Elections tell us a lot about the American voter. Last night I learned that there truly are two Americas.
I suspected that many Americans were ready to try European-style socialism. I was right about that.
Longtime radio commentator Paul Harvey had one of his most quoted homilies about America and creeping socialism.
He said: "In America there are people pulling the wagon and people riding on the wagon.
We've always had many more pulling than riding.
But more and more people are jumping on and riding on the wagon.
Someday, there will be so many riders, they will be able to outvote the people
who are pulling. When that happens, the America we have known will be dead."
That may seem to be an overreaction, but that is what I was thinking last night watching the voters elect Barack Obama and large Democrat majorities in both houses of Congress. Elections have consequences and the results of this one will be particularly interesting to watch. They are also very representative of our national thinking.
For many decades, the American voter has switched control of the US government from one party to another. This year was no different. John McCain, God bless him, is a real American hero, but he had a stiff wind blowing in his face, especially with the economic meltdown of a month ago.
Barack Obama promised many options for the American voter:
The chance to expunge some of the taint of slavery and Jim Crow from American history
A turn towards socialism. McCain thought this would hurt Obama in the last few weeks. Obama never fully refuted the label...because it was part of his appeal.
The antidote to Bush. Obama was much of what Bush was not: eloquent, socialist, pro-new Europe, non-interventionist, Democrat, urban, Northern, and non-white. After 8 years of media Bush-bashing, the market for this was huge.
One in 5 of Bush voters from 2004, voted for Obama. Republicans need to find out why. Only 16% of Hillary voters from the primaries voted for McCain, not nearly as many as Republican operatives had hoped.
What happens now? Will he govern by "reaching across the aisle" as he promised or as a fierce partisan. The early signs, only hours into his election, are not encouraging. Rahm Emmanuel is Dick Cheney on steroids. What will he do in his first few months?
A lot, probably. Obama has huge majorities in both houses of Congress to work with. Except for the most extreme proposals, which the Republicans COULD filibuster in the Senate (which I don't think they will), Obama will get everything passed that he wants. That's good and bad. For both sides. He now owns it. There isn't even the faintest straw man of a Republican opposition to blame for any problems now. That doesn't mean that he won't get a hugely long honeymoon from his minions in the US news media. He will get years of passes from "it's gonna take a long time to undo 8 years of damage that Bush did to the country." This may or may not last to the congressional elections in 2010. There were some Republicans who actually bucked the trend last night and had some victories, unlike the blood bath the GOP suffered in 2006. But for the most part, Obama will be given a much longer honeymoon after this election than President Bush was given after 9/11. It helps to have the US news media on your side as cheerleaders. Polls before the election showed that even the voters knew the media was in the tank for Obama.
Some of our enemies already see the opportunities out there. Russia hasn't even slept off the vodka hangover from celebrating Obama's election before throwing down the gauntlet.
Nor will the Islamic extremists wait for the new president to be inaugurated from taking steps to bring their customs and laws into the American financial system. Stunning, isn't it? And the Iranians wasted no time, either. Welcome to the majors, Mr. Obama.
And expect President-elect Obama to push for several pieces of legislation that could have a serious long-term impact on American society. How will the media report these things? If Americans don't understand their effects until they have become law, how will we ever have a public debate about them? Here is a list from a reporter on National Review Online:
* Employee Free Choice Act
* Fairness Doctrine(translation: get Limbaugh, Hannity, O'Reilly, etc off the air)
* Freedom of Choice Act
* Nationalization of health care
* Estate tax increases
* "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" (driver's licenses for illegals)
* Capital gains tax increases
* Defense cuts
* Liberal judicial appointments
* Racial and ethnic preferences
* Income tax increases
* Bans on oil drilling
* Global poverty tax/Kyoto
Jim Geraghty at NRO has a long-time mentor who goes back to the Goldwater campaign who had some helpful thoughts about last night's results for despondent Republicans. I link those here...wise observations from a wizened veteran.
So...if you are happy about Obama's win, congratulations! He will certainly have the reins of power under our system to meet most, if not all, of his campaign promises of substance. If you are upset about his election, then realize that the congressional elections of 1994 were used to rein in the lurch to the left of the Clinton Administration and brought the Republicans to power in both houses of Congress for the first time since before FDR.
Flying under the radar is the additional governorships and state legislatures captured by the Democrats in the election. This is significant because after the 2010 census, the state legislatures will have the power to redraw congressional districts to favor the party in power in that state. This is called gerrymandering, and it has a lot to do with why you always seem to have a congressman from a certain political party in your district. It's as close to job security as there is in politics. It may not be fair, but it's legal...and it's completely bi-partisan. Both sides do it when in power. So if the Republicans don't make a huge comeback on the state government level, then the Democrats will be even harder to dislodge in the 2012 election.
The Democrats also made huge inroads, over 2004, in some key demographic groups. Hispanic Americans, now the largest minority in the USA, voted heavily for the Democratic party. However, when one looks at the various ballot initiatives around the country, you seen some very strange things. Every state that voted on gay marriage in some way saw gay marriage opposed everywhere, even in California. The victory of California's initiative, called Proposition 8, is most curious...until one looks at the polling data. One would think that Californians would vote FOR gay marriage. And the white population of the Golden State did. What is most interesting is that it's narrow victory seems to be due to the 70-30% margin of AFRICAN-AMERICANS who voted for the Prop 8's ban on gay marriage. So will California African-American Obama supporters be called anti-gay? It's a strange world.
At this point, unless some huge event happens between now and 2012 to change the dynamics, Barack Obama will be a heavy favorite for re-election in 2012.
All in all, I am glad it is over. I may have a few more post-mortem posts to make on this election. I had started this blog in order to talk about all sorts of cultural issues, not just politics. But this was a most fascinating year. How could I not get heavily into it?
So I will move along with other projects, including a book, I hope, and still expect to post things on this blog from time to time.
Thanks for reading...and congratulations to President-elect Obama. When I think of my memories of traveling through the Jim Crow south as a youngster, it's one of those things that, whether one supported his candidacy or not, makes you feel proud to be an American!
God Bless America!
Coach
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