The night before...

It's 11 PM...do you know where your white ethnic blue collar voter is?

This is when the campaigns will be checking their lists of volunteers and who is getting their identified voters to the polls for the big Pennsylvania primary tomorrow. There has been some big brouhahas today.

First, Matt Drudge came out with a shout about 11 am claiming that Hillary's internal polling showed her up by 11. If true, it's significant. Internal polling is almost always very reliable. You live or die by it's accuracy and with the money they get paid by campaigns, you aren't in the business very long if you aren't good. It's completely different from the media polls we see in newspapers and TV. The Clinton campaign denied the report, but they had better. The last thing they want is complacency from their voters...they need them motivated to go to the polls.

Secondly, both came out with last minute ads...here is the YouTube for Hillary's, which almost immediately got a response from Obama here.

Finally, Hillary will spend tomorrow night in Indiana...the next battleground. This analysis by John McIntyre of RealClearPolitics.com gives the conventional wisdom and a good scorecard of expectations at the end that will help the casual viewer to judge how the candidates did.

If Hillary wins this in Ohio fashion(she won by 10 points), Obama is in more trouble than the media lets on. He must have those white ethnic voters in Rust Belt states if he wins the nomination and goes up against McCain in the fall. Without them...he can stop worrying about his middle name being Hussein...it will be McGovern instead.

Coach

PS...yet another example of how he had better get a thicker skin...quickly...