Hopefully, there is where the parallels will stop. We don't need a redux of 1968 replete with assassinations, riots, protests, etc. But there is certainly the concern of acrimony over tactics, race, gender, distrust of "backroom dealing" and the loser may yell "we wuz robbed!"
After all the sturm und drang leading up to Super Tuesday, there is no clear favorite among the Democrats. Obama won more states, but Hillary won three of the four most populous states. Both had overwhelming majorities of two major Democratic demographic groups: Hillary won massively with Latinos, Obama with blacks. Obama bit hard into Hillary's constituency of women, and Hillary won much of the male labor union vote; Bill remains a strong asset to her campaign and her appeal.
So where does that leave us? With a campaign that will probably abound with acrimonious fights over the "lost" delegations of Michigan and Florida, for one. This will get a lot of airplay over the next few months, so get used to it. Each week will have the "next critical primary/caucus".
What about the elephants? Well, it wasn't a great night for McCain, but it was good enough. He could "place" and "show" for most of the rest of the primary season and he will still amass enough delegates to become the nominee. With most of the rest of the delegates being awarded in each state on a proportional basis, it is hard to come up with a scenario where McCain does not win the GOP nod. Romney seems to have suffered from a southern trend that just can't quite vote for a Mormon, and Huckabee became the beneficiary of that three way split in the vote. However, Huckabee seems to have little mass appeal outside of the Bible Belt. Will he expect a VP tap from McCain as a reward?
Romney has a big decision to make. He has spent upwards of $50 million of his personal fortune so far. Losing California, when some late polls had suggested it was in reach, was a huge blow to his desire to be seen as the last refuge for conservatives who oppose McCain. Wisdom might suggest that now is the time to get out, endorse McCain, and prepare for a second run in '12 or '16. Huckabee has seen most of the states where he has a chance to win; if he has his eye on a spot in a McCain administration, he might find his bargaining position is at it's highest now. The party will put pressure on those two to get out as soon as possible.
It will be very difficult for the Republicans to hold the White House this November. The Democrats are fired up like we haven't seen since 1992...hmm....who ran then? Even in "red" states, most primaries saw more Democrats vote in their primaries than Republicans. In an election, the enthusiasm of your followers for the candidate is key to success. McCain will need all the time he can spare between now and November to try to repair the damage done to his relationship with the conservative wing of his party. Many doubt it can be done, but all pundits know that he can't possibly win without them.
The consensus opinion is that the best thing the Republicans would have going for them this fall is to have McCain at the top of the ticket and Hillary opposing him. They calculate that even the most rabid right-winger, who considers McCain to be "liberal", will grudgingly cast a vote for him this fall in order to prevent a return to power by the Clintons.
I wouldn't bet on that.
Meanwhile, some old enemies are preparing to remind us that they may end up being a factor to consider when electing a commander-in-chief...
Coach
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