The race after Michigan

Four contests, three winners. That's where we stand in the Republican party. It was a true three-ring circus last night and a clear example of the quickly changing and vast country we live in today. Mike Huckabee and John McCain gave their concession speeches from South Carolina, having left by jet just hours before when exit polling data made clear that Romney was going to win the state by a significant margin.

Romney, of course, gave his victory speech near Detroit celebrating his win of the state where his father had been governor in the 1960s. As all the news networks were announcing his victory in Michigan, the Democrats were sitting down, literally, to a debate in Las Vegas. So while things were being wrapped up in Michigan, the battle was simultaneously being waged in the next two venues: South Carolina and Nevada.

So now we turn south and west at the same time: this Saturday the 19th. The Republicans will caucus in Nevada and vote in a primary in South Carolina...the first contest in the Republican base in the south. Where do things stand? You can find the polls as of today here and here. The media polls have been pretty inaccurate so far!

What of the Democrats? Nevada's uncivil war continues. The Teachers' Union, a stalking horse for the Clinton campaign, has continued it's lawsuit to move some caucus locations away from the Strip. It's too easy for Vegas casino workers, represented by the Obama-endorsing Culinary Union workers, to get to the caucuses and give victory to Obama's campaign. When questioned about the situation on a visit to Oakland today, President Clinton got in a little energetic discussion with a local report. You can see it here

Lost in all the shouting are the candidates hanging on for dear life. If Fred Thompson can't either win or come in a close second, it's back to Law and Order. Giuliani is on life support with all his chips on Florida. With such a longshot gamble Rudy perhaps should be campaigning in Las Vegas! Huckabee should do well with evangelicals in South Carolina. If he doesn't, it makes Iowa look more and more like a fluke. McCain was in a strong position when he entered South Carolina in 2000 then got smoked by George Bush and it was Bush's contest from there on. If Romney does well and McCain loses steam in SC, then all eyes will turn once again to Florida's winner take all primary on the 29th. The latest Florida numbers are here.

On the Democrat side, John Edwards has become little more than an "oh yea, Edwards" in polling and news coverage. If he bows out, will he give an endorsement? Will his people choose to go with the strong horse (Hillary) or the stop-Hillary candidate?

Meanwhile, Zogby's national poll, in the last few hours, has released a result that has Hillary and Obama tied. This is actually as worthless as winning the popular vote. Ask Al Gore. It's a state by state contest and no one knows this better than the Clintons. They have been carefully building state organizations while Bill was still in office in preparation for Hillary's run. They have no intention of letting this upstart derail her bid for the White House.

Super Tuesday is so-called because 20 states have their caucus or primary on that day: February 5th. Almost 40% of the delegates to the convention will be chosen that day, including important heavily populated states like California and New York. Both big states seem ripe for the picking by the junior senator from New York. Unless the young man from Illinois should surprise...in places like Nevada and South Carolina, thus building some momentum lost by his close defeat in New Hampshire. (Hillary seems safely ahead in Florida, packed as it is with former New York residents)

What she may fear even more is the fallout from any sense within the Democrat party that, as much as the Democrat faithful hate Republicans, the Clintons have somehow not played fair with the new political star of the party. It is unlikely that any of these disgruntled Obama supporters would choose the Republican nominee (perhaps excepting McCain) over Hillary. The biggest concern is not that your unhappy party supporters would vote for the opposing party nominee.

The Democrats should be more concerned that the Obama supporters would pout and stay home. This could give the election to the Republicans by default. The Clintons must be very careful to gingerly put down the Obama insurrection with kindness and conciliation or it may damage her chances in November.

Coach