Greetings from the Great White North

I am loving my time here in Canada. I am going to do some listening and asking questions of our neighbors while I'm here. One thing I can say, they are unhappy about how the Leafs are doing...and it seems that, lately, my Blues aren't doing much better.

It was interesting watching the Patriots dash for history up here last night. They love football up here also (not as much as hockey...besides the national sport is officially lacrosse).

Anyway, gonna have some great tea, excellent maple syrup, an occasional Tim Horton's donut and coffee, and going to a flea market later this afternoon.

Talk you later, eh?

Coach

Twas the day before Christmas...

Besides my niece's 4th birthday, there are lots of interesting things in the media last weekend. It was fun to see the mainstream media using an analogy of mine on a commentary today. From now on I will simply call those "media echoes". It probably sounds egotistical of me, because we know few people other than family or friends are reading this blog, but grant me this little delusion of self-importance!

What I am referring to is the comparison of Thompson's campaign to the tortoise and the hair. Scroll down two posts, to the one about the Republicans, and you will see in my paragraph about Fred Thompson's campaign that he was playing tortoise to the "hare-like" campaigns of his rivals. Anyway, a tip of the hat to Jack Kelly at the Post-Gazette.

On the Democrat side, the Obama, Edwards, Clinton death battle goes on unabated. Polls don't work as well in a caucus state, so the pundits are back to staring at the tea leaves to try to decide what to make of Iowa. New Hampshire is much more critical. A disappointing finish there will make a candidate's money stream dry up.

Who's most worried? Today, I would have to say that Edwards must finish at least second in Iowa or begin to fold his tent. He is badly trailing the two leaders in NH. He may not be able to wait for South Carolina.

On the Republican side, Rudy's "tryst" issues have done serious damage to him across the land and Huckabee is trying to make up with Rush Limbaugh after an anonymous aide accused Limbaugh of being part of the nattering DC/NY axis. He needs Limbaugh's minions to make his insurgent campaign competitive outside Iowa. It's not likely, given recent comments, that this will happen. The Republican race seems to be a real horse race with the win place and show spots all in flux.

On the film front, I enjoyed the latest edition of National Treasure at the theater over the weekend. Three cheers for anyone trying to shove a little history into a plotline. Careful kids, you might learn something about your nation!

I have family in town for a few more days, but will try to get more frequent postings after Christmas. It also appears that I may head up to the Great White North to visit friends. Visiting Canada in the winter requires a special kind of insanity. And I'm just the guy to like that kind of challenge!

Merry Christmas to all!

Coach

At all costs...

It's time to talk about "performance enhancing substances" in sports. I love the popular media's search for terminology. We used to call this things like "drugs", "illicit substances", and "doping."

Today we call this practice things like "getting an edge", "injury treatment", and, my personal favorite, "making use of supplements."

Well, here is what the ol' "Coach" thinks. It's very simple. It's called CHEATING, and those who practice it are CHEATERS.

Any questions?

And what of the Republicans

Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee, Paul, Thompson, McCain...who will the Republicans choose?

The purpose of the primary system seems to be a Darwinian method for reaching an electable choice for the two parties. This process is ugly to outsiders but familiar to Americans. For some reason, we begin with the teeny tiny states first. For years, it was New Hampshire that started the process. In recent decades, Iowa and South Carolina have joined the brood.

Actually, the process works much better than people think. By starting in small states, it forces the candidates to get closer to the people...something the winner will get few chances to do one they become president. So we see candidates begging for support at bake sales, pancake breakfasts, and town halls. We are treated to "critical" endorsements from the Union Leader and the Des Moines Register.

So where do the Republicans find themselves? Curiously, they are in full "Tale of Two Cities" mode. It is the best of times, it is the worst of times. The stock market is near all time highs, the war in Iraq has turned surprisingly positive, and the Democrat congress is polling in record depths of unpopularity. On the "worst of times" side, the 6 years of wartime presidency of George W. Bush have seen a long time of negative poll numbers for the president and the credit markets in holding it's breath over the sub-prime market challenge. Even true blue Reagan conservatives have seemed to desert the president, and the current crop of candidates are now distancing themselves from him and trying to portray themselves as the inheritors of the Reagan mantle. No seems to want to be the heir apparent to Mr. Bush even as some begin to ponder whether history will record his eight years more favorably than his peers have.

So...who will it be? Only Ron Paul seems to be a true non-hopeful. While he is able to raise large sums of money based on his 40's era combination of libertarianism and isolationism, it is little more than an irritant to the others at debate time. John McCain has received some nice media endorsements recently but he has always been a darling of the media more than a choice of the Republican base. He is seen by the faithful as the Democrats' favorite Republican. That may be one of his biggest negatives, along with his unpopular stands in favor of more taxes, lax immigration policy, and support of moderate judicial nominations. Add in his age and past bouts with skin cancer and McCain seems the most unlikely choice to gain any kind of momentum over the next several weeks of big primary contests.

Mike Huckabee, the former minister/governor, is the latest flavor of the month. While he has caught fire with many of the evangelicals in the Republican party, meteors tend to burn bright at first and die out quickly. I think there is too much in his policy attitudes to lead to a lot of the Republican base to pull his lever at voting time. His criticism of President Bush will not help him with the Republican base. Perhaps I am wrong...we shall see.

Mitt Romney is showing himself to be presidential, cool under fire, and an attractive TV presence. Don't kid yourself, those things do make a big difference to the general public. They don't follow policy disagreements like the hard core party faithful who vote at primaries do. If Romney, that strange combination of conservative and New Englander, can convince the Bible Belt Republicans to support him he could be the one. While most people will deny that the Mormon factor is relevant, what people do once they are in the voting booth is very private...and often in distinct opposition to their public pronouncements. Romney may be the best face to present in the general election. The next few weeks will tell.

And what of the Hero of 9/11. Well, the War on Terror is less of a factor now that Iraq seems to have calmed down. Republicans are often portrayed as holier-than-thou judgmental hypocrites. Lord knows, we all have known someone who fit that stereotype. But they truly don't like their standard bearer to have the same kind of personal foibles that the Democrats seem to be more tolerant of. They prefer them to have different foibles! The damage done to Rudy with the revelations regarding the public money used to enable his trysts with his then mistress is significant. If anyone is liable to be badly damaged for the coming weeks it's Rudy. He could end up being one of the first casualties of the process...this cycle's Howard Dean.

That leaves one. A former actor, westerner, conservative, who is comfortable on TV, quick with a witty comeback...no...not Reagan. Of course, I mean Fred Thompson. Westerner? You must forgive me, as a teacher, I see Tennessee as the west. I think of the state of Andrew Jackson as part south, part west. There is an independence and easygoing frankness that Tennesseans cultivate. Thompson's main rap so far has been his "tortoise vs. hare" approach to modern campaigning. He hasn't seemed to want it as bad as the others.

On the other hand, Americans as somewhat suspicious of candidates who seem to want it TOO bad. We like to see them as feeling chosen or, better yet, called to service. Is Fred really wanting this? The man has a young family and his Law and Order residuals should certainly keep the wolf away from the door financially. Is he willing to do what is necessary to win? And then govern? If he is, he could surprise. Look at the description I used at the beginning of the previous paragraph. Sound familiar?

He perhaps had his "Nashua moment" in last week's Iowa Debate. He refused to get into "hand-raising" when asked whether he believed in man-made global warming. Stating that it deserved a full answer, he asked for the 60 seconds they were being given for answers. When denied that opportunity, he declined to participate in a hand-raising vote on the issue. To those who remember Ronald Reagan's 1980 primary run, it brought back memories of his "I paid for this microphone" moment. At the time, the country was going through an international humiliation brought about by the Iranian takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran. They were looking for a take-charge guy who would run the USA like the superpower it was. And Reagan was elected in a landslide on that basis of that perception.

As I once said, perception is reality in politics. How will Republican primary voters see Fred Thompson? Lazy, as he has been portrayed in the media, or Reaganesque? The next few weeks should be fascinating.

I say it here, it comes out there...

One of my favorite films about modern media is the wonderful James L. Brooks film Broadcast News. If you haven't seen it, it's worth the rental.(With the usual caveat that it has the modern cinema requirement of at least one childish nude scene and a sprinkling of salty language) Brooks' films contain many wonderful quotable lines and this entry is no exception.

At one point, one of the film's major protagonists, Aaron Altman (played by Albert Brooks...no relation) is feeding empty-suit-but-good-looking-anchor Tom Grunick (William Hurt in a wonderfully underplayed performance) information of a technical nature during a live report on an international incident. Grunick is not the brightest bulb in the TV news world but he handles the import of information through his earplug with seamless efficiency. Brooks sees his words reflected on his TV screen seconds after he phones it in. He remarks, with stunned admiration, "I say it here, it comes out there."

I felt this kind of pride of ownership when reading this morning's commentary from Newsweek's doyenne of DC politics, Eleanor Clift. She was referring to the stratagem I highlighted yesterday of repeating the issue of Obama's youthful indiscretion of drug usage while vowing not to talk about it. She was relaying the observations of a longtime Democratic strategist who also caught the ham-handed attempt to lay a smack-down on Obama:

In what looked like one of the oldest campaign tricks in the book, Hillary pollster Mark Penn managed to repeat the charge even as he disavowed its place in the campaign. "It's dangerous for her," says the Democratic strategist. "She has high negatives. She cuts someone else up; she cuts herself down."

Clift is no tool of the right-wing media. Conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh has jokingly referred to her in the past as "Eleanor Rodham Clift." Is Clift's column a sign that the DC news illuminati are deserting Team Clinton?

Senator Clinton continued to suggest that Obama wasn't a familiar enough quantity in the party, hinting that the man Joe Biden infamously referred to as "clean" perhaps had some dirt under his fingernails. Her husband took the opportunity on the PBS' Charlie Rose show to suggest that voting for Obama was "rolling the dice." This is not how you behave when you are simply on the way to your coronation.

The problem the Democrats have is one they have often faced in the past. The bench is depleted. The experienced candidates who would have seen strong support in the past (Biden, Richardson, Dodd, etc) are mired in single-digit poll numbers. The pundits are just now realizing that we live in a celebrity world. The omnimunificent Oprah didn't tour for them; she toured for Obama. And thousands turned out...but will they turnout for a caucus or primary?

Is this a window of opportunity for John Edwards? What if Hillary gets THIRD in Iowa? That seems very unlikely since caucus states require strong long-time ground game organization. Edwards does have that going for him and his populist message plays well with Iowa Democrats. But Obama is from next door. That may be more important.

It is well to remember that John Kerry was barely showing into double-digits in 2004 until Senator Ted Kennedy brought in his people to help the junior senator from his state in the last few weeks leading up the the Hawkeye Cauci. That organization's ability to overwhelm the volunteer minions of the "people's candidate", Howard Dean astonished many of the punditry. While it didn't end the competition, Kerry did go on to take New Hampshire, his natural turf, and he never looked back on his way to the party's nomination.

If organization is the key, then Hillary could recover in New Hampshire. That is the state that launched her husband's run for the White House with a strong second place finish to New Englander Paul Tsongas; all in the middle of the Gennifer Flowers hubbub and the leaked draft letter fracas. In Hillary's case, present polls are threatening a possible four state loss in a row beginning to the primary season.

It's a long cry from "Mrs. Inevitability." Why is that aura of invulnerability so important? In politics, perception is everything...especially when you count on money from donors to keep flowing. When the money slows down, so do ad buys, hiring, travel schedules, and it all contributes to the perception, played by the hilt to a 24-hour media, that your campaign is imploding.

And that, if it began to play out on the small screen, would be enough to turn the Hillary express into a Greek tragedy for all to see. Again, all of this is simply pre-game speculation when there hasn't been a single vote counted yet but the flop sweat, again so wonderfully portrayed by Brook's Aaron Altman in Broadcast News, is beginning to emanate from the Clinton campaign.

Whats that Greek word...hubris?

How to slime an opponent while apologizing for sliming them

Wow, the Clintons are good. No, I mean it, really good. A day after apologizing for bringing up Obama's admitted drug use, and two days after raising it in an interview, the Clinton campaign has used the "C" word(cocaine) in continuing the issue while appearing to take it off the table.

While having the New Hampshire primary co-chair resign over the interview which brought up the issue, the national campaign manager cited a specific drug in vowing not to bring up drug use. This brought up memories to the Ol' Coach of the famous Governor Thompson denial in the Illinois governor's re-election campaign versus Adlai Stevenson III. It was an amazing piece of work.

Frankly, Big Jim Thompson seemingly wasn't in danger of losing his bid for re-election, but the name of Adlai Stevenson has special meaning in Illinois and he was taking no chances that the son of the famous two-time presidential candidate could unseat him. Stevenson had stated in a press conference that Thompson was treating him as if he were a wimp. In denying that he had called Stevenson a "wimp", Thompson used the phrase "wimp" several times in the press conference while vowing to personally eschew the moniker when referring to his opponent. It became such a popular sound bite that the label stuck to Stevenson. Buttons were issued (I have one) saying, "Don't be a wimp, vote Republican", and Thompson won in a squeaker. How different might things have been had Stevenson not handed Thompson that stick to beat him with?

By vowing not to use the term, Thompson had put the label in the thought of every member of the electorate. By appearing to reject negative campaigning, he had made the negative concept a permanent image of his opponent. But this time it likely will backfire on Hillary. Her negatives are huge for a candidate aspiring to national office. The vast majority of the public already have an image of the former First Lady firmly ensconced in their minds and even the craven attempt at a softer image (having daughter Chelsea and her mother campaigning!) in Iowa for her is unlikely to succeed. If anything, the attempt to recast her public image is so transparent as it is likely to backfire on her.

Americans like to have a kind image of their presidents. There is no question that the nation's voters have strongly divergent images of the present occupant of the Oval Office, but those that support him believe that they have several reasons to like him personally. Even Hillary's most ardent supporters find her problematic...but they see her as their best chance for a Democrat to retake the White House...and they still retain strong personal love and affection for her husband, the 42nd president of the United States.

With the war in Iraq becoming less of a campaign issue in 2008 and the economy and domestic issues retaking the center stage as is true for most US elections, the battlefield should remain friendly ground for the Democrats. But if Hillary ends up NOT being their choice for a candidate, will October 2008 still look as hopeful to the party of Jefferson and Jackson if a first-term Senator? Will they do better with a former Vice-Presidential candidate who had problems getting re-elected senator in his home state?

In the end, it may come down to how likable the Republican candidate is. More on how that donnybrook is shaping up in the next few days. In a gradual upturn to their benefit, President Bush has been quietly winning battles and taking some big negatives issues for the pachyderm party off of the hot plate.

Meanwhile, keep your eyes focused on former President Clinton's efforts to save his wife's flagging candidacy. While there is plenty of time for team Clinton to turn things around, time is getting short...and people's mental images of each candidate are getting set in stone as the time for primary voting draws near.

Is there a Toshiba tiger in the tank?

Looks like Toshiba has made a battery breakthrough. If this is being properly interpreted, it could make filling up your electric car as short as filling up for gasoline.

Any of you out there who might have some expertise in these matters are invited to comment on this report....

The Culture of scandal

Americans have become accustomed to scandal in all areas of society, not just politics. Today we will see this in clear focus. It will be interesting to see if race becomes an issue in the wake of the investigations of both Democratic congressman William Jefferson (D-LA) in recent weeks and news of the raid on Reverend Al Sharpton just yesterday.

Most disturbing to people of all political affiliations is the pending release of the Mitchell Investigation. Some names are already being leaked to the press, and they include future Hall of Fame shoe-ins. Former Senator and Majority Leader George Mitchell has been looking into the connections between dozens of top baseball players and a pharmaceutical company tied to the use of performance-enhancing drugs. Shortly after the 2pm EST press conference by Senator Mitchell, Baseball Commissioner and owner (how the heck did we let that happen) Bud Selig will have his own press conference. This is no simple "Black Sox" scandal...no semi-tawdry Pete Rose betting sideshow...this was common practice, evidently, among several players and clubhouses.

Most Americans call it cheating...and would expect a loss of awards...and records...as a penalty to the guilty. The public will be interested to see how Major League Baseball sees it...

Will there be serious penalties? Or more slaps on the wrist as evidenced by the NFL's limp response to the New England Patriot's scandal that some with a vested interest think should diminish the chances of the football team's run for a perfect regular season record.

Was PT Barnum right? Stay tuned...I expect to edit this post later today to include more links.

Edit: Mitchell's report and list is out...and the famous and obscure are there. Rumors continue that more were left off for want of confirmation. What will Selig do?

Morning Update

Some days I wonder if someone is reading my computer keyboard...this morning's Manchester NH Union Leader, the states largest selling newspaper, has a headline that sounds like yesterday's blog post.

Now the Clintons, already in trouble in Iowa, find that they can no longer stay above the fray. They expected trouble from the Republicans, but didn't expect that the Democrat stalking horses in the primary would force them to go negative so early. When you are the "inevitable" candidate, you can't lose any primaries, especially early on. Clinton, already under the burden of being a nationally well-known candidate with large personal negative ratings, even with liberal women, now has to get down into the mudslinging. I think her husband used to refer to this dismissively as the "politics of personal destruction." This morning's Drudge Report is headlining reports that Obama's past drug use will become part of the whisper campaign against the Illinois senator. One wonders if the whispers about her own husband's past drug questions including cocaine usage will be used by the Obama or Edwards campaign.

Already, it's pretty clear that the problems the two challengers are giving the heir apparent have disqualified both from being on the ticket should Mrs. Clinton secure the nomination. Bill Richardson has quietly put himself in good position for that, spending what little time he has on the stage criticizing the other two and leaving his old boss' spouse unharmed. Plus, being a member of a demographic the Democrat party dearly needs to keep in it's camp (Hispanics) he would be a solid balance to the Clinton ticket for the general election.

But Hillary has to win the nomination first...and the critical element of passion and momentum remains in the Obama campaign. Will he peak too early? Will Hillary hit too hard? Is the voting public paying attention? There is the last debate before the January 3rd Iowa caucus today at 2 pm EST.

Man, I love US politics...get out the popcorn!

Trouble in Clinton-land?

This morning finds more trouble on Senator Clinton's plate. Yesterday, Stuart Taylor, Jr., National Journal's political writer listed the baggage that Mrs. Clinton brings to the table here.

Then the Clintons wake up and see trouble in her firewall in New Hampshire and reports of internecine warfare amongst her staff. This is not the sign of inevitability that the Clinton campaign had wanted to put forward as the public face of their efforts.

What does this all mean? So far, not a lot until votes begin to be counted. Obama's big Oprah moment has come and gone, but early efforts like Iowa and New Hampshire are usually won with organization, not polling data...otherwise, we would debating President Howard Dean's chances for a second term.

Going unnoticed has been the terrible management of Pelosi and Reid's Democratic congressional majorities and the continuing control of their agenda by the far-left of the Democratic party. It has led to a standstill of legislation in Congress and yet another looming successful sustaining of a veto by President Bush. Over the last few weeks, the ratings of the President have slowly climbed while the Democratic congress continues to sink.

The coming "Democratic tsunami" in 2008 is not looking so "inevitable" after all.

More later...

Coach

The State of the Presidential Race

Well, it's that time again. The Iowa caucus is soon upon us and people will have something to complain about, other than the BCS system for NCAA football's national championship. I am of course referring to the complaint every four years that we have lame candidates to choose from for the presidential election.

This year is more open than in the past. Hillary seems to have stumbled a bit on the way to her easy coronation, and the Republican's are in full chaos as each one accuses the other of being more liberal than the Democrats. It's like a horrible catfight to earn the right to live in the White House. How did it come down to this? I will go into more details in a future blog post, but for now it's important that you realize that these early primaries are about the two "m"s: money and momentum.

Right now, Hillary has much of the money in the Democrat primary, but Obama has much of the momentum. As many who have talked to me in the past know, I have always felt that Obama doesn't have much of a chance because the Clintons have retained control of almost all of the party machinery since Bill left the White House in January of 2001. That was by plan since the concept of Hillary taking over after Bill was the reason she ran for Senator from New York to begin with. (Notice how she didn't run for senator from their home state of Arkansas...she wanted to broaden her regional appeal for a national office)

But she has shown that she isn't the retail politician that Bill is and has stumbled whenever she has been forced out of the protective bubble that the media has let her get away with. While Obama has his problems as a national candidate(his ultra-liberal ideology would lead to a national spanking of McGovernesque proportions should he win the nomination) people are hungry for a change.

That is what has had the Democrats looking so ripe for retaking the White House; a national desire for change. Americans like to do that...when one party has control of things for a while, Americans like to hand it over to the other guys to see how they do. So far, the Democrats in Congress have made a dog's breakfast of their control since taking it over in November of 2006, but the Republicans have been in search of someone with a spine to challenge the Democrat leadership and find that their spine must be located wherever Saddam Hussein's WMD's are.

Meanwhile, the party of the elephant don't seem to be doing much better. Right now, polls show former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee leading the race for the Iowa caucus. Seriously? They think people will be thrilled to see someone named Huckabee up on the chryon for press conferences day after day? It seems the main requirement for the vote in the Republican party is to be able to name the top 10 finishers in the NASCAR season along with proof of baptism and two boxtops from Captain Crunch cereal.

The media thought Saint Rudy of 9/11 was a shoe-in but they didn't realize that Republicans don't just dislike Democrats who are serial cheaters, but don't care for Republicans who "do thou likewise." Mitt Romney tried to get traction by quoting John Adams in linking religion and the founding of this country but forgot that the religion-hating media in this country don't like to have their views challenged by citing insignificant documents like the Constitution.

What about Fred Thompson? Wasn't Mr. Law and Order ready for primetime? Fred never quite hit the campaign trail like so many of his followers thought he would. Seems Fred decided that he could say, "Let me know when the real campaigning starts...meanwhile, I'll be in my trailer." What a waste of a great TV voiceover.

Where does that leave us? It leaves most people deciding to tune it all out and wait for the fall programming (if the writers ever settle their strike) and spending October and November doing what we do every four years...complaining about our choices.

What will I do? Not much I can do...this will probably be decided long before Missouri has it's primary on February 5th since many of the small fry will be out of money by then. But we will keep talking about this race on this blog.

Stay tuned...

Welcome one and all

Hi! Welcome to The Deep End. If you want to know more about me and my background, go to the info in the corner of the page and click on the "about me" part of the page. Please don't read anything into the fact that this blog was started on Pearl Harbor Day!

Today is little more than an introductory post to get things started. There will be lots of interesting things to talk about on this blog and I look forward to hearing from people around to the world who are interested in more light, and less heat...although I probably get heated myself from time to time.

I also expect to get some help from more technically advanced people in my family who can jazz up this site a little. Meanwhile, join in and bookmark this site.

More later,

"Coach"