Hi gang! I hope summer is going well for those who enjoy reading this blog. I recently finished my summer adult ed classes so I hope to be more up to date with the blog!
A quick look at the state of the presidential election...
Things have tightened up quite a bit since mid-July. Most polls have the race between a slight Obama lead and a tie. One USA Today poll of likely voters had McCain ahead but for now, we will consider that an outlier since no one else seems to have any results close to it. An outlier is when your polling data somehow falls outside of the statistical margin of error. Weird things can happen with polling, since all it is is an estimate of where public opinion stands at any point in time with a specific population.
But there is little doubt that the comfortable lead Obama once had nationally is gone an it is looking like the close contests we have had in this decade. So where does it stand right now?
On a state by state basis, Obama still looks to be ahead. This is to be expected because this is the peak of the 16 year presidential election cycle that has held true for most of the past century. The only break in that cycle was the special circumstance that led FDR to win 4 elections, followed by Truman's victory. 16 years ago...Bill Clinton...16 years earlier...Jimmy Carter...16 years previous...JFK.It's not perfect, but it certainly fits in well with the rise of the independent voter as party loyalties continue to decline.
After GW Bush benefited from the mid-cycle Republican peak in 2000, it would naturally turn to the Democrats to benefit. This is mainly resulting from the tendency of "independents" to favor one party for 8 years, and then vote differently because it's now "time for the other party to see what it can do." Independents are different kinds of voters than party loyalists; they vote based on what the candidate will most do for "me." After 8 years of Bush and the Republicans, independents would naturally turn to the Democrats to see what they will do for "them." They began this process by electing a Democratic congress in 2006. That has, however, led to a congress with the lowest national approval polling numbers ever.
With the strong national awareness of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as the nation's first woman Speaker of the House, much of the unhappiness about the Congress' latest term might be laid at their feet. Will the 16 year cycle bail them out? Perhaps. But Pelosi and her Democratic party-run Congress are in big trouble with the American people.
Remember how in past posts, I have talked about watching what politicians do more than what they say? When the Democrats rammed through an adjournment for their 5 week summer break last Friday, they succeeded by only one vote and with howls from the Republican House members who wanted a vote on an energy bill that included a removal of the Congressional ban on offshore drilling for US oil companies. Pelosi's answer was that she was "trying to save the planet" but Americans are a basically fair people and they don't like the idea of preventing congressmen from at least debating and then voting on an oil drilling bill when gasoline is at $4 a gallon.
After the adjournment, the Republican house members took to the floor to speak out against these strong-arm tactics, as the Speaker's office mandated the cutoff of CSPAN cameras and the microphones and lights were turned off. This was a major publicity coup for the demoralized Republican members of the house who believe that they have been handed a popular issue that cuts across party lines: gas prices.
What has happened since then? The Republicans continue to show up there every day in the House and speak, even though the mikes and cameras remain off. It's great theater for the large crowds of American vacationers who had expected nothing but empty chambers in the nation's Capitol. What good does this do them?
1) It builds their image of "the party looking out for YOU", and presents the Democrats as the party out playing golf, raising money, and riding in limos, and trying to hype a poorly selling book that has been getting more than it's fair share of spoofing here and here.. It doesn't matter if that is true or not, it plays well. The lack of media coverage is less of a problem in the day of the "new media". Cell phone movies of Republicans calling for congress to come back in session and vote on the drilling bill have been shown on Fox News Channel, web sites, and will continue for the summer. Expect to have those emailed to you all summer.
2) The Republicans must be seeing polling data showing it has hit a chord with the nation, or they would have stopped after the weekend. They are energized as they see the Speaker has put her party in a difficult bind. The longer gas prices stay high, the greater the effect this could have in polling data and in fund raising for a party that has been getting told "NO" by a lot of the donors who helped Bush win re-election. They may not like McCain that much but they would LOVE to return Pelosi to Minority leader. This is still unlikely...but if trends stay strong for a while, it's not unthinkable.
3)The Democrats won their "landslide" congressional victory in 2006 with a number of 53-47 wins. Not many "independents" will have to switch their votes in order for the House up for grabs once again. This would be the Democrats worst nightmare.
Add to that the challenge facing Obama lately, and you can see why the Democrats are getting more nervous every day as we approach the time for the party convention in Denver. Obama is heading to Hawaii for some R & R, but in reality, this is the perfect time to do this as Americans start to tune out politics for a short while and focus on the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Both candidates have bought $5-6 million in advertising in the games. Watch what each choose to show in this prime visibility offering. If they stay with the same theme...or, more importantly, take a different direction, that will be significant.
Obama has much to be worried about of late. Remember that it is a 51 state election, and some very important states are either falling out of his reach or suddenly in play. For example, check out these latest polls from Massachusetts, Oregon, Florida, and Wisconsin(which should be an Obama runaway), just for a few. He is accusing McCain of being in the pocket of Big Oil, but actual campaign contributions paint a very different picture of just who is getting money from "Big Oil." MoveOn.org is planning a number of ads attacking Republicans on the oil issue but even top Obama supporters are concerned that they may backfire on the presumptive nominee.
And Hillary Clinton is waiting in the wings. He is NOT the nominee yet. If just 120 odd superdelegates decide to either switch or abstain on the first ballot, then all bets are off because most committed delegates are free to vote their conscience after the first ballot. Hillary is quietly letting them know that she is still there and can BEAT McCain. She is being very demure about perhaps wanting her name placed in nomination. And Obama has shown his overconfidence by doing what I said he would do someday: argued that all the delegates from Florida and Michigan to have their full representation. She's has to be THRILLED at that...it makes the number needed to cause a second ballot even smaller. Bad move, Barack...fair, but you are up against the Clintons.
And what did Bill mean the other day, when asked about supporting Obama for the nomination that he was "I think everybody's got a right to run for President who qualifies under the Constitution." For the man who wanted to be sure everyone agreed on what the definition of "'is' is", this is a curious statement. Many bloggers are digging into Obama's past wondering why they have been unable to find his birth certificate. Some suspect it's just an "embarrassing" name change, (Indonesian stepfather Lolo Soetolo?) but some question if he was born in the USA. Personally, I think this is garbage, but on the other hand, it's just the kind of thing the Clintons have been known to release as we get close to a big decision in order to "muddy the waters." If a major news outlet deals with this kind of story right before Denver...well, think about "cui bono"...who benefits.
To be sure, with the 16 year presidential cycle at his back, he is still the favorite, even though I would personally not bet on him at this point (Dukakis was ahead of GHW Bush by 13 at this point). A certain amount of "Obama fatigue" is setting in as it seems obvious to many Americans that the press favors him. People are starting to speculate about his short resume...and finding it wanting. He needs to stop making off-hand stumbles like this, this, this, and the symbol at the start of this blogpost.
Meanwhile, Old Tortoise McCain gets the right kind of "regular guy" visibility that are making Joe Six-Pack think about voting Republican for the first time in his life.
McCain survived the Hanoi Hilton...he can certainly take on Barack Obama.
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