Schizophrenic Tuesday

Another Tuesday, another big primary for the Democrats. Indiana and North Carolina hold their time in the spotlight tomorrow in two very different demographic groups for the two candidates.

North Carolina would normally have promised to be another repeat of past southern stompings administered to Hillary by Obama. Mostly because of the heavy African-American makeup of the Democratic party primary voters in the south, Obama has swept to big double-digit victories in Dixie. Will that repeat itself tomorrow?

Since the last victory, Mississippi, we have had the Reverend Wright connection addressed in two major Obama speeches, the "bitter and gun-clinging" episode in San Francisco, and Obama's off-hand remark about "typical white person" referring to his grandmother. Will this motivate southern whites to back Hillary by bigger numbers and offset some of Obama's votes in the black community? Will it encourage Republicans to take this chance to affect the Democratic nominating process as they seem to have done in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

In the Hoosier state, it should have been a solid win for the Clintons. Home state senator Evan Bayh, a member of one of Indiana's most storied political families, is working hard for Mrs. Clinton. Whispers continue that, if she is successful in the winning the nomination, he is on her short list to be her veep nominee. Obama has made Indiana's outcome uncertain because of the strength of the black vote in Indianapolis and the northwestern corner of the state; a de facto suburb of Chicago and Obama's home state of Illinois.

The most likely scenario is that tomorrow's contests will be a split decision. And if so, not much would change. But what path is it that would "remain unchanged?" A brokered convention? Howard Dean forcing a June ending to the blood-letting? Clinton Inc.'s scorched earth pursuit of the nomination?

Most experts seem agreed that if Obama were to win both primaries, the pressure on Hillary to withdraw could be unbearable. But what if she were to win both, or, more likely, win Indiana and come very close in North Carolina?

John McCain campaigned in New Orleans last week, continuing his "I'm not George Bush" tour of places where Bush dare not go. While there, he met with one of the few bright future stars of the Republican party. And, perhaps, his vice-presidential nominee?

I still believe that the Democrat party hierarchy have decided that Obama must be chosen in order to preserve the New Deal coalition that has kept the Democrats in control of Congress for most years since the Great Depression. They know that only the near unanimous support for the party's candidates over the last 40 years by African-American voters has kept them from being in the wilderness during the Nixon-Reagan presidencies. Without their support, they could never have regained control of Congress in 2006...and seem destined to enlarge those majorities this year...

...unless black voters were to stay home because Obama had been "cheated" out of the nomination by Clinton machinations. And the Clintons could only pull this fat out of the fire if the party higher-ups acquiesced.

But what do the voters think?

We are about to find out...

Coach