Deja Vu, all over again

The title of this latest post is one of those fun malapropisms attributed to New York Yankee catcher Yogi Berra. Who knows if he really said it, but it sounds plausible.

And so is the ongoing struggle for the Democrat party presidential nomination. It's deja vu, all over again. Is it 1972 or 1912? In 1972, the Democrat party picked the most liberal presidential candidate, one who was in favor of immediate withdrawal from an unpopular war, and lost in a massive landslide. The difference is that he was running against an incumbent president. In 1912, a bitter fight for the Republican nomination went down to a fight over credentials for delegates that came from a former president wanting to recapture the mantle of his party. Teddy Roosevelt had been one of the most popular presidents in US history and he wasn't pleased with how his hand-picked successor, William Howard Taft, had purged many of his ideas and supporters. TR caused a civil war within the party and after Taft's people had shut out most of Roosevelt's delegates, the bombastic former president went across the street and started his own third party: The Progressive Party. Asked if he was healthy enough to handle the brutal campaign ahead, Teddy announced confidently, "I feel as strong as a bull moose." Today, we know the most successful third party campaign as the time of the Bull Moose party. Roosevelt got second in the election, but he split the Republican vote and gave the election to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.

Will the current civil war within the Democrat party give the White House to John McCain? It's hard to say at this moment, but it appears that the longer this goes on, the more repair work that will need to be done in the fall. It seems every day we see articles like this from former defenders of the Clintons who are now deriding her for staying in the race. "Kamikaze?" Ouch. Meanwhile, Hillary is doing her best to scuttle her own chances in the last several days. Most are aware of the Bosnian phantom sniper fire snafu, but when you fire your main campaign advisor, or your husband, the former president, is reported to have blown a gasket in front of uncommitted superdelegates...well...it makes the "more experienced" candidate look like she is crumbling under pressure. None of this inspires confidence in the party as they look at a process which seems to be permitting the unlikely...a return of a Republican to the White House in the wake of an unpopular Republican incumbent.

Some analysts suggest that the process is faulty, and some suggest that if it were run like our general election, Hillary would already be the nominee. Not all Republicans think this scenario will help McCain. Some see President Obama in the future, but others realize that the Rev. Wright affair is likely to have a long-term effect on Obama's appeal to white voters; not because of racial problems, but patriotism questions. Expect that flag lapel pin issue and national anthem photos to revive in millions of emails.

So many areas are still to play out for an American electorate that is more focused on a possible recession than the November election. It's we political junkies who focus on all this minutiae in April.

On the actual issues front, high drama is coming into the campaign as General Petraeus returns for his next congressionally-mandated report to Congress on the progress of the surge. In spite of the recent flare-up in Basra, he is expected to have pretty good news.
In some ways, Basra makes the case for rejecting the Clinton/Obama calls for prompt withdrawal after the election. Many argue that Britain's premature withdrawal from Iraq's second largest city encouraged Sadr's power play there and that while Iraqi military prowess is improving, US military help to keep the local militias under control is still necessary. The Maliki government continues to get low marks from Democrats for it's slow political reform progress, but can we really say that the Democrat congress should be a model for the Iraqis? Recent approval numbers for the Pelosi/Reid congress might suggest otherwise. Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham give a bi-partisan response to Democrat leadership statements on the situation in Iraq. Look for McCain to lead the way in allowing Petraeus to make the case for improvement in Iraq; his success in the election may depend on it.

Finally, what do we make of speculation surrounding McCain's possible Veep nominee. McCain's age will continue to be a subject of concern for voters this fall, so his selection will have more of an impact than the Democrat nominee. The latest trial balloon seems to be Condi Rice. While it's possible that is true, I think it would be a mistake. Not that Condi wouldn't make a good veep...or even president, for that matter. I am really not sure. But it drags down the McCain campaign in two ways: She is a major player in an unpopular administration that the Democrats will try to tie McCain to...don't help them. Also, it will look like racial/gender pandering. It's bad enough to get an overdose of identity politics from the Democrats. This will look like a weak "we like women and black too" ploy by McCain. I hope he doesn't do it. It's too bad; I think Condi is good, but the timing is not right.

Finally, keep your eye on the main states. Remember that we do not truly have a national election: we have 51. (Don't forget DC gets 3 electoral votes) McCain is doing better than Obama in the major states, mainly because of the white vote and the Rev. Wright damage. This may get worse unless peace breaks out in the Democrat party soon.

Who could have foreseen this four months ago? Who knows what we will be talking about in 6 months!

Coach