Real life has it's demands

In case anyone hasn't noticed, it's been a few days since I have posted. I have been grading and now have to make a quick trip out of town. Should be back to blogging on Monday.

Thanks to those who have been reading...see you Monday!

Coach

Toast or phoenix?

That's the question people are asking now...is Hillary toast, or liable to rise like a phoenix from the ashes. President Bush's legacy...millstone to the Republicans or likely to be reassessed more positively by historians. John McCain, past his prime or right for the time? Barack Obama, too green or just right for today's scene?

It's darn hard to drive down the road while keeping your eyes focused on the rear-view mirror. If the last few months have proven anything, it's that a few months is plenty of time for things to change drastically; there's that word "change" again.

Let's look just 5 months ago...Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in for the nomination...Iraq was considered a hopeless disaster by BOTH party's leadership. Bush was hated by anyone with black skin. John McCain was too old and his campaign in too much disarray to have any chance at the Republican nomination. How could anyone vote for a guy named "Huckabee"? You might as well call yourself "Gomer Pyle." No one could get the Republican nomination without the endorsement of right-wing talk radio. The mainstream civil rights leadership was behind Hillary Clinton because Obama was too inexperienced. Besides, the white electorate wouldn't vote for a black person. Young people rarely vote or care about politics. Latinos would never vote for a black candidate. The New York Times would never print gossip about a presidential candidate. All of these have gone the way of "I'll respect you in the morning", "the check is in the mail", and my favorite, "I'm from the government, I'm here to help."

Now...where are we? Hillary is being called "done for" by so many media outlets that those who say she ISN'T done for are the exception. Iraq is even being acknowledged as having turned the corner those who said just the opposite a year ago and has almost disappeared from the election debate as Petraeus is recommending troop drawdowns. Bush is being hailed by rock stars and African NGOs as the president who has done the most for that beleaguered continent in recent history. McCain is the going to be the Republican nominee. Only Huckabee is left, after Mr. Olympia and his $46 million have left the scene. Limbaugh, Hannity, Coulter et. al. can only fume about the rise of McCain. The civil rights leadership and the Super Delegates are trying to sneak out of the Clinton camp undetected. White voters are flocking to Obama led by young voters. Even Latinos may give him their vote over Hillary in Texas. And the Times has slimed McCain the day after he declared himself to be the nominee. McCain's longstanding friendship with the press has earned him defenders from amongst the most unlikely media corners.

What should we take from all this?

That any polls prior to November of 2008 are garbage. Does this mean we will stop setting ourselves up for these kinds of misjudgments with future predictions?

Heck no! What will bloggers like me do? ;)

By the way...one of the best at political analysis is Michael Barone. His assessment of the general election at this point in time can be seen here.

Coach

The Grey Lady goes after the press' favorite maverick

Many pundits had predicted that once John McCain became the nominee for the Republican party that the chummy relationship between the "maverick" Republican senator and the press would end. How prophetic those words were. Few were surprised when the day after McCain proclaimed himself the nominee apparent that the New York Times unloaded a long rumored story regarding John McCain and a female lobbyist.

While the McCain campaign is trying to respond to the allegations, the Times has suspiciously chosen to go silent in response to the article. In fact, the author of the article, Jim Rutenberg, has gone so far as to tell one of McCain's advisors, in an e-mail, that NO ONE from the Times is likely to agree to be interviewed.

It's disgusting to this long-time observer of the political and news scene to see such an obvious case of inserting one's self into the political fray at the most opportune time.

I wonder how the disciple of "hope and coming together" will react to this sliming of his opponent...or will he remain in silent assent...because he could be next...

Politicians had better learn...it's not about ideology...it's about the media being in control of events. As Bill Clinton once said, "Never pick a fight with people who buy ink by the barrel."

Bullseye!

On a night where the Americas were treated to a lovely copper-colored lunar eclipse, the US military has once again demonstrated the awesome technology at their disposal for the protection of the free world.

A military satellite that had been placed in a faulty orbit by a launch rocket malfunction was due to come down with a full tank of poisonous hydrazine fuel has been successfully intecepted by a missile launched from the USS Lake Erie. Normally, the fuel in one of these surveillance satellites would be largely used up. But since this satellite never achieved a proper orbit, most of the 1000 pounds of fuel was still on board. The Pentagon was concerned that the US craft could come down over an inhabited area and spill it's toxic vapors in a massive unintentional WMD attack. This is not exactly the way to build goodwill overseas.

The US has been building a force to shoot down incoming missiles for years. With rogue nations like Iran and North Korea building atomic weapons, and the missiles systems to deliver them, it seemed prudent for several presidents to continue US efforts to develop a capacity that was known as "Star Wars missile defense" during the Reagan years. President Bush was presented with a way to not only take down a threat of our own making, but to see how well the system works...and whether we should continue to develop it more fully.

Understandably, Russia and China have been most vocal in protesting our development and demonstration of this system. Americans have seen the Russian and Chinese peoples as new friends and customers in the age of free trade, forgetting that these two governments continue to have missiles targeted at our cities and missile silos.

Is it possible that this will become a campaign issue in this election, in the context of the bigger picture of "aren't we just big bullies? No wonder nobody around the world likes us" providing an opportunity to draw distinctions between the two logical candidates this fall: McCain and Obama.

The important work will be for the mainstream media to be honest in its information provided to the electorate to consider in this important election. We can walk through dozens of scanners to prevent bombers from getting on our airplanes, but only the US military can stop an incoming missile from the next generation of Sungs, Husseins, and Achmadinejads.

Congratulations, US Navy...

Edit: You can watch a briefing and a low quality version of the event here.

And Wisconsin makes nine.

Obama hit Hillary hard in a state with the kind of blue-collar Democratic constituency that Hillary will need to win convincingly in order to take the important states of Ohio and Texas.

But the real news was that for the first time both Obama and McCain acted like Mrs. Clinton was done for and took very direct shots at each other.

More and more, we should expect the age difference and the policy differences between McCain and Obama to become the subject of future "victory" speeches at these primary events.

It may also signal the change of coverage by the media in that they are beginning to notice the issue differences between the two and the Obamamania begins to look more like a Britney Spears event than a political rally. This will mean more scrutiny of the spouses as well.

Keep an eye on the issues between the two...now we will begin to see past the previous templates of "I was a POW and the media loves me" or "Hope, change, and I give great speeches." Some media types are beginning to see Obama in a different light already.

The fall campaign is getting it's opening shots tonight...

Enter the ladies...and it's not who you think...

You would think that when we talk about the ladies in politics that we would be referring to Senator Hillary Clinton. Nope. It's the possible nominees for each party's spouses that is my subject today.

Michelle Obama got things rolling with a comment at a rally in Madison Wisconsin Sunday night.

For the first time in my adult lifetime, I'm proud of my country. And not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change. And I have been desperate to see our country moving in that direction. And just not feeling so alone in my frustration and disappointment I've seen people who are hungry to be unified around some basic, common issues and it's made me proud.

Now, to many voters, their reaction will be "what's the big deal?" I suppose to others, who know the Obama's situation, it's likely to be "Harvard educated, large law firm, millionaires, Senator, author" and she's just now proud of her country in her adult lifetime? It seems like she is running for the Bill and Hillary Clinton "It's all about us" award.

Cindy McCain just responded a few hours ago by saying, "I have always been proud of my country." She didn't elaborate, but since many of the journalists following the McCain campaign can read and speak English, they knew what she was referring to.

Will this cost the Obama juggernaut any momentum? Probably not. The majority of Obama supporters, angry at 7 years of George Bush, frustrated over Iraq, and exasperated by the Clintons ("Dammit, they still don't go!") are likely to agree with Michelle's sentiments. But so far the Obama phenomenon has kept ahead of the Clintons because of their "happy words" and talk of hope and uplifting subject matter. It may be that Michelle will have to be a little more judicious with her words in future months. Barack is still enough of a blank slate that he doesn't have a bottomless well of good-feelings to draw on. People are still wondering if he is as good as he seems at first glance.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin has a primary today and Hawaii has a caucus. Obama should win easily in the caucus in one of his original home states. He usually excels at caucuses anyway. Wisconsin will be watched carefully by the chattering class. Before the Obama string of victories, most observers would have picked Hillary to win this state. With it's blue-collar constituencies, Wisconsin should be a good place for Hillary to stop Obama's winning streak, but momentum and an energized college student voting bloc should be enough to give the Illinois senator this state. If she pulls off a surprise win, then it will really start to get ugly as we ramp up to Texas and Ohio.

If Obama wins big, then pressure will emanate from the political Illuminati that run the Democratic National Committee to get Super Delegates to commit for Obama and prevent Denver from becoming Chicago 1968.

It should be an interesting evening.

Coach

A trickle becoming a torrent

Early on in her campaign, Hillary Clinton enjoyed the support of the black congressional establishment for her White House bid. Now, it appears the effects of the massive black turnout for Barack Obama in the primaries is causing black congressmen to switch their committment as Super Delegates from Hillary to Obama. John Lewis, who marched with Dr. King, announced yesterday that he is wavering and may change his endorsement.

If someone as prominent in the civil rights leadership as Lewis switches, he will give "cover" to dozens of other African-American supporters of Hillary to follow suit. The leaks in the Clinton dike could become a torrent over the next few weeks, regardless of how she does in the critical battlegrounds of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

I would imagine Bill is burning up the phone lines trying to persuade Hillary's black supporters to await the March primaries before making any "rash" moves, when he's not desperately raising money for her flagging bid.

On the Republican side, McCain picked up Mitt Romney's formal endorsement and, more importantly, the possibility of the couple hundred delegates who are pledged to support the former Massachusetts governor. Each state's primary or caucus has it's own rules, so some of the delegates may not be free to cast their ballots for McCain on the first vote at the St. Paul convention, but it adds to the sense of inevitability of McCain's bid for the nomination.

What did Huckabee think of all this? He stated that it was nothing more than another party vote of "me too" when he represents the part of conservatism that says "not me too."

While Huckabee runs the political version of the Flat Earth Society, McCain continues to raise money for the general election and hopes that the Democrats will build ill will amongst the Hillary and Obama camps so that the faithful of the losing side will consider moving to his camp for the fall election.

This Tuesday, Hawaii and Wisconsin will choose delegates (HI is a caucus, WI a primary) and while Obama should easily win in his boyhood home of Hawaii, Hillary badly needs no worse than a close defeat in the land of cheese, the Green Bay Packers, and Battling Bob Lafollette. Right about now, her campaign may need a Brett Favre "hail Mary" touchdown pass...

The last straw...

That dang Global Warming has struck again. It seems to have killed the Loch Ness Monster, according to a longtime Nessie hunter.

As an internet wag put it...next you know, Global Warming will do in Bigfoot and Elvis...but we know it won't hurt UFOs since they are interplanetary...

Time is not on her side...

The big Obama victory in the Chesapeake Primaries Tuesday night were massive in the margin of victory and in their import. Virginia is one state that Hillary should have had a good chance at taking, but it seems like the Democrat operatives in the gov't areas across the Potomac seem to be tossing Team Clinton aside for the Obama message of "hope and change."

Is Hillary irretrievably behind? Tomorrow's New York Times is saying, "Perhaps." It remains to be seen. She is relying on her "base" of Latinos and blue-collar Democrats in the last few large population states: Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

So far, some polls are hopeful for her, but it's not altogether clear whether she can turn things around even if she runs the traditional Democratic table with these big population states. Obama thinks he will continue to chip away by taking his media-driven momentum in the smaller caucus and primary states, putting his campaign into a four-corners offense that Hillary can't seem to compete with. It's a unique phenomenon in American politics; a young senator with little time on the national stage defeating a well-oiled machine.

A clear warning that winds had changed was a highly critical article by longtime AP reporter Ron Fournier (Fournier has been given credit for urging Al Gore to challenge the Florida results in many authoritative books on the 2000 election crisis) If this media friend of the Clintons has jumped ship, perhaps the winds of change are irrevocably blowing Obama's way.

There isn't much to talk about in the Republican side right now except for how long before Huckabee runs out of money, and when does McCain announce his Veep choice. McCain will simply "win, place, or show" his way to the nomination by accumulating delegates throughout the spring and should have it wrapped up by Pennsylvania's primary on April 22nd.

What will the Clintons be willing to do in order to win? Will they listen to the Democrat brain trust? Will any of the Super Delegates give in to pressure from them?

Once again, it's time to get out the popcorn...

The plot thickens...

Well, the Republican race has pretty much settled in. Even Fred Thompson has endorsed John McCain, so this only leaves Mike Huckabee either in denial or running for Veep. Only he knows for sure. But you can already see the media changing from "we love McCain the maverick" to "the Democrats are ready to open up on the Republican." Interesting. Huckabee has won Kansas' caucus easily and as I write this, may win Washington state and Louisiana. It's not going to be pretty.

Meanwhile, it's ugly for the Clintons as well. Obama has taken the Nebraska and Washington caucuses easily and seems on his way to winning the Louisiana primary at press time.

Will he be able to keep it together all the way to November? Has presidential politics in America become a kind of "American Idol" affair?

What a year...

So many things...so little time...

On the day Romney pulled out and essentially handed McCain the Republican nomination, a lightning bolt struck the Democratic race: the Clintons are low on money.

If there has been one thing Team Clinton has always excelled at, it's raising money from their supporters...but many of those supporters are now tired of the Clintons and the stress of their "war room" politicking and are now giving money to Obama. The Illinois senator garnered @$30 million last month and is well on his way to repeating that in February. The Clinton campaign reports less than half that for January and Hillary admitted last night that she lent her campaign $5 million two weeks ago.

Couching that as a "putting her money where her mouth is" type of proclamation, it has rightfully raised the question of where the Clintons are getting their money. While the media is aware of the Clinton family book deals and speaking engagements, many are asking about the Clinton business dealing that some think are ways to work around the campaign finance laws.

After surviving the cattle futures questions of the 80s and the Whitewater questions of the 90s, you would think the Clintons would be more circumspect in their financing.

Meanwhile, the bruising Democratic primary fight continues this weekend with a primary in Louisiana and caucuses (Obama has won 7 out of 8) in Washington state and Nebraska.

Get out the popcorn...

Coach

Will Denver become Chicago 1968?

So many of the elements are there...the upstart young freshman senator with the backing of the Kennedy family...the opposition candidate with ties to a Democratic presidency...possible challenges over seating of delegations...close vote counts, passionate feelings, the backdrop of an unpopular war.

Hopefully, there is where the parallels will stop. We don't need a redux of 1968 replete with assassinations, riots, protests, etc. But there is certainly the concern of acrimony over tactics, race, gender, distrust of "backroom dealing" and the loser may yell "we wuz robbed!"

After all the sturm und drang leading up to Super Tuesday, there is no clear favorite among the Democrats. Obama won more states, but Hillary won three of the four most populous states. Both had overwhelming majorities of two major Democratic demographic groups: Hillary won massively with Latinos, Obama with blacks. Obama bit hard into Hillary's constituency of women, and Hillary won much of the male labor union vote; Bill remains a strong asset to her campaign and her appeal.

So where does that leave us? With a campaign that will probably abound with acrimonious fights over the "lost" delegations of Michigan and Florida, for one. This will get a lot of airplay over the next few months, so get used to it. Each week will have the "next critical primary/caucus".

What about the elephants? Well, it wasn't a great night for McCain, but it was good enough. He could "place" and "show" for most of the rest of the primary season and he will still amass enough delegates to become the nominee. With most of the rest of the delegates being awarded in each state on a proportional basis, it is hard to come up with a scenario where McCain does not win the GOP nod. Romney seems to have suffered from a southern trend that just can't quite vote for a Mormon, and Huckabee became the beneficiary of that three way split in the vote. However, Huckabee seems to have little mass appeal outside of the Bible Belt. Will he expect a VP tap from McCain as a reward?

Romney has a big decision to make. He has spent upwards of $50 million of his personal fortune so far. Losing California, when some late polls had suggested it was in reach, was a huge blow to his desire to be seen as the last refuge for conservatives who oppose McCain. Wisdom might suggest that now is the time to get out, endorse McCain, and prepare for a second run in '12 or '16. Huckabee has seen most of the states where he has a chance to win; if he has his eye on a spot in a McCain administration, he might find his bargaining position is at it's highest now. The party will put pressure on those two to get out as soon as possible.

It will be very difficult for the Republicans to hold the White House this November. The Democrats are fired up like we haven't seen since 1992...hmm....who ran then? Even in "red" states, most primaries saw more Democrats vote in their primaries than Republicans. In an election, the enthusiasm of your followers for the candidate is key to success. McCain will need all the time he can spare between now and November to try to repair the damage done to his relationship with the conservative wing of his party. Many doubt it can be done, but all pundits know that he can't possibly win without them.

The consensus opinion is that the best thing the Republicans would have going for them this fall is to have McCain at the top of the ticket and Hillary opposing him. They calculate that even the most rabid right-winger, who considers McCain to be "liberal", will grudgingly cast a vote for him this fall in order to prevent a return to power by the Clintons.

I wouldn't bet on that.

Meanwhile, some old enemies are preparing to remind us that they may end up being a factor to consider when electing a commander-in-chief...

Coach

All over but the shouting?

The Democrats had their final debate prior to Super Tuesday on Thursday night, and the pundits will start tracking with their Blackberries to determine what the probable delegate counts will be on the morning of February 6th. To a great extent, last night's debate was an attempt by the two survivors to show how they can play like adults and rise above the rancor shown the night before at the Republican debate. They succeeded.

Hillary came away with the sound bite I am sure we will hear from now until November 5: "It did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush." It was no surprise to see a huge roar of approval from the Hollywood audience that is enthusiastic for either one of the candidates to replace the current occupant of the White House. Which will be the nominee?

All signs point to a tightening race in a total of votes, but as in the general election, the point is to win states and their caches of delegates. While the recent endorsements of Obama are likely to help, especially in fundraising for the Illinois senator, Hillary is still the presumptive nominee. Look for Bill to be much quieter these days and rather than holding rallies, spend more of his time doing what he does best: raising money.

It will be interesting to see the strategy and results of the time between when it dawns on people that the nominating process is all but over (I suggest that will happen in about 10 days) and the summer conventions. The Clintons must have a huge cache of things to unload on a man like John McCain who has a public record in the Senate going back decades. Will that turn things around from polls that show either Democrat with a 6-8 point deficit to the former Navy pilot?

There hasn't been a lot of changes in the political ether that would suggest we have had any significant realignment of the Electoral College landscape in the USA. There are some more subtle changes in each party, and the effect that would have on "purple" states is unclear. It leads us to some obvious questions:

Should Hillary and McCain be the nominees this fall what happens in the closer states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire?

Do rank and file union members (Reagan Democrats) choose the more moderate McCain over Hillary because of her gender...and her feminist attitudes and personality?

Does the hardcore conservative base, who have to flip a coin to see if they hate McCain more or Hillary more, stay home? They were a large part of George W. Bush's margin in some close midwestern states and a big part of his financial and worker base for the Get Out The Vote effort. Will their Hillary Derangement Syndrome force them to hold their noses and vote for McCain?

Will the diversity crowd, who the Clintons hit with a political 2X4 in South Carolina, forgive Hillary and come home...or choose a Republican who seems almost as much at odds with conservative Republicans as they are?

Does the ton of dirt and skeletons, which the media will dredge up at the behest of the Clintons, change the public image of McCain as an honorable war hero who is a maverick within his own party?

Does his age become a factor?

Does her husband become a factor?

Will either one surprise us with their VP pick? McCain would seem to need a conservative to offer an olive branch to his base. Hillary might want a Bill Richardson to cement the Latinos as her new base since she may have damaged herself with the African-American community.

Finally, the possible surprise that no one seems to think of...will Al Qaida or the situation in Iraq steal the show? Will we be in recession by November, or will we be grateful we dodged a bullet?(Things look better on that front with companies looking to grab opportunities as Microsoft is doing today)

Much to ponder in the months ahead...

Coach