Where things stand now...

Iowa is behind us...New Hampshire up next.

The candidates squared off in one of the best debate formats this year. Having them sit down and be able to reply to each other is so much better than the moderator controlled formats we have seen so far. Those other debates seemed more like a "College Bowl/Jeopardy" type of contest. It's good to see the candidates more "unplugged" from talking points. That's how the winner will govern...out of sight of the electorate in the Oval Office. Shouldn't we be able to get a better look at who they are, not what some YouTube commercial puts out? Meanwhile, Obama's people have put out an impressive response to Senator Clinton's candidacy with an adaptation of Apple's famous 1984 commercial. Powerful stuff...and it's this kind of "insurgent" theme along with Obama's eloquent delivery of his message that is making him such a strong draw to a jaded electorate.

The Republicans look like this could be a long drawn out bloody battle. Some are talking about a "brokerered convention." That's how they all used to be before the primary system basically chose the nominees. Dick Morris, the man who helped guide the Clintons through the Monica Lewinsky challenge, has a very concise analysis of the outlook here. I think it's a generally accurate assessment of where we are at this moment. I'm not convinced that a brokered convention will happen. Some candidates may have to drop out months before the convention if they run out of money.(Thompson, Huckabee) But if several candidates win different primaries, it could happen.

McCain looks to be the leader going into New Hampshire, with Romney, from next door Massachusetts, close behind. Frankly, Romney either needs a win or a close second or the money will begin to dry up and he will have to decide whether to tap into his vast fortune.

Giuliani has got to be nervous about his strategy to forgo the early primaries and focus on the later but more delegate-rich states such as Florida and California. Certainly the rise of Huckabee is better for him than Romney or McCain. It keeps anyone else from grabbing big momentum as Giuliani hopes the non-evangelical Republicans in the aforementioned big states will turn to him as the "anti-Huckabee" candidate.

And why are Republicans looking for an "anti-Huckabee" nominee? Most members of the elephant party realize that a Huckabee candidacy is a recipe for a McGovern-like drubbing for the GOP. Democrat operatives are slathering at the chance to win back the White House and enlarge their congressional majorities that this kind of blood-letting would visit upon the Republicans.

The Republicans enter this election in big trouble. The party is short on attractive candidates (twice as many Democrats as Republicans turned out for the Iowa caucuses..and Bush took this state in 2004), and Americans usually want to change the party in power in the White House after a two-term presidency unless the departing president is popular. This departing president is not.

The Democrats have their own problems. Mrs. Inevitability took a big hit with her third place finish in Iowa. While she has the little-known benefit of the Super Delegates on her side (most party operatives committed to her early in 2007). To understand the concept of the Super Delegates, read this article by the editor of The Nation. The Nation is to liberals what National Review is to conservatives, so this kind of alarm about the system the Democrats are using is coming from their own constituency.

If Obama keeps winning but Hillary prevails at the convention because of the Clinton's control of the party machinery...well, it wouldn't make for a pretty Democratic Convention. Senator Clinton's strategy, as shown in last night's debate, was to attack Obama. Even the foreign press, who usually prefer the Clintons, were put off by the approach.

Obama's message has caught fire with not just Democrats but many independent voters as well. Legions of young people have put their energies into his campaign. If he keeps winning these primaries, look to the South Carolina primary to see if southern blacks will switch their allegiance to Obama instead of the Clintons. So far, the Clintons have gotten almost all the support from the black leadership (thus the unusual involvement of Oprah being such big news). Will the rank and file black voter go along? Or will they see Obama's success in such unlikely (read "few black voters") places like Iowa and now possibly New Hampshire as a sign that the time is now for the first black president?

This will be an election like no other. And for a political junkie like me, it promises to be a fascinating year!