashed the Alaska website today! She will bring some controversy to the dance, so to speak. But she also brings some fire into the campaign. McCain seems unconcerned that she will carry some of the attention for a while. He's been there quite a lot. It shows that he cares about uniting his base; it's uncertain from the polling data if Obama's choice of Biden did much for the Democrats. It also shows that he is willing to take risks. He had drawn the race to even in the last few weeks; some polls even showed him with a slight lead.

Obama had withdrawn some advertising from some key states right before the convention, essentially conceding those states. This will also allow McCain to concentrate more on the states he feels he needs to either secure, or turn from blue to red, in order to be elected. But it does something else.

With conservatives, some of whom had grumbled about McCain's nomination, talking about staying home, they are suddenly enervated about the selection of a pro-life, hunting, fishing, and oil drilling Governor Palin. She is also young enough to have a bright future in the Republican party, after McCain's 2nd term...or even after only his first, should he choose to only serve one term. Wouldn't a race between Vice President Palin and Hillary Clinton be delicious?

Finally, it's also the kind of choice that will open some wallets for the ticket. This will have a short term benefit since McCain will not be able to spend any more of his donated money once the Republican convention is over, since he has chosen to accept public financing for his campaign. But what is MOST important for McCain is that all those volunteers who helped elect Bush but were going to "sit this one out" now will get behind this ticket.

And studies have shown that volunteers are much more effective than paid workers.

McCain's military leadership may have shown through here. One of the ways you get to be a top officer is by recognizing leadership skills in others and promoting them. We will see if the former Navy aviator has picked a rising star or gambled it all on a not-ready-for-prime-time governor...

I'm betting the former POW knows what he is doing...

Coach

A relay to Remember

Well, it sure was a thrill for this "coach" to see the incredible determination and grit of the USA's 400 Free Relay last night in Beijing. It may be hard for people to imagine just what a big boost this was for the sport in this country. What? Coach, are you nuts, the USA has dominated this sport for decades!

True, there were years there where if we didn't sweep an event, we were slacking. You didn't see any "third world" countries represented in the Olympics (I doubt if Zimbabwe, for instance, even HAD any Olympic size pools until the last 20 years. Now they have one of the most dominating female swimmers in the world -- Kirsty Coventry. Coventry did her college swimming at Auburn University) Today, the US sometimes has a difficult time getting a swimmer onto the medal platform, as happened last night in the 100 breastroke, where the defending Olympic champion was shut out.

There has been plenty of speculation about the "decline" of US swimming, but most of the difference is the rise of the rest of the world and the welcome proliferation of facilities and experienced coaching. Others speculate that American swimmers are less likely to be willing to sacrifice "a life" to the incredible conditioning and mental focus required to be successful at the world level. In many countries, success in sports is a way for a family to rise above poverty. In the US, there are so many distractions that become road blocks to winning at an Olympic games. Add the fierce attention of the US media and the pressure on US athletes will quickly separate the champions from the also-rans.

But there was something about Sunday night's US freestyle relay that was written as if for a Hollywood movie. There, on the blocks, leading off, was Michael Phelps. Phelps has been touted by the television suits as the next Mark Spitz (and well on the way to living up to that moniker). The US had dominated this event for years until the hometown Aussies took it from them in Sydney in 2000 and the US team had taken a bitter pill in a bronze medal at Athens in 2004. Relay anchorman Jason Lezak had felt the disappointment of the silver medal race in Sydney and had been on that bronze medal Athens team, as had Phelps, and Lezak stated after the race that he had determined that he was NOT going through that again.

The French were the favorites going into the finals. Former 100 meter freestyle world record holder Alain Bernard had shot his mouth off about the race stating, "we are going to smash the Americans. That is what we have come here for." Don't count "le poulet" before it hatches, Alain.

As Bernard took off to complete the French triumph, Lezak seemed too far behind to catch the 6'5" Frenchman. Bernard, called Le Cheval(the Horse) by his countrymen, seemed to throw a shoe in the last 25 meters as the 32 year-old Lezak cast his walker and cane aside as he caught Bernard at the wall by 8/100s of a second.

What was Lezak thinking down the stretch? The years of frustration? The agony of the silver at Sydney and the bronze at Athens?

"I'm not going to lie," Lezak said. "When I flipped at the 50 and I still saw how far ahead he was, and he was the world-record holder 'til about two minutes before that, when Sullivan led off with the world record, I thought, it really crossed my mind for a split second, there's no way.

"Then I changed. I said, you know what, that's ridiculous. This is the Olympics. I'm here for these guys. I'm here for the United States of America. It's more than -- I don't care how bad it hurts, or whatever, I'm just going to go out there and hit it.

"Honestly, in like 5 seconds, I was thinking all these things -- you know, just got like a super charge and took it from there. It was unreal."

Yea, old man. This Perrier's for you!

Coach

The dog days of August

Hi gang! I hope summer is going well for those who enjoy reading this blog. I recently finished my summer adult ed classes so I hope to be more up to date with the blog!

A quick look at the state of the presidential election...

Things have tightened up quite a bit since mid-July. Most polls have the race between a slight Obama lead and a tie. One USA Today poll of likely voters had McCain ahead but for now, we will consider that an outlier since no one else seems to have any results close to it. An outlier is when your polling data somehow falls outside of the statistical margin of error. Weird things can happen with polling, since all it is is an estimate of where public opinion stands at any point in time with a specific population.

But there is little doubt that the comfortable lead Obama once had nationally is gone an it is looking like the close contests we have had in this decade. So where does it stand right now?

On a state by state basis, Obama still looks to be ahead. This is to be expected because this is the peak of the 16 year presidential election cycle that has held true for most of the past century. The only break in that cycle was the special circumstance that led FDR to win 4 elections, followed by Truman's victory. 16 years ago...Bill Clinton...16 years earlier...Jimmy Carter...16 years previous...JFK.It's not perfect, but it certainly fits in well with the rise of the independent voter as party loyalties continue to decline.

After GW Bush benefited from the mid-cycle Republican peak in 2000, it would naturally turn to the Democrats to benefit. This is mainly resulting from the tendency of "independents" to favor one party for 8 years, and then vote differently because it's now "time for the other party to see what it can do." Independents are different kinds of voters than party loyalists; they vote based on what the candidate will most do for "me." After 8 years of Bush and the Republicans, independents would naturally turn to the Democrats to see what they will do for "them." They began this process by electing a Democratic congress in 2006. That has, however, led to a congress with the lowest national approval polling numbers ever.

With the strong national awareness of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as the nation's first woman Speaker of the House, much of the unhappiness about the Congress' latest term might be laid at their feet. Will the 16 year cycle bail them out? Perhaps. But Pelosi and her Democratic party-run Congress are in big trouble with the American people.

Remember how in past posts, I have talked about watching what politicians do more than what they say? When the Democrats rammed through an adjournment for their 5 week summer break last Friday, they succeeded by only one vote and with howls from the Republican House members who wanted a vote on an energy bill that included a removal of the Congressional ban on offshore drilling for US oil companies. Pelosi's answer was that she was "trying to save the planet" but Americans are a basically fair people and they don't like the idea of preventing congressmen from at least debating and then voting on an oil drilling bill when gasoline is at $4 a gallon.

After the adjournment, the Republican house members took to the floor to speak out against these strong-arm tactics, as the Speaker's office mandated the cutoff of CSPAN cameras and the microphones and lights were turned off. This was a major publicity coup for the demoralized Republican members of the house who believe that they have been handed a popular issue that cuts across party lines: gas prices.

What has happened since then? The Republicans continue to show up there every day in the House and speak, even though the mikes and cameras remain off. It's great theater for the large crowds of American vacationers who had expected nothing but empty chambers in the nation's Capitol. What good does this do them?

1) It builds their image of "the party looking out for YOU", and presents the Democrats as the party out playing golf, raising money, and riding in limos, and trying to hype a poorly selling book that has been getting more than it's fair share of spoofing here and here.. It doesn't matter if that is true or not, it plays well. The lack of media coverage is less of a problem in the day of the "new media". Cell phone movies of Republicans calling for congress to come back in session and vote on the drilling bill have been shown on Fox News Channel, web sites, and will continue for the summer. Expect to have those emailed to you all summer.

2) The Republicans must be seeing polling data showing it has hit a chord with the nation, or they would have stopped after the weekend. They are energized as they see the Speaker has put her party in a difficult bind. The longer gas prices stay high, the greater the effect this could have in polling data and in fund raising for a party that has been getting told "NO" by a lot of the donors who helped Bush win re-election. They may not like McCain that much but they would LOVE to return Pelosi to Minority leader. This is still unlikely...but if trends stay strong for a while, it's not unthinkable.

3)The Democrats won their "landslide" congressional victory in 2006 with a number of 53-47 wins. Not many "independents" will have to switch their votes in order for the House up for grabs once again. This would be the Democrats worst nightmare.

Add to that the challenge facing Obama lately, and you can see why the Democrats are getting more nervous every day as we approach the time for the party convention in Denver. Obama is heading to Hawaii for some R & R, but in reality, this is the perfect time to do this as Americans start to tune out politics for a short while and focus on the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Both candidates have bought $5-6 million in advertising in the games. Watch what each choose to show in this prime visibility offering. If they stay with the same theme...or, more importantly, take a different direction, that will be significant.

Obama has much to be worried about of late. Remember that it is a 51 state election, and some very important states are either falling out of his reach or suddenly in play. For example, check out these latest polls from Massachusetts, Oregon, Florida, and Wisconsin(which should be an Obama runaway), just for a few. He is accusing McCain of being in the pocket of Big Oil, but actual campaign contributions paint a very different picture of just who is getting money from "Big Oil." MoveOn.org is planning a number of ads attacking Republicans on the oil issue but even top Obama supporters are concerned that they may backfire on the presumptive nominee.

And Hillary Clinton is waiting in the wings. He is NOT the nominee yet. If just 120 odd superdelegates decide to either switch or abstain on the first ballot, then all bets are off because most committed delegates are free to vote their conscience after the first ballot. Hillary is quietly letting them know that she is still there and can BEAT McCain. She is being very demure about perhaps wanting her name placed in nomination. And Obama has shown his overconfidence by doing what I said he would do someday: argued that all the delegates from Florida and Michigan to have their full representation. She's has to be THRILLED at that...it makes the number needed to cause a second ballot even smaller. Bad move, Barack...fair, but you are up against the Clintons.

And what did Bill mean the other day, when asked about supporting Obama for the nomination that he was "I think everybody's got a right to run for President who qualifies under the Constitution." For the man who wanted to be sure everyone agreed on what the definition of "'is' is", this is a curious statement. Many bloggers are digging into Obama's past wondering why they have been unable to find his birth certificate. Some suspect it's just an "embarrassing" name change, (Indonesian stepfather Lolo Soetolo?) but some question if he was born in the USA. Personally, I think this is garbage, but on the other hand, it's just the kind of thing the Clintons have been known to release as we get close to a big decision in order to "muddy the waters." If a major news outlet deals with this kind of story right before Denver...well, think about "cui bono"...who benefits.

To be sure, with the 16 year presidential cycle at his back, he is still the favorite, even though I would personally not bet on him at this point (Dukakis was ahead of GHW Bush by 13 at this point). A certain amount of "Obama fatigue" is setting in as it seems obvious to many Americans that the press favors him. People are starting to speculate about his short resume...and finding it wanting. He needs to stop making off-hand stumbles like this, this, this, and the symbol at the start of this blogpost.

Meanwhile, Old Tortoise McCain gets the right kind of "regular guy" visibility that are making Joe Six-Pack think about voting Republican for the first time in his life.

McCain survived the Hanoi Hilton...he can certainly take on Barack Obama.