Toast or phoenix?

That's the question people are asking now...is Hillary toast, or liable to rise like a phoenix from the ashes. President Bush's legacy...millstone to the Republicans or likely to be reassessed more positively by historians. John McCain, past his prime or right for the time? Barack Obama, too green or just right for today's scene?

It's darn hard to drive down the road while keeping your eyes focused on the rear-view mirror. If the last few months have proven anything, it's that a few months is plenty of time for things to change drastically; there's that word "change" again.

Let's look just 5 months ago...Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in for the nomination...Iraq was considered a hopeless disaster by BOTH party's leadership. Bush was hated by anyone with black skin. John McCain was too old and his campaign in too much disarray to have any chance at the Republican nomination. How could anyone vote for a guy named "Huckabee"? You might as well call yourself "Gomer Pyle." No one could get the Republican nomination without the endorsement of right-wing talk radio. The mainstream civil rights leadership was behind Hillary Clinton because Obama was too inexperienced. Besides, the white electorate wouldn't vote for a black person. Young people rarely vote or care about politics. Latinos would never vote for a black candidate. The New York Times would never print gossip about a presidential candidate. All of these have gone the way of "I'll respect you in the morning", "the check is in the mail", and my favorite, "I'm from the government, I'm here to help."

Now...where are we? Hillary is being called "done for" by so many media outlets that those who say she ISN'T done for are the exception. Iraq is even being acknowledged as having turned the corner those who said just the opposite a year ago and has almost disappeared from the election debate as Petraeus is recommending troop drawdowns. Bush is being hailed by rock stars and African NGOs as the president who has done the most for that beleaguered continent in recent history. McCain is the going to be the Republican nominee. Only Huckabee is left, after Mr. Olympia and his $46 million have left the scene. Limbaugh, Hannity, Coulter et. al. can only fume about the rise of McCain. The civil rights leadership and the Super Delegates are trying to sneak out of the Clinton camp undetected. White voters are flocking to Obama led by young voters. Even Latinos may give him their vote over Hillary in Texas. And the Times has slimed McCain the day after he declared himself to be the nominee. McCain's longstanding friendship with the press has earned him defenders from amongst the most unlikely media corners.

What should we take from all this?

That any polls prior to November of 2008 are garbage. Does this mean we will stop setting ourselves up for these kinds of misjudgments with future predictions?

Heck no! What will bloggers like me do? ;)

By the way...one of the best at political analysis is Michael Barone. His assessment of the general election at this point in time can be seen here.

Coach