Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Hey Coach, what is a superdelegate anyway?

Good question, self...let's see if we can clear this up...to do so, will require a little history lesson. And since I am a history teacher, that's right down my alley.

In 1972 Richard Nixon thumped George McGovern like a narc at a biker rally. McGovern had been chosen through a string of primaries by the anti-war wing of the Democrat party. Most Americans had soured on the war, but they wanted to get out without simply dropping the South Vietnamese and running. Nixon was in the process of negotiating a settlement with the North Vietnamese in Paris, so McGovern's strategy was rejected in a 49 state landslide. (I still remember bumper stickers on proud Massachusetts cars that said, "Don't blame me, I'm from Massachusetts") The Democrat party decided that while they favored the more democratic system of primaries for choosing their candidate they needed to have some kind of party control in case the average voter went off the deep end (pun intended) and picked another candidate in a fit of emotion rather than a rational choice that had a chance to win an election.

So the party invented the Super Delegate. Most of them are party officials, elected representatives (local, state, and federal) and past elected officials. For instance, how many of you know that Bill Clinton is a super delegate? Think Hillary will have to be calling him and offering him deals for his vote? ;)

Anyway, that is the system they set up. Every cycle, the Democratic National Committee sets down rules for how many delegates there will be, what each state gets, and who the super delegates are. It's been YEARS since we had a real contest that went to the convention (kinda ironic that the last one in the Democratic party was when Teddy Kennedy, in spite of lacking the votes, fought the incumbent Jimmy Carter right down to the convention. Some old Dem pols still hold a grudge against Teddy, saying that his primary challenge of Carter softened the Georgian up for Ronald Reagan...and now Teddy may be doing the same to Hillary. Some things never change)

If you have a Democrat congressman, he's probably a super delegate. He is beholden to NO ONE. He can choose whoever he likes. He can also change his mind at the drop of a hat.

The math is such that it is nearly 100 percent certain that Obama will have the most delegates going into the convention in Denver, but it is nowhere near certain that his total will be enough to win outright. Many delegates were chosen during the primaries/caucuses as "uncommitted" and some still belong to John Edwards, Bill Richardson, etc. We aren't talking many, here, but at this point, Puerto Rico and it's 60 plus delegates will be fought over tooth and nail this June.

So we may very well hear sordid stories of cars, jobs, real estate (remember Whitewater) and other things being rumored to have been offered to super delegates. All will be denied...which probably means that it's true. Or perhaps they will use their leverage to exact election promises from the candidates, like here.

Wow...am I cynical or what?

Hope this helps...this would be a great post to start a comment thread on if I still haven't made things clear or you just want to talk more about this. Have at it!

Coach

1 comment:

Jon Hinthorne said...

very helpful! Thank you for the history lesson. I am kicking myself for not reading your posts as often as I would like. maybe if I put it as my homepage. haha :)