Wednesday, January 9, 2008

A primary season full of surprises...

I expect to edit this post at least a few times today. I especially expect to add links in to support my later conclusions.

Just a few quick observations about the New Hampshire Primary.

1) People will speculate about either a) Hillary's emotional moment having turned things around almost overnight or b) Obama's supporters being overconfident because of polling data and many independents who were going to vote for Obama instead deciding to vote for McCain to affect the outcome of the Republican race.

2) All this early speculation about "so-and-so will have to drop out of the race now" is nonsense. Especially on the Republican side. Huckabee is leading polls in South Carolina, McCain in Michigan, and Rudy in Florida. But that could all change. Romney has the money to go on. His strategy didn't play out, but he sees himself as the tortoise to some of the other "hares". The one in real trouble now is Fred Thompson. If Huckabee wins SC, Fred may be dead. That is something that would have been quite unexpected a few months ago.

3) The Clinton phenomenon has new life, just hours after pundits everywhere were writing their political epitaph and hitching their star to the new messiah, Barack Obama.

4) California has got to be excited. For the first time since 1968, they are relevant. Let's hope that is the only parallel to that horrible year in our nation's history.

More later,

Coach

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