Friday, February 15, 2008

A trickle becoming a torrent

Early on in her campaign, Hillary Clinton enjoyed the support of the black congressional establishment for her White House bid. Now, it appears the effects of the massive black turnout for Barack Obama in the primaries is causing black congressmen to switch their committment as Super Delegates from Hillary to Obama. John Lewis, who marched with Dr. King, announced yesterday that he is wavering and may change his endorsement.

If someone as prominent in the civil rights leadership as Lewis switches, he will give "cover" to dozens of other African-American supporters of Hillary to follow suit. The leaks in the Clinton dike could become a torrent over the next few weeks, regardless of how she does in the critical battlegrounds of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

I would imagine Bill is burning up the phone lines trying to persuade Hillary's black supporters to await the March primaries before making any "rash" moves, when he's not desperately raising money for her flagging bid.

On the Republican side, McCain picked up Mitt Romney's formal endorsement and, more importantly, the possibility of the couple hundred delegates who are pledged to support the former Massachusetts governor. Each state's primary or caucus has it's own rules, so some of the delegates may not be free to cast their ballots for McCain on the first vote at the St. Paul convention, but it adds to the sense of inevitability of McCain's bid for the nomination.

What did Huckabee think of all this? He stated that it was nothing more than another party vote of "me too" when he represents the part of conservatism that says "not me too."

While Huckabee runs the political version of the Flat Earth Society, McCain continues to raise money for the general election and hopes that the Democrats will build ill will amongst the Hillary and Obama camps so that the faithful of the losing side will consider moving to his camp for the fall election.

This Tuesday, Hawaii and Wisconsin will choose delegates (HI is a caucus, WI a primary) and while Obama should easily win in his boyhood home of Hawaii, Hillary badly needs no worse than a close defeat in the land of cheese, the Green Bay Packers, and Battling Bob Lafollette. Right about now, her campaign may need a Brett Favre "hail Mary" touchdown pass...

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