Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Can Hillary become Michael Myers?

No...not the former Saturday Night Live star. I don't mean that she is Austin Powers, I am referring to one of the original stars of the "villain that won't die" genre, Halloween. Whether it's Jason of Friday the 13th fame or Freddy Krueger of the Nightmare on Elm Street series, teen slasher films always had a villain that was killed over and over only to find some way to have either NOT perished or be revived for yet another money gushing sequel. Hey, teens have to go on dates to movies, why not keep using what works? And teen slasher films worked over and over in the 80s and 90s. Eventually, they even found a way to have Jason fight Michael Myers...what a country, eh?

Well, after weeks of "How did Hillary lose this?" and "How will Obama repair our damaged relationship with our allies once he's inaugurated?" articles, America awakens to "Super Tuesday II" with polls suggesting that Hillary is rising from the dead to challenge Obama. Helped by a media now treating him like a candidate rather than the Second Coming with coverage of a flap over NAFTA and questions about his relationship with a former slumlord, Hillary's latest poll numbers suggest a possible mixed result tonight. Put away the crown, Barack, this thing ain't done yet, they seem to say.

Most pundits seem to feel that she will win Ohio. The question is whether she will win it strongly enough to secure a decent advantage in delegates awarded. Texas will be the contest to watch tonight. First, she needs to win it. Second, she needs to win it by more than a few % points because of the way the rules will award delegates, weighted heavily to award more for inner city districts, which should be heavy Obama territory. The other problem for Hillary is that early voting started weeks ago in Texas, so any late move in Hillary's direction may not be reflected very strongly in Texas' results.

There are two other states that will have primaries today. Vermont will select 15 delegates and those should go heavily to Obama, but Hillary should do very well in Rhode Island where 21 seats are at stake.

And what of the Republicans? McCain should come within a handful of delegates and officially finishing what was evident weeks ago. Huckabee is in this for...I dunno...what is he in it for? No one seems to know. Some Republicans will vote in the Democratic primaries today. Some will vote for Hillary to keep it going, as right-wing talk show maven Rush Limbaugh has suggested ("Keep her in it so we can win it"). Others will vote for Obama in order to hasten the anticipated end of the Clinton political story.

So, Coach, what's the bottom line? The bottom line is that Obama can accelerate the fervor of Democrat leadership calling for Hillary to end things quietly so that the party can unify for the fall campaign. Hillary's reaction, at least publicly, has been "I'm just getting started."

Everything in her life has been part of the plan for this moment: The first woman president. She is not likely to get another shot in the future. She knows it's now or never.

Tonight we may get a big clue as to which one it will be...

Coach

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