The night after...

So...what was settled?

1) No matter what happens from here on out, Hillary is in through the convention. She will never drop out now, and is looking to put more pressure on the freshman senator, perhaps hoping for another major gaffe or revelation.

2) She has won the primaries in most of the large population states. Only the ones without an asterisk were won by Obama. Illinois is, of course, his home state. And the margin there represents most of his popular vote edge over her. He will probably win North Carolina, which is #12...but both Georgia and North Carolina are red states. McCain should win them handily.

Pennsylvania *
California *
Texas *
Ohio *
Illinois
New York *
Florida *
Massachusetts *
Wisconsin
New Jersey *
Georgia
Michigan *

Remember that presently the rules of the convention are to deny any representation from Michigan and Florida. Regardless of how they do it, the Democrats will have to allow some kind of delegation from those states. They will have to have her delegates in majority, especially Florida where she won in a huge landslide. It won't give her the nomination, but it will make things more interesting.

3) Indiana and North Carolina are up on May 6. Obama should win with the heavy black population in the Democratic party in North Carolina, and the heavy numbers of academia and college youth in the universities will boost his margin. Indiana is more problematic for him.

Indianapolis should go for Obama, but the margin there, and in Gary (a near suburb of Chicago) may not offset the small towns and cities of Indiana. There, the blue collar workers of the auto parts and assembly industries should favor Clinton as they did in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

In the end, I would expect the same kind of result in Indiana as we saw in those two states, in the neighborhood of a 6-10% Clinton win.

The problem for the Democrats is that Obama has won a large part of his delegates in states that McCain will probably win in November. Hillary has won the contests in the states that a Democrat MUST win in order to be elected.

What happens now? It goes on...Hillary will win a big victory in West Virginia on May 13th. They will split Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th; Hillary will win KY big, Obama comfortably in Oregon. Puerto Rico should go for Hillary on June 1 and Obama should take both South Dakota and Montana on June 3...but again, those are both red states...and Puerto Rico can't even vote in the US general election. What a mess.

You couldn't pay me enough to be Howard Dean.

How are things going on the Republican side? All McCain has to do is stay clean and keep defining who he is...while they are distracted, the Democrats can't spend much time trying to define him as "McSame" or "Bush III". He won't raise as much money as the two Democrats over the next few months...but then, he doesn't need to. He's done. This is an excellent analysis of the situation as it is now, and the author, Ed Morrissey, cites Karl Rove's perceptive analysis of the race. Even if you think you hate Karl Rove, I suggest you click that link. He may be partisan, but he's also a good political analyst. Ignore him at your own peril. By the way, I would say that about people like James Carville or Pat Caddell (former managers of Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) as well.

Obama and Clinton are still raising money like crazy. Hillary claims to have raised $10 million in the 24 hours after Tuesday. They both are still spending like drunken sailors. Obama outspent Hillary 3-1 to lose in Pennsylvania. He spent $10 million there but it seems his earlier mentioned reticence to pay "walking around money" cut down his margin in Philadelphia and cost him at least a close loss.

The superdelegates are in a real crunch. What do they do? THEY WILL be determining this nomination. IF they choose her, the African-American vote may decide to riot in Denver (Sharpton is already promising this) and stay home in the fall. If they stay home, they may make any Hillary loss even worse...but, more disastrously, that lack of straight ticket Democrat voting from the inner city black voter could cost the party several close elections in the House and Senate. This is a nightmare for Pelosi and Reid.

If they choose Obama, you may not only continue to lose Ohio and Florida, as you did in 2000 and 2004, but you may lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Minnesota...heck, polls show it may even put liberal bastion Massachusetts in play.

McCain has played this right going back to 2000. He has kept his eye on two strategies...stay left of Bush(it remains to see how well that holds up over the campaign)...and court Latino voters with his stance on immigration. Except for the war, McCain has taken stances more moderate than the conservative base of the Republican party.

With the continuing civil war going on in the Democratic party, he may have himself right where he wants to be.

A lot can happen in just a few months...a few months ago, Hillary was the nominee waiting to be coronated...Mitt Romney's money was going to buy him the nomination...St. Rudy of 9/11 was the leader in all the polls...and Iraq was going to guarantee a Republican loss as Congress waited for the testimony of "General Betrayus". Iraq could actually end up being a plus for McCain.

A lot can still happen with six months to go...Events could swing towards the Democrats and lead to the landslide that everyone thought was inevitable last year...but at this point...I would rather be John McCain than either of the two Democrats.

Whoda thunk?