All over but the shouting?

The Democrats had their final debate prior to Super Tuesday on Thursday night, and the pundits will start tracking with their Blackberries to determine what the probable delegate counts will be on the morning of February 6th. To a great extent, last night's debate was an attempt by the two survivors to show how they can play like adults and rise above the rancor shown the night before at the Republican debate. They succeeded.

Hillary came away with the sound bite I am sure we will hear from now until November 5: "It did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush." It was no surprise to see a huge roar of approval from the Hollywood audience that is enthusiastic for either one of the candidates to replace the current occupant of the White House. Which will be the nominee?

All signs point to a tightening race in a total of votes, but as in the general election, the point is to win states and their caches of delegates. While the recent endorsements of Obama are likely to help, especially in fundraising for the Illinois senator, Hillary is still the presumptive nominee. Look for Bill to be much quieter these days and rather than holding rallies, spend more of his time doing what he does best: raising money.

It will be interesting to see the strategy and results of the time between when it dawns on people that the nominating process is all but over (I suggest that will happen in about 10 days) and the summer conventions. The Clintons must have a huge cache of things to unload on a man like John McCain who has a public record in the Senate going back decades. Will that turn things around from polls that show either Democrat with a 6-8 point deficit to the former Navy pilot?

There hasn't been a lot of changes in the political ether that would suggest we have had any significant realignment of the Electoral College landscape in the USA. There are some more subtle changes in each party, and the effect that would have on "purple" states is unclear. It leads us to some obvious questions:

Should Hillary and McCain be the nominees this fall what happens in the closer states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire?

Do rank and file union members (Reagan Democrats) choose the more moderate McCain over Hillary because of her gender...and her feminist attitudes and personality?

Does the hardcore conservative base, who have to flip a coin to see if they hate McCain more or Hillary more, stay home? They were a large part of George W. Bush's margin in some close midwestern states and a big part of his financial and worker base for the Get Out The Vote effort. Will their Hillary Derangement Syndrome force them to hold their noses and vote for McCain?

Will the diversity crowd, who the Clintons hit with a political 2X4 in South Carolina, forgive Hillary and come home...or choose a Republican who seems almost as much at odds with conservative Republicans as they are?

Does the ton of dirt and skeletons, which the media will dredge up at the behest of the Clintons, change the public image of McCain as an honorable war hero who is a maverick within his own party?

Does his age become a factor?

Does her husband become a factor?

Will either one surprise us with their VP pick? McCain would seem to need a conservative to offer an olive branch to his base. Hillary might want a Bill Richardson to cement the Latinos as her new base since she may have damaged herself with the African-American community.

Finally, the possible surprise that no one seems to think of...will Al Qaida or the situation in Iraq steal the show? Will we be in recession by November, or will we be grateful we dodged a bullet?(Things look better on that front with companies looking to grab opportunities as Microsoft is doing today)

Much to ponder in the months ahead...

Coach