A stunner in the Palmetto State

There will be extensive analysis of the political earthquake known as the Democratic Presidential Primary in South Carolina. One thing is certain: NO ONE FORESAW THIS.

Even Obama's people are stunned. The magnitude of the rejection of the Clinton campaign is massive and the punditry are already reading the pigs' entrails. The exit polling data is remarkable. Most expected Obama to win the state because of the massive African-American vote in the South Carolina Democrat Party. But Hillary lost the white vote to the combination of Obama and Edwards. That's incredible. Also, Obama won the 30 and under white vote heavily and Hillary ended up losing every county. Considering how much time her husband spent campaigning there for her, it was pretty amazing.

There will be no delegate-assigning contest until the all-important Super Tuesday of February 5th which will have primaries and caucuses in 21 states. But this landslide 28% point decision by the junior senator from Illinois has got to be disquieting for the Clinton campaign. Even the surviving Kennedy descendant has chosen tonight to throw her support behind Obama in an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times.

The contest in Florida this Tuesday will not have any delegates awarded as a penalty for Florida's Democratic Party state committee's violation of the earliest primary date set by the National Democratic Committee. This "beauty contest" might be significant if Obama can pull a close loss or even a small victory there. The demographics in Florida are quite different, but since Florida might see a lesser turnout because there was no campaigning allowed, the energy and enthusiasm of a candidate's supporters might lead to huge surprises; as we saw in South Carolina tonight. Florida's Democratic primary might have some drama after all...

Meanwhile, the Republican's had things to talk about as well. Florida's popular Republican governor Crist surprised many by endorsing John McCain. Crist had been resisting getting into the endorsement game, and the Giuliani campaign was led to believe that if he DID endorse anyone, it would be the former Mayor of New York City. Crist's action is seen as an attempt to lift McCain over Mitt Romney while stepping over the political corpse of the once "consensus frontrunner" Giuliani. Of such shallow friendships, political careers are often made and broken.

While celebrating this cherished endorsement, McCain was asked about his accusation that Mitt Romney had publically stated that he, Romney, was in favor of an announced withdrawal. When Romney's quotation in question was uncovered by reporters and Romney's campaign pointed out that the characterization was a gross misrepresentation, Romney's people demanded an apology from McCain.

McCain said he would give no such apology and that if any apology was owed, it was one Romney owed to the veterans and soldiers who were fighting for their country in Iraq. Even the New York Times, no fan of Romney (or in fact, of ANY Republican...and having just endorsed McCain a few days ago for the Republican nomination) pointed out the distortion of Romney's position.

This will not endear McCain to the conservative wing of the party which already does not trust him. Most believe he has focused too much on "getting along" with the Democrats instead of supporting the principles and leadership of the Republican party. Others see him as willing to distort the position of one of the rising mainstream conservatives in race in order to win. His attack on Romney's support for the War on Terror is a risky gambit.

A wise man of many political campaigns once said, "You don't change your strategy or message if your internal polling is tell you it's working. You only change it if your data says its not."

McCain is keeping his eye on the dissolution of Giuliani's base in Florida. By now, even those who aren't politically astute down there must be aware that Rudy's support is slipping.

If this is so, where will his supporters go?

We may find out Tuesday night...

Coach

Edit: Here's some of the front pages of the Sunday morning papers on the primary.