Fans of Monty Python will recognize this quote from their scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. A small village is trying to get through the latest run of the Black Death and as the cart goes through the lanes, a local asks the man running the body cart if he can put someone on who is "not dead yet, but will be soon." Even though the person in question avers that he is "feeling much better" and begins to sing, the cart man helps his friend out by clubbing the old man and putting him on the cart because, after all the cart won't be back for several days.
Our national media is trying to portray the Republican Party as "dead man walking" and Senator Obama simply passing the time until he becomes President Obama. These are the same know-it-alls who were selling tickets to Hillary Clinton's inauguration in December. Their track record is not so good.
Where does the race stand today?
I told you to keep your eyes on where the candidates go. I also have talked before about watching what they say, and if it represents a change from their past positions. To a great extent, candidates must appeal to their party's base in a primary and to the great middle in the general election.
McCain was a bit unorthodox. He did NOT go after his party base in the primary. He largely was trying to appeal to independents and disgruntled Democrats and got enough cross-over votes to win the nomination in a relatively unexpectedly easy finish to the campaign.
Obama had to go a much more traditional route and had a much tougher go of it. Let's face it, it's harder to defeat the Clintons than it is to defeat Mitt Romney. Especially when you have Mike Huckabee running interference for you down south!
Now Obama is in the position of having to "modify" some of his stances. His attempts to morph his Iraq stance is the most obvious one. Fortunately, his legions of admirers will permit him to make these verbal changes if it helps him win the White House. It is earning him criticism even from staunch supporters like the editorial board of the New York Times.
Will it hurt his chances to win?
Those last Democratic primaries continue to haunt the Obama campaign. Can he win back the blue-collar Democrat voters in the Midwest? Some data suggests many of those votes were not for Hillary but more against Obama. How many fit this category? We don't know. But that will be key in November.
Polling data continues to suggest that the Midwest will be the deciding region, once again, in November. Keep an eye on Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Where are the candidates traveling? Recently, Obama has been in Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, North Dakota, Montana, and then back to DC. These are Red States. If he cannot make good progress in the polls there, after the convention, he will go back to the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.
He has to try to take some of these smaller Red states if he is going to offset potential losses in Ohio and Florida. The problem is, it takes a LOT of those tiny Red states to offset the electoral votes lost if you have to concede Florida and Ohio.
He'd better keep his eye on Pennsylvania...that would make it near impossible.
McCain has been reestablishing his "conservative" bona fides in Red and "purple" states like Nevada, Ohio, and Indiana, but then he does some strange things. He goes to California (not a chance) Pennsylvania (should worry Obama) and then this strange little episode in Mexico. That is a pure play for the Latino vote, and after the hard feelings from the campaign with Hillary (who dominated the Latino vote) Obama should worry about that. Obama's response was to have a fundraiser in Miami. Not quite the same demographic, Barack. Most of those former Cubans are hard-core Republicans who still hate Fidel.
Keep an eye on these guys. Remember, the media created polls are worthless. The campaign polls are very good, and probably tell each other the same things. It is also driving their visits. If the visits result in better polling in that state, they will go back there over and over. Until the results stop improving; then they will go somewhere else. At the end of the campaign, it may simply be the result of "well if we don't win this state, it's over." That why John Kerry spent almost all of the month of October in Ohio, and outspent Bush 3-1 there. It didn't work.
Which brings up the subject of money. Is it the difference maker? Can be. It can also backfire. Obama outspent Hillary in Pennsylvania 3-1. She beat him solidly when polls showed him with a slight lead. Many feel that if he had put more of that money towards "walking around money" in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's heavily black inner city boroughs that he could have made it much closer. He chose not to. Big mistake.
He also heavily outspent her in West Virginia and lost by 40 points. In that state, there is reason to believe that the overkill from too many media buys made the loss worse. So money is not the cure for negative voter attitudes, but it can kill a campaign if you don't have enough. Consider campaign money to be like oxygen: you need it to stay alive but you don't want to hyperventilate!
I will be traveling next week, a little history vacation in preparation for my summer adult education courses on both Benjamin Franklin and the US Civil War. I am looking forward to revisiting Gettysburg, Philadelphia, and Mount Vernon. And I will be seeing Williamsburg and the Antietam battlefield for the first time. I will try to post at some point.
Have some great summer fun and a belated happy Fourth of July!
On that note, I strongly encourage you to read Victor Davis Hanson's latest post on what makes America so incredible. You who read this little blog know how much I treasure Professor Hanson's thoughts. This one is a real keeper.
Coach
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