Sunday, January 20, 2008

The End Game begins

So it's only Nevada and South Carolina. Or is it.

Obama loses the vote, but wins more delegates. Who will be portrayed as the winner? Easy guess.

Meanwhile, Obama has begun to complain that the Clintons cheated. What? Obama accusing the Democrat power structure of not playing fair? This is the report we have of what will be in an interview on Good Morning America in just a few hours. So far, the only response has been from a Clinton spokesperson. In specific, Obama has been calling the former president out. Even more specifically, calling him a liar and saying they would call him on it in the future. All on Dr. King's observed birthday. Wow. How will the rank and file African-Americans, preparing to vote in Tuesday's crucial South Carolina primary, react?

In reality, this one is probably over. Even if Obama wins in SC Hillary will overwhelmingly win the beauty contest in Florida where polls say her transplanted NY base will give her a big win. (there will be no delegates awarded as a penalty for jumping the gun on the beginning of the primary season by the Democratic National Committee. Look for that to be restored later this year once Hillary has enough delegates to head to the convention as the ready to be crowned nominee.)

While some think this continuing civil war may bode ill for the Democrats in November, the Clintons know that there is no way this key voting bloc will ever vote Republican in our lifetime...or perhaps any other. Meanwhile, their smash-mouth tactics with lawsuits and "voter suppression" accusations are quickly earning them the fealty of the country's newest voting bloc --Latinos) Hillary overwhelmingly won the Latino vote in Nevada with her proclamation that "No woman is illegal." The Republican party is perceived by this new bloc as anti-Latino because of the party's general opposition to "open borders" and the Clintons will play this masterfully in the campaign this fall.

On the Republican side, Romney won handily in Nevada but it is being treated as an easy victory because the substantial Mormon population in Nevada voted 96% for the former governor of Massachusetts. His huge margin got "oh yea" play in the major media. All eyes were on South Carolina.

The pundits made much of the fact that a) the state had picked the eventual nominee of the party every year since 1980 and b) McCain was looking for redemption from the state's voters after South Carolina had basically ended his contest with George W. Bush for the nomination in 2000. A running sub-text in the evening was whether Fred Thompson could revive his flagging campaign with the first Southern contest of the season. Preacher Huckabee knew that he had a strong evangelical base to try and turn out in the western highlands of the Palmetto state, but McCain owned the coastal areas to win the day. Romney gave up the state in the last week to focus on getting the big win in Nevada.

The final tallys showed a victory for McCain and the media began to pronounce him the nominee apparent. While Florida's voice has yet to be heard, early polls show this is probably an accurate assessment of the race, and Fred's weak third place finish has him "Fred man walking."

So, after all the talk of "brokered conventions" and "uncivil wars" is it all over but the counting. If any primary season has thrown us surprises, it's been this one. But with the 20 states of Super Tuesday just 10 days away, and with the Clinton and McCain campaigns best set to exploit this, it may end with a whimper not a bang.

The one fly in the ointment could be a real nasty finger-pointing war as a result of Obama's accusatory statements, but the Clintons have been here before (Think how popular he was even after impeachment). If they think they have the Democratic base under control, look for Hillary to begin to ignore Obama more and more and focus her attacks on the unpopular president and the Republican party as rich elitists out of touch with the will of the people.

Coming soon to a TV screen near you....Clinton 1992/2008--"It's the economy again, stupid."

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