A fundamental change in fortunes?

I want to apologize for not putting up a new blog post earlier. It seems that once school starts that my focus stays on the job that I am getting paid for!

There is no question that it has been a intense few weeks since John McCain showed that the old fighter pilot still has it in him to surprise people with his selection of Alaska governor Sarah Palin. To those of us who follow politics, the governor's poise and conservative views are familiar characteristics of this 44-year old "hockey mom."

The governor was the subject of an unprecedented examination by the mainstream (and tabloid) media the likes of which we have never seen. Some will argue that she has come through that with varying degrees of success. If there are some alarming discoveries, don't expect that this would be necessarily released as soon as it is discovered. Scandals and damaging stories are most effective when they come out in a drip-drip-drip fashion. The problem for Obama has been the slew of hard questions about him AND his running mate. Biden's son resigned his position as a lobbyist because of accusations that it undermines Obama's assertion that he doesn't seek the aid of the K Street lobbysts. McCain has run a series of hard-hitting ads on Obama and his positions on education, Iraq, the economy, and the consistent questions about his readiness to lead or the consistency of his "hope and change" mantra with moments such as the "lipstick on a pig" comments. All of this has put Obama on the defensive where no candidate wants to be with 7 weeks to go in an election.

Palin agreed to a thorough grilling by ABC anchor Charlie Gibson that will be analyzed for the next several weeks but seems to have had a net neutral at the worst.

Now comes evidence that ABC edited her interview in order to make her look more extreme to the viewers. When you realize that the McCain campaign was accused of "protecting" Governor Palin from the media, and then see the way they chopped up her responses in the interview with Gibson, you can understand the McCain campaign's reluctance to have Mrs. Palin defined by the skill of the editor's knife. Disgraceful. I anticipate that one of the unintended consequences of this election will be the complete exposure of the near criminal bias of our national news media. This isn't just my opinion. Poll after poll after poll has shown that a large majority of the voters believe that the media is biased in favor of Senator Obama. When you have something as important as a presidential election in the hands of editors who can make anyone look extreme or stupid by the use of the editing room, that is unacceptable. Who do these people think they are? They are no longer the unquestioned "gatekeepers" of knowledge and opinion. The new media, led by internet bloggers and YouTube videos, are the Davids that will sink the stone in the forehead of the media Goliaths. I can't say that many will cry a river for them when it is over. There is a certain sense of schadenfreude about watching their earnings and stock price decline as well.

I will leave it to each reader to judge her qualifications (certainly there has been a wide range of persons chosen to be vice-president in our nation's history...witness Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Dan Quayle or Harry Truman...quite a diverse group). What I want to analyze in this post is the effect it has had on the race.

There is no question that it has energized McCain personally, and much of what we call "the Republican base." This means mainly conservative Republicans, who have often looked askance at McCain because of his open criticisms of President Bush and a willingness to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats rather than assail or defeat them. This "maverick" nature is a characteristic that appeals to some Democrats and many independents. Will he be able to keep both groups satisfied?

Palin's selection has led some Republicans to conclude that McCain is setting up the party for a conservative agenda for years to come with the Alaska governor's promotion and exposure to a national audience. Even should McCain lose this election, she has become a world-recognized figure. She will not become a trivia question like Geraldine Ferraro did after the 1984 election.

Already this wider question of the impact on the race is being answered with a consistent reading of the polling data. Just about every major national poll is showing the race either tied or with a slight McCain lead. See here, here, here and here. This is quite a reversal from the end of the Democratic Convention. Could this simply be a factor of McCain's "convention bounce?" Yes, perhaps. If this coming week ends with things basically unchanged, then McCain has gone from being the underdog to the front-runner.

It seems the Obama campaign's internal polling must be showing them at least the same kind of movement as they announced a major revision of their campaign strategy just the other day. This also came in the wake of Obama's two-hour meeting with the last Democrat to win the presidency: Bill Clinton. Ironically, as successful as Mr. Clinton has been in his own election fortunes, his record of helping others get elected, when he campaigns for them, is pretty poor; note that his wife is watching these events from the sidelines...except in states where she can raise money to retire her campaign debt! His emotional stability has even been called into question when he was campaigning for his wife this past year.

Some of Obama's "new strategy" ads blew up in his face immediately. He tried to use a whimsical approach accusing McCain of being out of touch because he doesn't personally read his email. The fact is, that it was widely reported, in McCain's last run for the presidency that because of his torture in a North Vietnamese prison, he CAN'T use a keyboard. But as ranking member of the Senate Subcommittee on Technology, he was one of the first in that august body to use the Web and he has always dictated his emails to his wife Cindy so that he can stay on top of things. This is an amazing goof by the Obama camp...and ironically, one that a simple Google search would have prevented. This does not inspire public confidence that Obama is careful before he opens fire on his enemies and calls into question whether his staff is "ready for prime time."

But national polls are little more than media fodder, the real fight is in the states. In this area, things are even more alarming for the Obama Camp. Suddenly, states that Gore and Kerry won against Mr. Bush are in play. Polling in "blue" states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, even New Jersey, are putting McCain in striking distance. Western blue states may soon come into play, as Washington now seems to be. Look for McCain to use western Palin to appeal to those states such Nevada, Oregon, and Washington (she and her husband are dyed-in-the-wool Seattle Seahawk fans). Add in her midwestern-type of twang, and you will see a lot of Sarah in the midwest in these last few weeks.

Keep in mind what I have been saying for months now. Watch where the candidates go...this will tell you what their internal polling is showing. Also remember that Obama still has the tougher challenge: he must turn some "red" states "blue. But he must do that while holding all his blue states. It does him no good to pick off New Mexico, Colorado or Iowa if McCain captures Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Finally, Obama has to also watch his back. Hillary must appear to help him while hoping he goes down to ignominious defeat so that she can be the "I told you so" candidate in 2012. Her problem is she better watch what she wishes for as a Vice-President Palin may steal much of her appeal should a President McCain choose to only serve one term and retire at 76.

And while he has his eye on the ball, he must survive second-guessing by his party. Now polls are showing huge movements in the public at large towards the Republicans that could change the make-up of the Congress. Only 33 seats in the 100 seat Senate and even a worse-case scenario makes it likely that the Democrats should at least enlarge their slim majority in that body by a few seats. But all 435 seats come up for grabs every two years in the House of Representatives. Most of the seats that the Democrats won to retake control in 2006 were won by slight 53-47 type margins. If the public, which has given this Congress record-low approval ratings, decides to put the Republicans back in control, Nancy Pelosi's short-lived reign as Speaker of the House will come to an end. Keep your eye on whether the Democrats give in on the congressional ban on off-shore drilling. Polls continue to show that off-shore drilling remains a popular strategy with a wide-range of voters.

All in all, it continues to be one of the most fascinating election campaigns in US history...and when you consider that we started with a knockdown drag out in 1796 between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, that's saying quite a lot!

A late edit...I am working on a response to Whoopi Goldberg's widely covered comment during McCain's visit to The View yesterday about whether she should be concerned about "should I be concerned about being a slave again" to McCain's views about appointing Supreme Court justices who would simply interpret the Constitution as written by the Framers and not try to write laws from the bench. Look for that post on my other blog "Lincoln's Ghost" by clicking at the link on the sidebar. Thanks.