A marathon, not a sprint

It's been a long weekend for political junkies like me. Lots to talk about. Let's get started.

This time, we shall start with the Republicans. Many are very upset with John McCain's latest speech, sounding like he is distancing himself from President Bush. No one should be surprised, once he is focused on a Democrat opponent a McCain presidency will be portrayed as the Bush 3rd term. McCain will get increasingly harsh press treatment over the next several months as the mainstream media fears that he could actually win. Look for them to focus on the Keating 5 investigation of the early 1990s, Cindy McCain's bout with prescription drug addiction and her stealing of some of those drugs from her own medical charity. And of course there is McCain's divorce of his disabled wife after his return from a North Vietnamese prison. Finally, there will be the out of context quote that "we could be in Iraq for another 100 years", knowing full well that he meant bases. After all, we still have bases in Japan and Germany...and WWII has been over for over 60 years now.

Meanwhile, two Democrat candidates continue to poke and push at each other. Hillary has filed to allow the delegates from Florida and Michigan to be seated. She's beginning to hurt from money problems again and insists on staying in it through the Denver convention. Either she is in denial, bent on the destruction of her party, incapable of doing the math...or she knows there are yet other shoes to be dropped on Obama. Will her people be doing the dropping? Obama is trying to remain magnanimous and says she has the right to stay in. Or perhaps, he's just realistic. Party insiders are beginning to wonder if perhaps Al Gore can be drafted in Denver. Stay tuned.

Finally, Obama, after his short vacation in the Caribbean, is touring Pennsylvania. Will working-class whites give him the vote? Has the Reverend Wright issue dissolved? It's interesting to see him reach for the center. He gave an interview to Maria Bartaromo of the CNBC financial network and scared investors by suggesting that he would raise capital gains rates. His wife has become a very popular figure on the campaign trail, but how will she play with independents? And Obama himself is suggesting that he will handle foreign affairs...like those two great "Democrat" presidents...Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush. HUH? Not sure how to read that one.

A side note...the passing of Dith Pran reminded us all of the nature of despotic regimes and the reality of genocide in today's world and how only a nation like the US can truly get involved in stopping atrocities like the Cambodian killing fields. An outstanding film was made about Pran's life and escape from Cambodia that is worth a rental but only for those who can handle such an overwhelmingly realistic portrayal of the evil of those who would kill people who had committed the sin of becoming educated and thinking for themselves. This was the strongest example of why worldwide communism had to be defeated. With the shutdown of a website hosting a Dutch film on the horrors of modern Islamic Jihad, the song sounds disturbingly familiar. Is Islamic fundamentalism the new "Evil Empire?"

Coach

In like a lamb...

I remember that old saw about the month of March when I was growing up...if March comes in like a lamb, it goes out like a lion.

I seem to remember the beginning of March being pretty fierce but there is no question that it has gotten more strident as the month has gone on. The chairman of the Democrat Party, Howard Dean, is trying to force a quicker end to the contest by directing that he would like superdelegates to make their commitment to a candidate by July 1 so that the choice is clear before the delegates arrive in Denver. Hillary Clinton promptly replied that she is in this for the long haul.

Meanwhile, some of her colleagues are getting vocal in demanding that she withdraw. This is on top of her embarrassing Bosnia memory lapse. The latest Gallup poll would seem to indicate that this is a huge setback to her chances just when she was beginning to see some momentum in her direction in Pennsylvania.

John McCain has taken the opportunity to give policy speeches on Iraq, foreign policy, and the credit crunch. While the Democrats throw mud and make faux pas ("sniper fire" and "typical white person"), McCain has been successfully playing the "adult" in the contest and the polling data is moving in his favor.

American election history is full of candidates who were far ahead in the spring and defeated handily in November (can you say "Michael Dukakis?"). But it bears repeating that McCain has been here before and neither of the two other candidates have been through the kind of political melee that is the meat grinder we call a US presidential election.

The nominee who comes out of Denver is likely to be well "tenderized" by the loser when he/she faces a senator with 25 years of political experience in the Senate.

Remember that also when the media tells you how much more money the two Democrat candidates have raised. How much will they have spent before they earn the party's nomination?

Coach

silent no longer

I'm sure readers out there have been wondering when I would get back from break and write about the hubbub that has been going on in politics the last week or so. Boy, take off for a few days and the political world goes nuts!

I think I will only make a quick statement about Eliot Spitzer. Why did Bill Clinton survive his lady problem and Spitzer did not? You gotta have supporters in politics to survive a scandal. Spitzer learned that NOBODY liked him. Now he has to face the music at home, and he will have to rethink the decisions he made within the context of the the public trust he had been given and the laws he was supposed to enforce. These are the consequences he will be contemplating for years to come.

Now to the issue at hand. Actually, I came home several days ago. I wrote different drafts on the "Obama/preacher/race" issue at hand. I kept deciding not to post them. Why? Ah...good question, and it goes to the heart of what Obama chose not to acknowledge.

No one would question that today's society in these United States remains more divided along racial lines than it should. Of course, that has always fallen to the default position that once again the white-majority power base is not doing either enough or the right thing to fix this aged wound. My drafts were arguments contrary to that accepted orthodoxy. And I kept backing off from them. Again, why?

Because it was HERESY. A record like that would be a permanent stain on my future. Whether it was a political future (I don't seek one) or professional (who knows what the future could hold), today's Google-searching world makes one realize that every public (and perhaps some private) actions of an individual can be before the billions alive today in a heartbeat. Ask Obama, as we see the X millionth replay of the Youtube videos of the reverend from his Chicago church.

Once branded a heretic today, there is likely no absolution other than abject apologies and public repentance for your sins. But what if you KNOW you are right? It makes no difference, the world of higher education today has made sure that heretics who don't subscribe to the doctrine of white oppression, moral relativism, and American foreign policy evils should be "burned at the stake" to purify our national soul. Notice the silence coming from the McCain campaign on these issues? Boy, is he glad he is out of the country right now. I'll bet he never thought he'd be so glad that Iraq is still in the news; it justifies him focusing on that hot button issue and gives cover to his silence on the racial one.

It's been a re-education watching HBO's landmark series on American Founding Father John Adams. Everytime you think popular culture has no redeeming value, we surprise ourselves with what we are capable of doing with our money, talents, and high ideals. While only two episodes have been released so far, it didn't take more than a few minutes of the first episode to be reminded of how we SHOULD be approaching these kinds of thorny questions.

Adams is a struggling lawyer in 1770 Boston. His cousin is a leader of the radical faction known as The Sons of Liberty. A squad of British troops is on trial for murder in what we today know as the Boston Massacre. Adams is asked to defend the captain against the charge that he ordered the troops to fire on an unruly mob killing several citizens. The politically wise decision would have been to do what every other lawyer had done: take a pass on the case. Adams sees that the issue is whether we are a land ruled by men, or ruled by laws; a morally courageous view that will make his voice more honored by his countrymen in years to come.

The only moral equivalence that Adams offers at trial is that a nation that feels wronged to be taxed without representation cannot also deny certain men the protection of their rights because of political differences: the law must be applied equally to all.

In April of 2007 Barack Obama called for the dismissal of shock jock Don Imus over some stupid racially insensitive remarks made off the cuff on his radio show. Obama said at the time

"I understand MSNBC has suspended Mr. Imus," Obama told ABC News, "but I would also say that there's nobody on my staff who would still be working for me if they made a comment like that about anybody of any ethnic group. And I would hope that NBC ends up having that same attitude."

Well, the Reverend Wright was part of Obama's campaign. He took his family to hear him on Sunday for 20 years. He gave him thousands of dollars. But today, he wants us to understand the fevered conspiracy theories and hate speech of a reverend's words written for effect and sold on DVDs for distribution to the widest audience. (The church's website has been scrubbed in the past few days)He took his children to hear from a man who accused the CIA of creating AIDS to kill blacks, called this country the "US of KKKA", and referred to the black Secretary of State as "Condaskeeza Rice." (definition of "skeeze") If we had substituted black for white, and vice versa, in the reverend's speeches, would we be getting a explanation from Obama or condemnation of the sort that Mr. Imus received? I fear I know the answer to that one.

It has been the great value of our open society to read a vast array of opinion and commentary over the last several days on this issue. It has made me grateful over and over that men like John Adams risked all so that I could do so. I am going to link several, dear reader, for you to think and ponder over.

There is no question that Senator Obama is a talented and well-meaning individual. Undoubtably his speech on Tuesday inspired and brought tears to the eye of many on both sides. But questions remain over whether the civil rights leadership of today's African-American community have taken up the charge of Dr. King and his desire for his children to grow up in a "nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.". That was from Dr. King's "I have a dream" speech. One wag referred to Obama's effort as his "I have an excuse" speech. Ouch. Obama's actions will determine where he truly stands. He can start with some changes on his website. One of the blogs that was once linked on the Obama website was for the NBPP: the New Black Panther Party. Why is it no longer there? A simple explanation would speak volumes. Is he cleansing or laying low?

Anyway, here are the links...I thank you for your time. I would love to hear your comments.

Coach

A fellow historian whose most recent book on the Peloponnesian War and it's lessons for today is Victor Davis Hanson. He is also the author of the courageous Mexifornia. He has had several comments here, here, and here.

A couple examples of those who thought it was the speech of the century and likened it to people like Lincoln are here, here, and here.

Some thoughts on how it might play out politically here, here, and here.

An article with some deeper cultural questions that jumped out at me is here.

Quickly, it is 5 years since the Iraq invasion and both sides have their big guns out. Ralph Peters has been hawk, then dove, then hawk. And as a military man, I appreciate his strategic open-box thinking. His latest thoughts are here.

I'll be back soon, and returning to more straight political analysis in the days ahead. I thank you for your forbearance.

Spring Break!

Will try to do some posting on the run. Obviously the MS primary on Tuesday and the saga of Eliot Spitzer being hoisted on his own petard is big news.

We will address!

Back soon!

Coach

Who reads "The Deep End?"

Those who read this blog will know that I am just a little ol' feller who teaches high school.

But sometimes I wonder who reads this blog. You send things into cyberspace and you wonder...is anyone reading this?

I go through literally dozens of political websites, online newspapers, and other blogs to get my info and ideas. Most reflect my viewpoint but many do not.

This showed up on Rush Limbaugh's website today, and I have to wonder if he read my blog from Tuesday...

Hey Coach, what is a superdelegate anyway?

Good question, self...let's see if we can clear this up...to do so, will require a little history lesson. And since I am a history teacher, that's right down my alley.

In 1972 Richard Nixon thumped George McGovern like a narc at a biker rally. McGovern had been chosen through a string of primaries by the anti-war wing of the Democrat party. Most Americans had soured on the war, but they wanted to get out without simply dropping the South Vietnamese and running. Nixon was in the process of negotiating a settlement with the North Vietnamese in Paris, so McGovern's strategy was rejected in a 49 state landslide. (I still remember bumper stickers on proud Massachusetts cars that said, "Don't blame me, I'm from Massachusetts") The Democrat party decided that while they favored the more democratic system of primaries for choosing their candidate they needed to have some kind of party control in case the average voter went off the deep end (pun intended) and picked another candidate in a fit of emotion rather than a rational choice that had a chance to win an election.

So the party invented the Super Delegate. Most of them are party officials, elected representatives (local, state, and federal) and past elected officials. For instance, how many of you know that Bill Clinton is a super delegate? Think Hillary will have to be calling him and offering him deals for his vote? ;)

Anyway, that is the system they set up. Every cycle, the Democratic National Committee sets down rules for how many delegates there will be, what each state gets, and who the super delegates are. It's been YEARS since we had a real contest that went to the convention (kinda ironic that the last one in the Democratic party was when Teddy Kennedy, in spite of lacking the votes, fought the incumbent Jimmy Carter right down to the convention. Some old Dem pols still hold a grudge against Teddy, saying that his primary challenge of Carter softened the Georgian up for Ronald Reagan...and now Teddy may be doing the same to Hillary. Some things never change)

If you have a Democrat congressman, he's probably a super delegate. He is beholden to NO ONE. He can choose whoever he likes. He can also change his mind at the drop of a hat.

The math is such that it is nearly 100 percent certain that Obama will have the most delegates going into the convention in Denver, but it is nowhere near certain that his total will be enough to win outright. Many delegates were chosen during the primaries/caucuses as "uncommitted" and some still belong to John Edwards, Bill Richardson, etc. We aren't talking many, here, but at this point, Puerto Rico and it's 60 plus delegates will be fought over tooth and nail this June.

So we may very well hear sordid stories of cars, jobs, real estate (remember Whitewater) and other things being rumored to have been offered to super delegates. All will be denied...which probably means that it's true. Or perhaps they will use their leverage to exact election promises from the candidates, like here.

Wow...am I cynical or what?

Hope this helps...this would be a great post to start a comment thread on if I still haven't made things clear or you just want to talk more about this. Have at it!

Coach

"There will be blood"

No, I am not talking about the Daniel Day-Lewis movie based on the famous muckraker book, "Oil!", I am talking about the Democratic party primary process.

Hillary's victory in three out of four primaries has put her back in the hunt. Obama's lone victory of Vermont last night was hugely overshadowed by her winning of the other three, particularly Texas. But what should concern the Democrats last night was her overwhelming victory in Ohio. The Democrats must win a big population red state from McCain if they are going to retake the White House. Most pundits figured that to be Ohio, hit hard by free trade and the manufacturing slowdown. Also, polling data is beginning to question whether the blue collar vote will support a candidate with Obama's...um...demographics...

But Obama retains the delegate lead, and he will pick off some more victories in the next few weeks like the upcoming contests in Wyoming and Mississippi. She has 6 weeks before the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd, her next chance for a big delegate score. The pressure on the "superdelegates" will be excruciating and the angst inside the Democratic party hierarchy will accelerate. It's a perfect storm of crisis proportions for Howard Dean and his people running the DNC. And what will they do about Florida and Michigan? You can't have a convention where only 48 states are seated!

McCain's easy victories last night that officially gave him the nomination will be capped by an White House lawn endorsement today. He gets to raise money and repair fences in his base while the Democrats rip themselves to shreds over the next few months raising the spectre of Denver as Chicago 1968. At this point, whichever candidate wins the nomination, the loser's followers may see McCain as an acceptable alternative.

Who saw this coming just a few months ago?

Keep your eye focused on the media bias. Obama has gotten a free pass for months, now the press is questioning if he has the stomach for the kind of bare-knuckle brawl that will be necessary to win this thing...both for Denver, and for November. He's been above the fray...can he win this this backstreet style? We know the Clintons can. They will do what it takes, including hint that they would put Obama on the ticket, in order to win a third term in the White House.

Gonna need more popcorn...

Coach

Can Hillary become Michael Myers?

No...not the former Saturday Night Live star. I don't mean that she is Austin Powers, I am referring to one of the original stars of the "villain that won't die" genre, Halloween. Whether it's Jason of Friday the 13th fame or Freddy Krueger of the Nightmare on Elm Street series, teen slasher films always had a villain that was killed over and over only to find some way to have either NOT perished or be revived for yet another money gushing sequel. Hey, teens have to go on dates to movies, why not keep using what works? And teen slasher films worked over and over in the 80s and 90s. Eventually, they even found a way to have Jason fight Michael Myers...what a country, eh?

Well, after weeks of "How did Hillary lose this?" and "How will Obama repair our damaged relationship with our allies once he's inaugurated?" articles, America awakens to "Super Tuesday II" with polls suggesting that Hillary is rising from the dead to challenge Obama. Helped by a media now treating him like a candidate rather than the Second Coming with coverage of a flap over NAFTA and questions about his relationship with a former slumlord, Hillary's latest poll numbers suggest a possible mixed result tonight. Put away the crown, Barack, this thing ain't done yet, they seem to say.

Most pundits seem to feel that she will win Ohio. The question is whether she will win it strongly enough to secure a decent advantage in delegates awarded. Texas will be the contest to watch tonight. First, she needs to win it. Second, she needs to win it by more than a few % points because of the way the rules will award delegates, weighted heavily to award more for inner city districts, which should be heavy Obama territory. The other problem for Hillary is that early voting started weeks ago in Texas, so any late move in Hillary's direction may not be reflected very strongly in Texas' results.

There are two other states that will have primaries today. Vermont will select 15 delegates and those should go heavily to Obama, but Hillary should do very well in Rhode Island where 21 seats are at stake.

And what of the Republicans? McCain should come within a handful of delegates and officially finishing what was evident weeks ago. Huckabee is in this for...I dunno...what is he in it for? No one seems to know. Some Republicans will vote in the Democratic primaries today. Some will vote for Hillary to keep it going, as right-wing talk show maven Rush Limbaugh has suggested ("Keep her in it so we can win it"). Others will vote for Obama in order to hasten the anticipated end of the Clinton political story.

So, Coach, what's the bottom line? The bottom line is that Obama can accelerate the fervor of Democrat leadership calling for Hillary to end things quietly so that the party can unify for the fall campaign. Hillary's reaction, at least publicly, has been "I'm just getting started."

Everything in her life has been part of the plan for this moment: The first woman president. She is not likely to get another shot in the future. She knows it's now or never.

Tonight we may get a big clue as to which one it will be...

Coach