The dog days of August

Hi gang! I hope summer is going well for those who enjoy reading this blog. I recently finished my summer adult ed classes so I hope to be more up to date with the blog!

A quick look at the state of the presidential election...

Things have tightened up quite a bit since mid-July. Most polls have the race between a slight Obama lead and a tie. One USA Today poll of likely voters had McCain ahead but for now, we will consider that an outlier since no one else seems to have any results close to it. An outlier is when your polling data somehow falls outside of the statistical margin of error. Weird things can happen with polling, since all it is is an estimate of where public opinion stands at any point in time with a specific population.

But there is little doubt that the comfortable lead Obama once had nationally is gone an it is looking like the close contests we have had in this decade. So where does it stand right now?

On a state by state basis, Obama still looks to be ahead. This is to be expected because this is the peak of the 16 year presidential election cycle that has held true for most of the past century. The only break in that cycle was the special circumstance that led FDR to win 4 elections, followed by Truman's victory. 16 years ago...Bill Clinton...16 years earlier...Jimmy Carter...16 years previous...JFK.It's not perfect, but it certainly fits in well with the rise of the independent voter as party loyalties continue to decline.

After GW Bush benefited from the mid-cycle Republican peak in 2000, it would naturally turn to the Democrats to benefit. This is mainly resulting from the tendency of "independents" to favor one party for 8 years, and then vote differently because it's now "time for the other party to see what it can do." Independents are different kinds of voters than party loyalists; they vote based on what the candidate will most do for "me." After 8 years of Bush and the Republicans, independents would naturally turn to the Democrats to see what they will do for "them." They began this process by electing a Democratic congress in 2006. That has, however, led to a congress with the lowest national approval polling numbers ever.

With the strong national awareness of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as the nation's first woman Speaker of the House, much of the unhappiness about the Congress' latest term might be laid at their feet. Will the 16 year cycle bail them out? Perhaps. But Pelosi and her Democratic party-run Congress are in big trouble with the American people.

Remember how in past posts, I have talked about watching what politicians do more than what they say? When the Democrats rammed through an adjournment for their 5 week summer break last Friday, they succeeded by only one vote and with howls from the Republican House members who wanted a vote on an energy bill that included a removal of the Congressional ban on offshore drilling for US oil companies. Pelosi's answer was that she was "trying to save the planet" but Americans are a basically fair people and they don't like the idea of preventing congressmen from at least debating and then voting on an oil drilling bill when gasoline is at $4 a gallon.

After the adjournment, the Republican house members took to the floor to speak out against these strong-arm tactics, as the Speaker's office mandated the cutoff of CSPAN cameras and the microphones and lights were turned off. This was a major publicity coup for the demoralized Republican members of the house who believe that they have been handed a popular issue that cuts across party lines: gas prices.

What has happened since then? The Republicans continue to show up there every day in the House and speak, even though the mikes and cameras remain off. It's great theater for the large crowds of American vacationers who had expected nothing but empty chambers in the nation's Capitol. What good does this do them?

1) It builds their image of "the party looking out for YOU", and presents the Democrats as the party out playing golf, raising money, and riding in limos, and trying to hype a poorly selling book that has been getting more than it's fair share of spoofing here and here.. It doesn't matter if that is true or not, it plays well. The lack of media coverage is less of a problem in the day of the "new media". Cell phone movies of Republicans calling for congress to come back in session and vote on the drilling bill have been shown on Fox News Channel, web sites, and will continue for the summer. Expect to have those emailed to you all summer.

2) The Republicans must be seeing polling data showing it has hit a chord with the nation, or they would have stopped after the weekend. They are energized as they see the Speaker has put her party in a difficult bind. The longer gas prices stay high, the greater the effect this could have in polling data and in fund raising for a party that has been getting told "NO" by a lot of the donors who helped Bush win re-election. They may not like McCain that much but they would LOVE to return Pelosi to Minority leader. This is still unlikely...but if trends stay strong for a while, it's not unthinkable.

3)The Democrats won their "landslide" congressional victory in 2006 with a number of 53-47 wins. Not many "independents" will have to switch their votes in order for the House up for grabs once again. This would be the Democrats worst nightmare.

Add to that the challenge facing Obama lately, and you can see why the Democrats are getting more nervous every day as we approach the time for the party convention in Denver. Obama is heading to Hawaii for some R & R, but in reality, this is the perfect time to do this as Americans start to tune out politics for a short while and focus on the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Both candidates have bought $5-6 million in advertising in the games. Watch what each choose to show in this prime visibility offering. If they stay with the same theme...or, more importantly, take a different direction, that will be significant.

Obama has much to be worried about of late. Remember that it is a 51 state election, and some very important states are either falling out of his reach or suddenly in play. For example, check out these latest polls from Massachusetts, Oregon, Florida, and Wisconsin(which should be an Obama runaway), just for a few. He is accusing McCain of being in the pocket of Big Oil, but actual campaign contributions paint a very different picture of just who is getting money from "Big Oil." MoveOn.org is planning a number of ads attacking Republicans on the oil issue but even top Obama supporters are concerned that they may backfire on the presumptive nominee.

And Hillary Clinton is waiting in the wings. He is NOT the nominee yet. If just 120 odd superdelegates decide to either switch or abstain on the first ballot, then all bets are off because most committed delegates are free to vote their conscience after the first ballot. Hillary is quietly letting them know that she is still there and can BEAT McCain. She is being very demure about perhaps wanting her name placed in nomination. And Obama has shown his overconfidence by doing what I said he would do someday: argued that all the delegates from Florida and Michigan to have their full representation. She's has to be THRILLED at that...it makes the number needed to cause a second ballot even smaller. Bad move, Barack...fair, but you are up against the Clintons.

And what did Bill mean the other day, when asked about supporting Obama for the nomination that he was "I think everybody's got a right to run for President who qualifies under the Constitution." For the man who wanted to be sure everyone agreed on what the definition of "'is' is", this is a curious statement. Many bloggers are digging into Obama's past wondering why they have been unable to find his birth certificate. Some suspect it's just an "embarrassing" name change, (Indonesian stepfather Lolo Soetolo?) but some question if he was born in the USA. Personally, I think this is garbage, but on the other hand, it's just the kind of thing the Clintons have been known to release as we get close to a big decision in order to "muddy the waters." If a major news outlet deals with this kind of story right before Denver...well, think about "cui bono"...who benefits.

To be sure, with the 16 year presidential cycle at his back, he is still the favorite, even though I would personally not bet on him at this point (Dukakis was ahead of GHW Bush by 13 at this point). A certain amount of "Obama fatigue" is setting in as it seems obvious to many Americans that the press favors him. People are starting to speculate about his short resume...and finding it wanting. He needs to stop making off-hand stumbles like this, this, this, and the symbol at the start of this blogpost.

Meanwhile, Old Tortoise McCain gets the right kind of "regular guy" visibility that are making Joe Six-Pack think about voting Republican for the first time in his life.

McCain survived the Hanoi Hilton...he can certainly take on Barack Obama.

What does a girl have to do to get noticed?

Poor Hillary. All you have to do is read this article from the Politico to see her problem. She wins West Virginia by 41% and the media yawns.

Ok, so it's only a few delegates.

And it's heavy in that demographic group that I have been talking about for weeks that Obama has a real problem with.

But seriously folks...Obama only beat John Edwards by 20% and Edwards quit in February.

I still expect superdelegates to choose Obama, and I still expect him to be the nominee in spite of this ominous warning from an important Democratic group.

There is no joy in Elephantland either. They got whacked again in a special election in a conservative southern congressional district, this one in Mississippi. While it was close, the fact is that the Republican base is mad as he** and is taking their ball (and their significant $$ donations) and are staying home.

This could be a real wild one this November.

More later,

Coach

Country roads, take me home

Is this the last trail for the Hillary White House express?

West Virginia casts its votes in the Democratic Presidential Primary marathon today. Of course, it may be easier to find an African-American in Iceland than in the Mountaineer state (only 3.3% of the population) so Hillary should have one last big night as this thing winds down towards it's inevitable conclusion. It's sad that race keeps coming up as a deciding factor in this contest. I suppose this years election will be dissected for years on that subject alone. I would expect that Obama has some big time superdelegates set to announce in the wake of this big victory in order to give the mainstream media a chance to stay focused on his inevitability as the Democrat Party nominee.

This is coming at a time when we once again see that the electorate is disgruntled with the current administration and there is little doubt that the war in Iraq and the price at the pump has a lot to do with that.

Once you factor all that in, it is not only amazing but instructive that most polling data still shows John McCain either competitive or the front-runner for the fall election. How can this be?

Perhaps it is because of the actual choices: a generic Democrat would win heavily, but given the two alternatives to McCain, he remains preferable to many who would otherwise pull the lever for a Democrat.

What happens next? It's likely that next Tuesday's contests in Kentucky and Oregon are a split decision like last weeks contests in Indiana and North Carolina. At this point, Hillary may be doing little more than negotiating for the DNC or the Obama donors to pay off her sizable campaign debt.

Otherwise, she may be simply waiting and hoping for some fortuitous Reverend Wright-type of revelation or an Obama campaign fluff to cast further doubt on his viability in the minds of superdelegates.

But all you have to do is quietly talk to Democrat party operatives in places like Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Michigan to know that Obama has a formidable challenge ahead of him to win that oft-cited white working class vote. And he won't be able to win them by whining about Republicans "trying to use the same distractions" as in the past. That may play well with his current voters; not with the ones he needs to win over for November.

In that vein, consider this: No Democrat has won the general election without also winning the West Virginia primary since Woodrow Wilson in 1912. Can Obama break that streak?

Coach

Force Quit

Every once in a while, my computer freezes up. My techie son long ago showed me how to go into Windows task manager to try to shut down the offending program. When that little piece of strong persuasion doesn't work, then I do a force quit: I turn off the power. I know I shouldn't...that kind of "termination with extreme prejudice" can have dire consequences down the road, but I get impatient for the program to shut down and kind of take a "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" attitude and pray it doesn't give me the "blue screen of death" someday when I try to reboot my computer.

That's what happened to Hillary Clinton last night.

It was clear for sometime that Obama would win North Carolina big. Over 33% of the Democrat party vote in the state was African-American and it is becoming a crusade for that powerful demographic group to both vote for Obama and put the Clintons in their place. Barack got almost 94% of the black vote in the Tarheel state. He also did almost 2-1 over Hillary in the Research Triangle amongst white educated voters and the college group put their studying for finals on hold to go cast their votes for Obama.

What happened in Indiana was different, though. The Clintons have risen to the heights of American politics using old-style smash mouth Democratic party tactics. Last night, the party put a force quit on them. I suppose I began to suspect something when certain counties were slow coming in, particularly Lake County, which holds Gary. Gary is a de facto suburb of Chicago, and Chicago..well, Chicago is Obama country. The mayor of Gary promised a surprise, and since he is also the county Democratic Party chairman, he was able to "deliver". There is no surprise that you would see that area go heavily for Obama, but it's the way it happened that raised many eyebrows last night, and the silence from the DNC on last night's events is deafening.

Here's the way it works:

The precinct captain knows how many people have voted and how many have not. His precinct is almost all Democrat, you can't even find a Republican who would be willing to serve as a poll-watcher in many of those inner city polling stations. When the Democratic state officials calls in to the precinct to find out how the voting is going, the precinct captain asks "how many do you need?" With the new "early voting" that goes on in most states these days, it's no problem, and not unusual, when suddenly a new batch of "absentee ballots" is dumped on the table to be tabulated. Of course, they are almost all for the Democratic candidate, (in this case, the RIGHT Democratic candidate) and they must be carefully counted...and this takes time.

All last night, the results from Lake County dribble in...and were overwhelmingly for Obama, gradually drawing down Hillary's margin of victory so that it became so small that Obama will probably end up with as many delegates from Indiana as she will. This could not have happened without the acquiescence of DNC higher-ups. This is how Richard Daley secured Illinois for JFK. It's one of those dirty little secrets in Midwestern politics. Someone with longtime experience in these matters in this area writes on it here. If you are dubious about my conjecture here, I encourage you to click on some of the links I have put in this text. There is little fear that this will be exposed because it is a primary, and most people in the political chattering class will consider it an "internal matter" relating to Democrat party machinations. It's actually kind of alarming to see this so clearly exposed in this matter because it's the kind of tactic you hold back for something important...like the general election.

Many speculate that this was a tactic that the Democrat party was going to unleash on George W. Bush in Ohio in 2004. The Bush people (read Karl Rove) were aware of this little midwestern tradition and had dispatched dozens of RNC paid lawyers, particularly to Cuyahoga County. This inner city section of Cleveland was where Democrats had always looked for big margins to offset Republican strength in the outlying areas of Ohio. No one went to bed before Cuyahoga was counted. But in 2004 those RNC lawyers were ready to challenge any curiously discovered ballots. The Bush people had seen this tactic in Dade and Broward County in 2000. Without some "late" found ballots there, the Florida recount would not have been necessary: Bush was ready to declare victory and Gore was ready to concede. Until Gore was advised to seek a recount...by his Mayor Daley's son, Richie Daley. Nobody on the Republican side missed the irony of Daley's statement, made that night, that "every Florida vote should be counted." A former GOP Ohio official I have gotten to know posts more about this tactic here.

Bush fought back at what he saw as a naked attempt to steal Florida by the old "sudden" batch method of voter fraud. Most books recounting that election accuse the Bush people of stealing 2000 through the court system, or that the Electoral College is unfair because it gave the victory to a man who lost the popular vote. Little has been said about the "irregularities" in the votes leading up to the great Recount Drama. When investigations of the areas with questionable matching up of votes with voter records over and over showed that the suspect areas were in the inner cities, the civil rights leadership yelled about prejudice and disenfranchisement of black voters. Bush has paid the price with Democrat voters to this very day: it was a costly victory in terms of his perception by the voting public, that he was somehow an illegitimate victor when the truth was that he believed he was trying to keep the other side from stealing it away. How ironic.

More ironic is that the tactic was now used on the Democrat president who he succeeded. The DNC decided weeks ago that the ongoing Democrat civil war was caustic to it's chances in the fall general election. The Clintons refused to go quietly so a "force quit" was the only choice left. Now, the party will be brutal to it's former fair-haired boy and his wife. Superdelegates will declared for Obama every day for the next several weeks. It will be choreographed like a funeral dirge for the Clintons. Her money will dry up (she is already loaning herself more). Even those she should win the next few primaries in West Virginia and Kentucky by large margins, she is a dead candidate walking. She will be told by the DNC Borg that "resistance is futile", and that if there is a McCain victory, she will get NO help from the DNC or it's money machine in 2012.

You will now see a ton of media death pronouncements of the Hillary campaign like here, here, and here.

What this does NOT fix is the racial makeup of the Obama support in the Democrat party and the number of white voters who vow that they will either vote McCain in the fall or sit this one out. In the past, the party has unified to support the candidate in spite of the bitterness of the primary contests. Will this happen this year? The DNC is nervous about this one and you can bet that there will be HEAVY pressure on union leaders to bring their rank and file around by November. Time will tell, but there are media concerns about what the numbers show about this problem here, here, here, here, and here.

What's also amazing, is the number of media outlets who have suddenly discovered Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" attempt to keep her in the race to beat up on Obama now that the Obama campaign has raised it as the only reason Barack did not win Indiana as well. Even Germany picked up on this story. You can read those here, here, here, and here.

The DNC got what it wanted, and now can go back to it's full time occupation, along with an Obama-adoring media: beating up on the Republicans. The Republicans are finally waking up to what kind of a dire future they face in November. The sacrifice of the former Democrat standard bearer was worth what the Democrats could reap in the fall election.

In a way, it's kind of sad to see the Clintons go out this way. But as the old saying goes, "live by the sword, die by the sword." Right now, the Clintons are looking at so many of their former administration and DNC friends, saying "Et tu, Brute?"

Coach

PS...The Clinton campaign is claiming it will fight on, and Hillary is loaning herself more money...Good thing she can, I think her outside funding is about to dry up.

Schizophrenic Tuesday

Another Tuesday, another big primary for the Democrats. Indiana and North Carolina hold their time in the spotlight tomorrow in two very different demographic groups for the two candidates.

North Carolina would normally have promised to be another repeat of past southern stompings administered to Hillary by Obama. Mostly because of the heavy African-American makeup of the Democratic party primary voters in the south, Obama has swept to big double-digit victories in Dixie. Will that repeat itself tomorrow?

Since the last victory, Mississippi, we have had the Reverend Wright connection addressed in two major Obama speeches, the "bitter and gun-clinging" episode in San Francisco, and Obama's off-hand remark about "typical white person" referring to his grandmother. Will this motivate southern whites to back Hillary by bigger numbers and offset some of Obama's votes in the black community? Will it encourage Republicans to take this chance to affect the Democratic nominating process as they seem to have done in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

In the Hoosier state, it should have been a solid win for the Clintons. Home state senator Evan Bayh, a member of one of Indiana's most storied political families, is working hard for Mrs. Clinton. Whispers continue that, if she is successful in the winning the nomination, he is on her short list to be her veep nominee. Obama has made Indiana's outcome uncertain because of the strength of the black vote in Indianapolis and the northwestern corner of the state; a de facto suburb of Chicago and Obama's home state of Illinois.

The most likely scenario is that tomorrow's contests will be a split decision. And if so, not much would change. But what path is it that would "remain unchanged?" A brokered convention? Howard Dean forcing a June ending to the blood-letting? Clinton Inc.'s scorched earth pursuit of the nomination?

Most experts seem agreed that if Obama were to win both primaries, the pressure on Hillary to withdraw could be unbearable. But what if she were to win both, or, more likely, win Indiana and come very close in North Carolina?

John McCain campaigned in New Orleans last week, continuing his "I'm not George Bush" tour of places where Bush dare not go. While there, he met with one of the few bright future stars of the Republican party. And, perhaps, his vice-presidential nominee?

I still believe that the Democrat party hierarchy have decided that Obama must be chosen in order to preserve the New Deal coalition that has kept the Democrats in control of Congress for most years since the Great Depression. They know that only the near unanimous support for the party's candidates over the last 40 years by African-American voters has kept them from being in the wilderness during the Nixon-Reagan presidencies. Without their support, they could never have regained control of Congress in 2006...and seem destined to enlarge those majorities this year...

...unless black voters were to stay home because Obama had been "cheated" out of the nomination by Clinton machinations. And the Clintons could only pull this fat out of the fire if the party higher-ups acquiesced.

But what do the voters think?

We are about to find out...

Coach

The night after...

So...what was settled?

1) No matter what happens from here on out, Hillary is in through the convention. She will never drop out now, and is looking to put more pressure on the freshman senator, perhaps hoping for another major gaffe or revelation.

2) She has won the primaries in most of the large population states. Only the ones without an asterisk were won by Obama. Illinois is, of course, his home state. And the margin there represents most of his popular vote edge over her. He will probably win North Carolina, which is #12...but both Georgia and North Carolina are red states. McCain should win them handily.

Pennsylvania *
California *
Texas *
Ohio *
Illinois
New York *
Florida *
Massachusetts *
Wisconsin
New Jersey *
Georgia
Michigan *

Remember that presently the rules of the convention are to deny any representation from Michigan and Florida. Regardless of how they do it, the Democrats will have to allow some kind of delegation from those states. They will have to have her delegates in majority, especially Florida where she won in a huge landslide. It won't give her the nomination, but it will make things more interesting.

3) Indiana and North Carolina are up on May 6. Obama should win with the heavy black population in the Democratic party in North Carolina, and the heavy numbers of academia and college youth in the universities will boost his margin. Indiana is more problematic for him.

Indianapolis should go for Obama, but the margin there, and in Gary (a near suburb of Chicago) may not offset the small towns and cities of Indiana. There, the blue collar workers of the auto parts and assembly industries should favor Clinton as they did in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

In the end, I would expect the same kind of result in Indiana as we saw in those two states, in the neighborhood of a 6-10% Clinton win.

The problem for the Democrats is that Obama has won a large part of his delegates in states that McCain will probably win in November. Hillary has won the contests in the states that a Democrat MUST win in order to be elected.

What happens now? It goes on...Hillary will win a big victory in West Virginia on May 13th. They will split Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th; Hillary will win KY big, Obama comfortably in Oregon. Puerto Rico should go for Hillary on June 1 and Obama should take both South Dakota and Montana on June 3...but again, those are both red states...and Puerto Rico can't even vote in the US general election. What a mess.

You couldn't pay me enough to be Howard Dean.

How are things going on the Republican side? All McCain has to do is stay clean and keep defining who he is...while they are distracted, the Democrats can't spend much time trying to define him as "McSame" or "Bush III". He won't raise as much money as the two Democrats over the next few months...but then, he doesn't need to. He's done. This is an excellent analysis of the situation as it is now, and the author, Ed Morrissey, cites Karl Rove's perceptive analysis of the race. Even if you think you hate Karl Rove, I suggest you click that link. He may be partisan, but he's also a good political analyst. Ignore him at your own peril. By the way, I would say that about people like James Carville or Pat Caddell (former managers of Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) as well.

Obama and Clinton are still raising money like crazy. Hillary claims to have raised $10 million in the 24 hours after Tuesday. They both are still spending like drunken sailors. Obama outspent Hillary 3-1 to lose in Pennsylvania. He spent $10 million there but it seems his earlier mentioned reticence to pay "walking around money" cut down his margin in Philadelphia and cost him at least a close loss.

The superdelegates are in a real crunch. What do they do? THEY WILL be determining this nomination. IF they choose her, the African-American vote may decide to riot in Denver (Sharpton is already promising this) and stay home in the fall. If they stay home, they may make any Hillary loss even worse...but, more disastrously, that lack of straight ticket Democrat voting from the inner city black voter could cost the party several close elections in the House and Senate. This is a nightmare for Pelosi and Reid.

If they choose Obama, you may not only continue to lose Ohio and Florida, as you did in 2000 and 2004, but you may lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Minnesota...heck, polls show it may even put liberal bastion Massachusetts in play.

McCain has played this right going back to 2000. He has kept his eye on two strategies...stay left of Bush(it remains to see how well that holds up over the campaign)...and court Latino voters with his stance on immigration. Except for the war, McCain has taken stances more moderate than the conservative base of the Republican party.

With the continuing civil war going on in the Democratic party, he may have himself right where he wants to be.

A lot can happen in just a few months...a few months ago, Hillary was the nominee waiting to be coronated...Mitt Romney's money was going to buy him the nomination...St. Rudy of 9/11 was the leader in all the polls...and Iraq was going to guarantee a Republican loss as Congress waited for the testimony of "General Betrayus". Iraq could actually end up being a plus for McCain.

A lot can still happen with six months to go...Events could swing towards the Democrats and lead to the landslide that everyone thought was inevitable last year...but at this point...I would rather be John McCain than either of the two Democrats.

Whoda thunk?

Deja Vu, all over again

The title of this latest post is one of those fun malapropisms attributed to New York Yankee catcher Yogi Berra. Who knows if he really said it, but it sounds plausible.

And so is the ongoing struggle for the Democrat party presidential nomination. It's deja vu, all over again. Is it 1972 or 1912? In 1972, the Democrat party picked the most liberal presidential candidate, one who was in favor of immediate withdrawal from an unpopular war, and lost in a massive landslide. The difference is that he was running against an incumbent president. In 1912, a bitter fight for the Republican nomination went down to a fight over credentials for delegates that came from a former president wanting to recapture the mantle of his party. Teddy Roosevelt had been one of the most popular presidents in US history and he wasn't pleased with how his hand-picked successor, William Howard Taft, had purged many of his ideas and supporters. TR caused a civil war within the party and after Taft's people had shut out most of Roosevelt's delegates, the bombastic former president went across the street and started his own third party: The Progressive Party. Asked if he was healthy enough to handle the brutal campaign ahead, Teddy announced confidently, "I feel as strong as a bull moose." Today, we know the most successful third party campaign as the time of the Bull Moose party. Roosevelt got second in the election, but he split the Republican vote and gave the election to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.

Will the current civil war within the Democrat party give the White House to John McCain? It's hard to say at this moment, but it appears that the longer this goes on, the more repair work that will need to be done in the fall. It seems every day we see articles like this from former defenders of the Clintons who are now deriding her for staying in the race. "Kamikaze?" Ouch. Meanwhile, Hillary is doing her best to scuttle her own chances in the last several days. Most are aware of the Bosnian phantom sniper fire snafu, but when you fire your main campaign advisor, or your husband, the former president, is reported to have blown a gasket in front of uncommitted superdelegates...well...it makes the "more experienced" candidate look like she is crumbling under pressure. None of this inspires confidence in the party as they look at a process which seems to be permitting the unlikely...a return of a Republican to the White House in the wake of an unpopular Republican incumbent.

Some analysts suggest that the process is faulty, and some suggest that if it were run like our general election, Hillary would already be the nominee. Not all Republicans think this scenario will help McCain. Some see President Obama in the future, but others realize that the Rev. Wright affair is likely to have a long-term effect on Obama's appeal to white voters; not because of racial problems, but patriotism questions. Expect that flag lapel pin issue and national anthem photos to revive in millions of emails.

So many areas are still to play out for an American electorate that is more focused on a possible recession than the November election. It's we political junkies who focus on all this minutiae in April.

On the actual issues front, high drama is coming into the campaign as General Petraeus returns for his next congressionally-mandated report to Congress on the progress of the surge. In spite of the recent flare-up in Basra, he is expected to have pretty good news.
In some ways, Basra makes the case for rejecting the Clinton/Obama calls for prompt withdrawal after the election. Many argue that Britain's premature withdrawal from Iraq's second largest city encouraged Sadr's power play there and that while Iraqi military prowess is improving, US military help to keep the local militias under control is still necessary. The Maliki government continues to get low marks from Democrats for it's slow political reform progress, but can we really say that the Democrat congress should be a model for the Iraqis? Recent approval numbers for the Pelosi/Reid congress might suggest otherwise. Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham give a bi-partisan response to Democrat leadership statements on the situation in Iraq. Look for McCain to lead the way in allowing Petraeus to make the case for improvement in Iraq; his success in the election may depend on it.

Finally, what do we make of speculation surrounding McCain's possible Veep nominee. McCain's age will continue to be a subject of concern for voters this fall, so his selection will have more of an impact than the Democrat nominee. The latest trial balloon seems to be Condi Rice. While it's possible that is true, I think it would be a mistake. Not that Condi wouldn't make a good veep...or even president, for that matter. I am really not sure. But it drags down the McCain campaign in two ways: She is a major player in an unpopular administration that the Democrats will try to tie McCain to...don't help them. Also, it will look like racial/gender pandering. It's bad enough to get an overdose of identity politics from the Democrats. This will look like a weak "we like women and black too" ploy by McCain. I hope he doesn't do it. It's too bad; I think Condi is good, but the timing is not right.

Finally, keep your eye on the main states. Remember that we do not truly have a national election: we have 51. (Don't forget DC gets 3 electoral votes) McCain is doing better than Obama in the major states, mainly because of the white vote and the Rev. Wright damage. This may get worse unless peace breaks out in the Democrat party soon.

Who could have foreseen this four months ago? Who knows what we will be talking about in 6 months!

Coach

A marathon, not a sprint

It's been a long weekend for political junkies like me. Lots to talk about. Let's get started.

This time, we shall start with the Republicans. Many are very upset with John McCain's latest speech, sounding like he is distancing himself from President Bush. No one should be surprised, once he is focused on a Democrat opponent a McCain presidency will be portrayed as the Bush 3rd term. McCain will get increasingly harsh press treatment over the next several months as the mainstream media fears that he could actually win. Look for them to focus on the Keating 5 investigation of the early 1990s, Cindy McCain's bout with prescription drug addiction and her stealing of some of those drugs from her own medical charity. And of course there is McCain's divorce of his disabled wife after his return from a North Vietnamese prison. Finally, there will be the out of context quote that "we could be in Iraq for another 100 years", knowing full well that he meant bases. After all, we still have bases in Japan and Germany...and WWII has been over for over 60 years now.

Meanwhile, two Democrat candidates continue to poke and push at each other. Hillary has filed to allow the delegates from Florida and Michigan to be seated. She's beginning to hurt from money problems again and insists on staying in it through the Denver convention. Either she is in denial, bent on the destruction of her party, incapable of doing the math...or she knows there are yet other shoes to be dropped on Obama. Will her people be doing the dropping? Obama is trying to remain magnanimous and says she has the right to stay in. Or perhaps, he's just realistic. Party insiders are beginning to wonder if perhaps Al Gore can be drafted in Denver. Stay tuned.

Finally, Obama, after his short vacation in the Caribbean, is touring Pennsylvania. Will working-class whites give him the vote? Has the Reverend Wright issue dissolved? It's interesting to see him reach for the center. He gave an interview to Maria Bartaromo of the CNBC financial network and scared investors by suggesting that he would raise capital gains rates. His wife has become a very popular figure on the campaign trail, but how will she play with independents? And Obama himself is suggesting that he will handle foreign affairs...like those two great "Democrat" presidents...Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush. HUH? Not sure how to read that one.

A side note...the passing of Dith Pran reminded us all of the nature of despotic regimes and the reality of genocide in today's world and how only a nation like the US can truly get involved in stopping atrocities like the Cambodian killing fields. An outstanding film was made about Pran's life and escape from Cambodia that is worth a rental but only for those who can handle such an overwhelmingly realistic portrayal of the evil of those who would kill people who had committed the sin of becoming educated and thinking for themselves. This was the strongest example of why worldwide communism had to be defeated. With the shutdown of a website hosting a Dutch film on the horrors of modern Islamic Jihad, the song sounds disturbingly familiar. Is Islamic fundamentalism the new "Evil Empire?"

Coach

silent no longer

I'm sure readers out there have been wondering when I would get back from break and write about the hubbub that has been going on in politics the last week or so. Boy, take off for a few days and the political world goes nuts!

I think I will only make a quick statement about Eliot Spitzer. Why did Bill Clinton survive his lady problem and Spitzer did not? You gotta have supporters in politics to survive a scandal. Spitzer learned that NOBODY liked him. Now he has to face the music at home, and he will have to rethink the decisions he made within the context of the the public trust he had been given and the laws he was supposed to enforce. These are the consequences he will be contemplating for years to come.

Now to the issue at hand. Actually, I came home several days ago. I wrote different drafts on the "Obama/preacher/race" issue at hand. I kept deciding not to post them. Why? Ah...good question, and it goes to the heart of what Obama chose not to acknowledge.

No one would question that today's society in these United States remains more divided along racial lines than it should. Of course, that has always fallen to the default position that once again the white-majority power base is not doing either enough or the right thing to fix this aged wound. My drafts were arguments contrary to that accepted orthodoxy. And I kept backing off from them. Again, why?

Because it was HERESY. A record like that would be a permanent stain on my future. Whether it was a political future (I don't seek one) or professional (who knows what the future could hold), today's Google-searching world makes one realize that every public (and perhaps some private) actions of an individual can be before the billions alive today in a heartbeat. Ask Obama, as we see the X millionth replay of the Youtube videos of the reverend from his Chicago church.

Once branded a heretic today, there is likely no absolution other than abject apologies and public repentance for your sins. But what if you KNOW you are right? It makes no difference, the world of higher education today has made sure that heretics who don't subscribe to the doctrine of white oppression, moral relativism, and American foreign policy evils should be "burned at the stake" to purify our national soul. Notice the silence coming from the McCain campaign on these issues? Boy, is he glad he is out of the country right now. I'll bet he never thought he'd be so glad that Iraq is still in the news; it justifies him focusing on that hot button issue and gives cover to his silence on the racial one.

It's been a re-education watching HBO's landmark series on American Founding Father John Adams. Everytime you think popular culture has no redeeming value, we surprise ourselves with what we are capable of doing with our money, talents, and high ideals. While only two episodes have been released so far, it didn't take more than a few minutes of the first episode to be reminded of how we SHOULD be approaching these kinds of thorny questions.

Adams is a struggling lawyer in 1770 Boston. His cousin is a leader of the radical faction known as The Sons of Liberty. A squad of British troops is on trial for murder in what we today know as the Boston Massacre. Adams is asked to defend the captain against the charge that he ordered the troops to fire on an unruly mob killing several citizens. The politically wise decision would have been to do what every other lawyer had done: take a pass on the case. Adams sees that the issue is whether we are a land ruled by men, or ruled by laws; a morally courageous view that will make his voice more honored by his countrymen in years to come.

The only moral equivalence that Adams offers at trial is that a nation that feels wronged to be taxed without representation cannot also deny certain men the protection of their rights because of political differences: the law must be applied equally to all.

In April of 2007 Barack Obama called for the dismissal of shock jock Don Imus over some stupid racially insensitive remarks made off the cuff on his radio show. Obama said at the time

"I understand MSNBC has suspended Mr. Imus," Obama told ABC News, "but I would also say that there's nobody on my staff who would still be working for me if they made a comment like that about anybody of any ethnic group. And I would hope that NBC ends up having that same attitude."

Well, the Reverend Wright was part of Obama's campaign. He took his family to hear him on Sunday for 20 years. He gave him thousands of dollars. But today, he wants us to understand the fevered conspiracy theories and hate speech of a reverend's words written for effect and sold on DVDs for distribution to the widest audience. (The church's website has been scrubbed in the past few days)He took his children to hear from a man who accused the CIA of creating AIDS to kill blacks, called this country the "US of KKKA", and referred to the black Secretary of State as "Condaskeeza Rice." (definition of "skeeze") If we had substituted black for white, and vice versa, in the reverend's speeches, would we be getting a explanation from Obama or condemnation of the sort that Mr. Imus received? I fear I know the answer to that one.

It has been the great value of our open society to read a vast array of opinion and commentary over the last several days on this issue. It has made me grateful over and over that men like John Adams risked all so that I could do so. I am going to link several, dear reader, for you to think and ponder over.

There is no question that Senator Obama is a talented and well-meaning individual. Undoubtably his speech on Tuesday inspired and brought tears to the eye of many on both sides. But questions remain over whether the civil rights leadership of today's African-American community have taken up the charge of Dr. King and his desire for his children to grow up in a "nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.". That was from Dr. King's "I have a dream" speech. One wag referred to Obama's effort as his "I have an excuse" speech. Ouch. Obama's actions will determine where he truly stands. He can start with some changes on his website. One of the blogs that was once linked on the Obama website was for the NBPP: the New Black Panther Party. Why is it no longer there? A simple explanation would speak volumes. Is he cleansing or laying low?

Anyway, here are the links...I thank you for your time. I would love to hear your comments.

Coach

A fellow historian whose most recent book on the Peloponnesian War and it's lessons for today is Victor Davis Hanson. He is also the author of the courageous Mexifornia. He has had several comments here, here, and here.

A couple examples of those who thought it was the speech of the century and likened it to people like Lincoln are here, here, and here.

Some thoughts on how it might play out politically here, here, and here.

An article with some deeper cultural questions that jumped out at me is here.

Quickly, it is 5 years since the Iraq invasion and both sides have their big guns out. Ralph Peters has been hawk, then dove, then hawk. And as a military man, I appreciate his strategic open-box thinking. His latest thoughts are here.

I'll be back soon, and returning to more straight political analysis in the days ahead. I thank you for your forbearance.

Toast or phoenix?

That's the question people are asking now...is Hillary toast, or liable to rise like a phoenix from the ashes. President Bush's legacy...millstone to the Republicans or likely to be reassessed more positively by historians. John McCain, past his prime or right for the time? Barack Obama, too green or just right for today's scene?

It's darn hard to drive down the road while keeping your eyes focused on the rear-view mirror. If the last few months have proven anything, it's that a few months is plenty of time for things to change drastically; there's that word "change" again.

Let's look just 5 months ago...Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in for the nomination...Iraq was considered a hopeless disaster by BOTH party's leadership. Bush was hated by anyone with black skin. John McCain was too old and his campaign in too much disarray to have any chance at the Republican nomination. How could anyone vote for a guy named "Huckabee"? You might as well call yourself "Gomer Pyle." No one could get the Republican nomination without the endorsement of right-wing talk radio. The mainstream civil rights leadership was behind Hillary Clinton because Obama was too inexperienced. Besides, the white electorate wouldn't vote for a black person. Young people rarely vote or care about politics. Latinos would never vote for a black candidate. The New York Times would never print gossip about a presidential candidate. All of these have gone the way of "I'll respect you in the morning", "the check is in the mail", and my favorite, "I'm from the government, I'm here to help."

Now...where are we? Hillary is being called "done for" by so many media outlets that those who say she ISN'T done for are the exception. Iraq is even being acknowledged as having turned the corner those who said just the opposite a year ago and has almost disappeared from the election debate as Petraeus is recommending troop drawdowns. Bush is being hailed by rock stars and African NGOs as the president who has done the most for that beleaguered continent in recent history. McCain is the going to be the Republican nominee. Only Huckabee is left, after Mr. Olympia and his $46 million have left the scene. Limbaugh, Hannity, Coulter et. al. can only fume about the rise of McCain. The civil rights leadership and the Super Delegates are trying to sneak out of the Clinton camp undetected. White voters are flocking to Obama led by young voters. Even Latinos may give him their vote over Hillary in Texas. And the Times has slimed McCain the day after he declared himself to be the nominee. McCain's longstanding friendship with the press has earned him defenders from amongst the most unlikely media corners.

What should we take from all this?

That any polls prior to November of 2008 are garbage. Does this mean we will stop setting ourselves up for these kinds of misjudgments with future predictions?

Heck no! What will bloggers like me do? ;)

By the way...one of the best at political analysis is Michael Barone. His assessment of the general election at this point in time can be seen here.

Coach

Time is not on her side...

The big Obama victory in the Chesapeake Primaries Tuesday night were massive in the margin of victory and in their import. Virginia is one state that Hillary should have had a good chance at taking, but it seems like the Democrat operatives in the gov't areas across the Potomac seem to be tossing Team Clinton aside for the Obama message of "hope and change."

Is Hillary irretrievably behind? Tomorrow's New York Times is saying, "Perhaps." It remains to be seen. She is relying on her "base" of Latinos and blue-collar Democrats in the last few large population states: Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

So far, some polls are hopeful for her, but it's not altogether clear whether she can turn things around even if she runs the traditional Democratic table with these big population states. Obama thinks he will continue to chip away by taking his media-driven momentum in the smaller caucus and primary states, putting his campaign into a four-corners offense that Hillary can't seem to compete with. It's a unique phenomenon in American politics; a young senator with little time on the national stage defeating a well-oiled machine.

A clear warning that winds had changed was a highly critical article by longtime AP reporter Ron Fournier (Fournier has been given credit for urging Al Gore to challenge the Florida results in many authoritative books on the 2000 election crisis) If this media friend of the Clintons has jumped ship, perhaps the winds of change are irrevocably blowing Obama's way.

There isn't much to talk about in the Republican side right now except for how long before Huckabee runs out of money, and when does McCain announce his Veep choice. McCain will simply "win, place, or show" his way to the nomination by accumulating delegates throughout the spring and should have it wrapped up by Pennsylvania's primary on April 22nd.

What will the Clintons be willing to do in order to win? Will they listen to the Democrat brain trust? Will any of the Super Delegates give in to pressure from them?

Once again, it's time to get out the popcorn...

The plot thickens...

Well, the Republican race has pretty much settled in. Even Fred Thompson has endorsed John McCain, so this only leaves Mike Huckabee either in denial or running for Veep. Only he knows for sure. But you can already see the media changing from "we love McCain the maverick" to "the Democrats are ready to open up on the Republican." Interesting. Huckabee has won Kansas' caucus easily and as I write this, may win Washington state and Louisiana. It's not going to be pretty.

Meanwhile, it's ugly for the Clintons as well. Obama has taken the Nebraska and Washington caucuses easily and seems on his way to winning the Louisiana primary at press time.

Will he be able to keep it together all the way to November? Has presidential politics in America become a kind of "American Idol" affair?

What a year...

So many things...so little time...

On the day Romney pulled out and essentially handed McCain the Republican nomination, a lightning bolt struck the Democratic race: the Clintons are low on money.

If there has been one thing Team Clinton has always excelled at, it's raising money from their supporters...but many of those supporters are now tired of the Clintons and the stress of their "war room" politicking and are now giving money to Obama. The Illinois senator garnered @$30 million last month and is well on his way to repeating that in February. The Clinton campaign reports less than half that for January and Hillary admitted last night that she lent her campaign $5 million two weeks ago.

Couching that as a "putting her money where her mouth is" type of proclamation, it has rightfully raised the question of where the Clintons are getting their money. While the media is aware of the Clinton family book deals and speaking engagements, many are asking about the Clinton business dealing that some think are ways to work around the campaign finance laws.

After surviving the cattle futures questions of the 80s and the Whitewater questions of the 90s, you would think the Clintons would be more circumspect in their financing.

Meanwhile, the bruising Democratic primary fight continues this weekend with a primary in Louisiana and caucuses (Obama has won 7 out of 8) in Washington state and Nebraska.

Get out the popcorn...

Coach

Will Denver become Chicago 1968?

So many of the elements are there...the upstart young freshman senator with the backing of the Kennedy family...the opposition candidate with ties to a Democratic presidency...possible challenges over seating of delegations...close vote counts, passionate feelings, the backdrop of an unpopular war.

Hopefully, there is where the parallels will stop. We don't need a redux of 1968 replete with assassinations, riots, protests, etc. But there is certainly the concern of acrimony over tactics, race, gender, distrust of "backroom dealing" and the loser may yell "we wuz robbed!"

After all the sturm und drang leading up to Super Tuesday, there is no clear favorite among the Democrats. Obama won more states, but Hillary won three of the four most populous states. Both had overwhelming majorities of two major Democratic demographic groups: Hillary won massively with Latinos, Obama with blacks. Obama bit hard into Hillary's constituency of women, and Hillary won much of the male labor union vote; Bill remains a strong asset to her campaign and her appeal.

So where does that leave us? With a campaign that will probably abound with acrimonious fights over the "lost" delegations of Michigan and Florida, for one. This will get a lot of airplay over the next few months, so get used to it. Each week will have the "next critical primary/caucus".

What about the elephants? Well, it wasn't a great night for McCain, but it was good enough. He could "place" and "show" for most of the rest of the primary season and he will still amass enough delegates to become the nominee. With most of the rest of the delegates being awarded in each state on a proportional basis, it is hard to come up with a scenario where McCain does not win the GOP nod. Romney seems to have suffered from a southern trend that just can't quite vote for a Mormon, and Huckabee became the beneficiary of that three way split in the vote. However, Huckabee seems to have little mass appeal outside of the Bible Belt. Will he expect a VP tap from McCain as a reward?

Romney has a big decision to make. He has spent upwards of $50 million of his personal fortune so far. Losing California, when some late polls had suggested it was in reach, was a huge blow to his desire to be seen as the last refuge for conservatives who oppose McCain. Wisdom might suggest that now is the time to get out, endorse McCain, and prepare for a second run in '12 or '16. Huckabee has seen most of the states where he has a chance to win; if he has his eye on a spot in a McCain administration, he might find his bargaining position is at it's highest now. The party will put pressure on those two to get out as soon as possible.

It will be very difficult for the Republicans to hold the White House this November. The Democrats are fired up like we haven't seen since 1992...hmm....who ran then? Even in "red" states, most primaries saw more Democrats vote in their primaries than Republicans. In an election, the enthusiasm of your followers for the candidate is key to success. McCain will need all the time he can spare between now and November to try to repair the damage done to his relationship with the conservative wing of his party. Many doubt it can be done, but all pundits know that he can't possibly win without them.

The consensus opinion is that the best thing the Republicans would have going for them this fall is to have McCain at the top of the ticket and Hillary opposing him. They calculate that even the most rabid right-winger, who considers McCain to be "liberal", will grudgingly cast a vote for him this fall in order to prevent a return to power by the Clintons.

I wouldn't bet on that.

Meanwhile, some old enemies are preparing to remind us that they may end up being a factor to consider when electing a commander-in-chief...

Coach

All over but the shouting?

The Democrats had their final debate prior to Super Tuesday on Thursday night, and the pundits will start tracking with their Blackberries to determine what the probable delegate counts will be on the morning of February 6th. To a great extent, last night's debate was an attempt by the two survivors to show how they can play like adults and rise above the rancor shown the night before at the Republican debate. They succeeded.

Hillary came away with the sound bite I am sure we will hear from now until November 5: "It did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush." It was no surprise to see a huge roar of approval from the Hollywood audience that is enthusiastic for either one of the candidates to replace the current occupant of the White House. Which will be the nominee?

All signs point to a tightening race in a total of votes, but as in the general election, the point is to win states and their caches of delegates. While the recent endorsements of Obama are likely to help, especially in fundraising for the Illinois senator, Hillary is still the presumptive nominee. Look for Bill to be much quieter these days and rather than holding rallies, spend more of his time doing what he does best: raising money.

It will be interesting to see the strategy and results of the time between when it dawns on people that the nominating process is all but over (I suggest that will happen in about 10 days) and the summer conventions. The Clintons must have a huge cache of things to unload on a man like John McCain who has a public record in the Senate going back decades. Will that turn things around from polls that show either Democrat with a 6-8 point deficit to the former Navy pilot?

There hasn't been a lot of changes in the political ether that would suggest we have had any significant realignment of the Electoral College landscape in the USA. There are some more subtle changes in each party, and the effect that would have on "purple" states is unclear. It leads us to some obvious questions:

Should Hillary and McCain be the nominees this fall what happens in the closer states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire?

Do rank and file union members (Reagan Democrats) choose the more moderate McCain over Hillary because of her gender...and her feminist attitudes and personality?

Does the hardcore conservative base, who have to flip a coin to see if they hate McCain more or Hillary more, stay home? They were a large part of George W. Bush's margin in some close midwestern states and a big part of his financial and worker base for the Get Out The Vote effort. Will their Hillary Derangement Syndrome force them to hold their noses and vote for McCain?

Will the diversity crowd, who the Clintons hit with a political 2X4 in South Carolina, forgive Hillary and come home...or choose a Republican who seems almost as much at odds with conservative Republicans as they are?

Does the ton of dirt and skeletons, which the media will dredge up at the behest of the Clintons, change the public image of McCain as an honorable war hero who is a maverick within his own party?

Does his age become a factor?

Does her husband become a factor?

Will either one surprise us with their VP pick? McCain would seem to need a conservative to offer an olive branch to his base. Hillary might want a Bill Richardson to cement the Latinos as her new base since she may have damaged herself with the African-American community.

Finally, the possible surprise that no one seems to think of...will Al Qaida or the situation in Iraq steal the show? Will we be in recession by November, or will we be grateful we dodged a bullet?(Things look better on that front with companies looking to grab opportunities as Microsoft is doing today)

Much to ponder in the months ahead...

Coach

One down, one to go

John McCain's substantial victory in Florida Tuesday night essentially ends the Republican nomination process. Rudy Giuliani is expected to withdraw from the race tonight at the Reagan Library and endorse McCain. Most of Rudy's support will go to McCain in those most populated Super Tuesday states such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, and Missouri. Many are "winner-takes-all" primaries like Florida was. The big one, California, is liable to go for the senator from Arizona as well, but it gives it's delegates out proportionally by congressional districts, so McCain's victory there will be less of an impact on the contest.

Why do I think it ends things? Because the Republican hierarchy is ready to call it. The other candidates have been working together to stop Romney and it is working. Huckabee has been drawing from the more conservative wing of the party. The voters that might be fertile votes for Romney in the south are going to Huckabee. That will give the former Arkansas governor some victories in Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, and possibly Tennessee. That leaves Romney with table scraps.

At this point, Mitt has the choice of hanging in there as long as possible to pick up enough delegates to earn possible VP consideration, but that's about it. The GOP brass wants a ticket that will have a chance to unite the party to defeat Hillary this fall. McCain's choice of a VP will be key because of this stinging defeat of the conservative wing of the party there needs to be a peace offering to their most ardent campaign workers. McCain's age, his past battles with skin cancer, and his credibility problems with the right wingers means that his VP choice must be someone who could be president from day one. That choice will tell us a lot about how a President McCain would govern...

On the Democrat side, Hillary won a lopsided victory in a state that she promised she would not campaign in...and then, of course, she broke that promise. Will Democrat voters hold that against her? Probably not if she can return possession of the White House to them. The Democrats feared that McCain would end up being the Republican nominee. They were hoping for a GOP version of McGovern: a nominee from the far right wing like Huckabee, Thompson, or Romney. While McCain may need to throw a sop to the Limbaugh wing of the party with his Veep choice, in the end, the former POW carries the kind of maverick credentials and experience in government that will make him a possible choice for disaffected Democrats and independents come this November.

If the Clintons end up winning the nomination does that causes a large number of Obama supporters to cry out "we wuz robbed?" One would have to watch carefully to see if McCain will be considered close enough to the middle of the ideological spectrum to gain their votes and drag along other Republican congressional candidates to restore a Republican majority in the Congress. Republican gerrymandering over the last 8 years still makes the default tendency in the House of Representatives to be Republican. If freshman Democrat congressmen down south have to run in defense of Hillary and Nancy Pelosi, what are their chances for re-election? Will McCain at the top of the ticket be able to convince independents and Reagan Democrats to give the Republican party another chance at running Congress?

Who would have thought that the snarky Navy pilot could be the first domino in a possible realignment of our two political parties?

Coach

the Smell of Fear

Sometimes you can see it...feel it...even taste it. They say animals can detect fear in human beings and it often will lead to a violent attack because an opportunity to go for the kill is there.

After the Democratic competitors agreed to respect the National Committee's sanctions on Michigan and Florida primaries, the Clinton campaign has decided to re-interpret what the "meaning of 'is' is." This after all the Democrat hopefuls had agreed not to campaign in Florida

Hillary is winging into Florida as I write to "let the people of Florida know that their voices will be heard."

I will let the reader judge what is going on here, but this has got to be the most stunning last few weeks in modern American political history. I plan on going into more detail tomorrow as Florida has once again become the center of US election drama!

Oh...one more bombshell...Teddy Kennedy is going to endorse Obama on Monday. This in spite of a personal appeal from Kennedy by Bill Clinton. How ironic...it was Bill Clinton's vigorous campaigning on behalf of the senior senator from Massachusetts in 1994 that helped turn back his Republican challenger...a man who was leading Senator Kennedy in the polls at the time...that man...was Mitt Romney.

Cue the Twilight Zone music, please...

A stunner in the Palmetto State

There will be extensive analysis of the political earthquake known as the Democratic Presidential Primary in South Carolina. One thing is certain: NO ONE FORESAW THIS.

Even Obama's people are stunned. The magnitude of the rejection of the Clinton campaign is massive and the punditry are already reading the pigs' entrails. The exit polling data is remarkable. Most expected Obama to win the state because of the massive African-American vote in the South Carolina Democrat Party. But Hillary lost the white vote to the combination of Obama and Edwards. That's incredible. Also, Obama won the 30 and under white vote heavily and Hillary ended up losing every county. Considering how much time her husband spent campaigning there for her, it was pretty amazing.

There will be no delegate-assigning contest until the all-important Super Tuesday of February 5th which will have primaries and caucuses in 21 states. But this landslide 28% point decision by the junior senator from Illinois has got to be disquieting for the Clinton campaign. Even the surviving Kennedy descendant has chosen tonight to throw her support behind Obama in an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times.

The contest in Florida this Tuesday will not have any delegates awarded as a penalty for Florida's Democratic Party state committee's violation of the earliest primary date set by the National Democratic Committee. This "beauty contest" might be significant if Obama can pull a close loss or even a small victory there. The demographics in Florida are quite different, but since Florida might see a lesser turnout because there was no campaigning allowed, the energy and enthusiasm of a candidate's supporters might lead to huge surprises; as we saw in South Carolina tonight. Florida's Democratic primary might have some drama after all...

Meanwhile, the Republican's had things to talk about as well. Florida's popular Republican governor Crist surprised many by endorsing John McCain. Crist had been resisting getting into the endorsement game, and the Giuliani campaign was led to believe that if he DID endorse anyone, it would be the former Mayor of New York City. Crist's action is seen as an attempt to lift McCain over Mitt Romney while stepping over the political corpse of the once "consensus frontrunner" Giuliani. Of such shallow friendships, political careers are often made and broken.

While celebrating this cherished endorsement, McCain was asked about his accusation that Mitt Romney had publically stated that he, Romney, was in favor of an announced withdrawal. When Romney's quotation in question was uncovered by reporters and Romney's campaign pointed out that the characterization was a gross misrepresentation, Romney's people demanded an apology from McCain.

McCain said he would give no such apology and that if any apology was owed, it was one Romney owed to the veterans and soldiers who were fighting for their country in Iraq. Even the New York Times, no fan of Romney (or in fact, of ANY Republican...and having just endorsed McCain a few days ago for the Republican nomination) pointed out the distortion of Romney's position.

This will not endear McCain to the conservative wing of the party which already does not trust him. Most believe he has focused too much on "getting along" with the Democrats instead of supporting the principles and leadership of the Republican party. Others see him as willing to distort the position of one of the rising mainstream conservatives in race in order to win. His attack on Romney's support for the War on Terror is a risky gambit.

A wise man of many political campaigns once said, "You don't change your strategy or message if your internal polling is tell you it's working. You only change it if your data says its not."

McCain is keeping his eye on the dissolution of Giuliani's base in Florida. By now, even those who aren't politically astute down there must be aware that Rudy's support is slipping.

If this is so, where will his supporters go?

We may find out Tuesday night...

Coach

Edit: Here's some of the front pages of the Sunday morning papers on the primary.

Unprecedented

We keep hearing this term over and over. "This election is unprecedented." The easy explanation is that it's unprecedented because a woman might win. It's unprecedented because a black might win. It's unprecedented because a minister might win. It's unprecedented because a former POW might win. It's unprecedented because a Mormon might win. It's unprecedented because a mayor might win.

It certainly wouldn't have been unprecedented if a former TV actor had won...and now we know a second one WON'T win. Fred Thompson has dropped out and chose not to endorse anyone. We have little to conclude as to where his supporters will go now, not that there were huge numbers out there to redistribute. The Thompson story will provide interesting fodder for the students of political science. What happened to the man who the right-wing base of the Republican party were screaming for? The moonbat wing of the party will conclude that he was done in by the mainstream media, who always accused him of being too lazy to win. But in the end, he was never able to fully connect with the electorate and now post-mortem stories are saying he was only really interested in the Veep spot. If so, few truly motivated contenders will want him as their running mate. Gotta have that "fire in the belly" to win.

The departure of Thompson may help John McCain's rivals in Florida as they try to establish themselves as the "more conservative" alternatives. Romney has picked up an important Thompson money person (not that the multi-millionaire really needs it), Huckabee has picked up a surprise endorsement from anti-open borders presidential dropout Duncan Hunter, and Rudy is hanging on for dear life with his "roll the dice on Florida/Super Tuesday" strategy.

Money is fast becoming the most sought after commodity on the campaign trail, and I don't mean because of the volatile stock market trading sessions of the last few weeks. Huckabee is reportedly short on cash, and Obama and Hillary are duking it out in "Cullyfoahniah" for the Hollywood money.

The Democratic battle is getting much uglier than people thought it could. Race and gender were supposed to be issues for the party's standard-bearer to beat the Republicans up with, not each other. Over and over and over again, it is one of the biggest issues between the Clinton and Obama supporters. But that is not the biggest issue that has surfaced between these two contenders. There is a question of whether the way the Clintons are tag-teaming Obama is "not presidential". This terminology was used by former Democrat Senate Majority leader Tom Daschle. Just the fact that such a prominent former Democrat leader would bring this up in the middle of a presidential primary is "unprecedented" in itself.

We are beginning to see a lot of columnists criticize the Clinton duo for their "joint" efforts and openly question whether Bill Clinton is simply campaigning for a third term We are talking about people like Maureen Dowd of the New York Times, Dana Milbank of the Washington Post and others who usually make a living off of bludgeoning President Bush. No one is surprised when these kinds of comments come from the conservative spectrum of punditry, but if you add in the foreign journalists, the ones mentioned as looking forward to a return of Clinton power to restore America's image, one has to wonder what is truly going on here. Finally, when The Onion gets into the act, you know it is in the mainstream thought...or else it wouldn't be funny. Humor has a way of seeking out those secret suspicions in the public consciousness.

Obama knows that the Super Delegate aspect of the Democratic Party nomination process and the loading of the Super Tuesday states with the old Clinton campaign structure makes it unlikely that he will win the nomination this year. He's looking ahead 4 to 8 years. But that doesn't mean that he doesn't need to show his supporters that he knows how to fight back against the kind of political street fighting that is going on now. Right now, he is fighting the Clintons...in future campaigns, he will need to be fighting Republicans. So, he has to carefully go after the Clintons with his subordinates, and keep his cleaner image of one who is determined to stay above the fray. It may be hard to keep himself "mud-free", but he's trying.

Meanwhile, there are other issues in the world. North Korea remains insane, Iran remains dangerous, and the economy is perceived as being on the edge of recession by the haughty internationalists. Political correctness continues to inflict a Europe who fears enraging an ever-growing Muslim minority in it's midst. All of this will be on the plate for the next "leader of the free world."

The question remains: is this cast up to it?

Coach

Edit: In a stunning echo of what I have written about the Democrat race, Matt Drudge's website, where almost every newsreporter almost universally turns to find out what is the "hot topic" in the news, is flooded with articles on the continuing strife between Obama and the Clintons. Take your pick of reading here, here, here, here, here, and a major liberal talk show host rips into President Clinton for this in this video. Michelle Obama gets into it here. Unbelievable.