One down, one to go

John McCain's substantial victory in Florida Tuesday night essentially ends the Republican nomination process. Rudy Giuliani is expected to withdraw from the race tonight at the Reagan Library and endorse McCain. Most of Rudy's support will go to McCain in those most populated Super Tuesday states such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, and Missouri. Many are "winner-takes-all" primaries like Florida was. The big one, California, is liable to go for the senator from Arizona as well, but it gives it's delegates out proportionally by congressional districts, so McCain's victory there will be less of an impact on the contest.

Why do I think it ends things? Because the Republican hierarchy is ready to call it. The other candidates have been working together to stop Romney and it is working. Huckabee has been drawing from the more conservative wing of the party. The voters that might be fertile votes for Romney in the south are going to Huckabee. That will give the former Arkansas governor some victories in Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, and possibly Tennessee. That leaves Romney with table scraps.

At this point, Mitt has the choice of hanging in there as long as possible to pick up enough delegates to earn possible VP consideration, but that's about it. The GOP brass wants a ticket that will have a chance to unite the party to defeat Hillary this fall. McCain's choice of a VP will be key because of this stinging defeat of the conservative wing of the party there needs to be a peace offering to their most ardent campaign workers. McCain's age, his past battles with skin cancer, and his credibility problems with the right wingers means that his VP choice must be someone who could be president from day one. That choice will tell us a lot about how a President McCain would govern...

On the Democrat side, Hillary won a lopsided victory in a state that she promised she would not campaign in...and then, of course, she broke that promise. Will Democrat voters hold that against her? Probably not if she can return possession of the White House to them. The Democrats feared that McCain would end up being the Republican nominee. They were hoping for a GOP version of McGovern: a nominee from the far right wing like Huckabee, Thompson, or Romney. While McCain may need to throw a sop to the Limbaugh wing of the party with his Veep choice, in the end, the former POW carries the kind of maverick credentials and experience in government that will make him a possible choice for disaffected Democrats and independents come this November.

If the Clintons end up winning the nomination does that causes a large number of Obama supporters to cry out "we wuz robbed?" One would have to watch carefully to see if McCain will be considered close enough to the middle of the ideological spectrum to gain their votes and drag along other Republican congressional candidates to restore a Republican majority in the Congress. Republican gerrymandering over the last 8 years still makes the default tendency in the House of Representatives to be Republican. If freshman Democrat congressmen down south have to run in defense of Hillary and Nancy Pelosi, what are their chances for re-election? Will McCain at the top of the ticket be able to convince independents and Reagan Democrats to give the Republican party another chance at running Congress?

Who would have thought that the snarky Navy pilot could be the first domino in a possible realignment of our two political parties?

Coach

the Smell of Fear

Sometimes you can see it...feel it...even taste it. They say animals can detect fear in human beings and it often will lead to a violent attack because an opportunity to go for the kill is there.

After the Democratic competitors agreed to respect the National Committee's sanctions on Michigan and Florida primaries, the Clinton campaign has decided to re-interpret what the "meaning of 'is' is." This after all the Democrat hopefuls had agreed not to campaign in Florida

Hillary is winging into Florida as I write to "let the people of Florida know that their voices will be heard."

I will let the reader judge what is going on here, but this has got to be the most stunning last few weeks in modern American political history. I plan on going into more detail tomorrow as Florida has once again become the center of US election drama!

Oh...one more bombshell...Teddy Kennedy is going to endorse Obama on Monday. This in spite of a personal appeal from Kennedy by Bill Clinton. How ironic...it was Bill Clinton's vigorous campaigning on behalf of the senior senator from Massachusetts in 1994 that helped turn back his Republican challenger...a man who was leading Senator Kennedy in the polls at the time...that man...was Mitt Romney.

Cue the Twilight Zone music, please...

A stunner in the Palmetto State

There will be extensive analysis of the political earthquake known as the Democratic Presidential Primary in South Carolina. One thing is certain: NO ONE FORESAW THIS.

Even Obama's people are stunned. The magnitude of the rejection of the Clinton campaign is massive and the punditry are already reading the pigs' entrails. The exit polling data is remarkable. Most expected Obama to win the state because of the massive African-American vote in the South Carolina Democrat Party. But Hillary lost the white vote to the combination of Obama and Edwards. That's incredible. Also, Obama won the 30 and under white vote heavily and Hillary ended up losing every county. Considering how much time her husband spent campaigning there for her, it was pretty amazing.

There will be no delegate-assigning contest until the all-important Super Tuesday of February 5th which will have primaries and caucuses in 21 states. But this landslide 28% point decision by the junior senator from Illinois has got to be disquieting for the Clinton campaign. Even the surviving Kennedy descendant has chosen tonight to throw her support behind Obama in an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times.

The contest in Florida this Tuesday will not have any delegates awarded as a penalty for Florida's Democratic Party state committee's violation of the earliest primary date set by the National Democratic Committee. This "beauty contest" might be significant if Obama can pull a close loss or even a small victory there. The demographics in Florida are quite different, but since Florida might see a lesser turnout because there was no campaigning allowed, the energy and enthusiasm of a candidate's supporters might lead to huge surprises; as we saw in South Carolina tonight. Florida's Democratic primary might have some drama after all...

Meanwhile, the Republican's had things to talk about as well. Florida's popular Republican governor Crist surprised many by endorsing John McCain. Crist had been resisting getting into the endorsement game, and the Giuliani campaign was led to believe that if he DID endorse anyone, it would be the former Mayor of New York City. Crist's action is seen as an attempt to lift McCain over Mitt Romney while stepping over the political corpse of the once "consensus frontrunner" Giuliani. Of such shallow friendships, political careers are often made and broken.

While celebrating this cherished endorsement, McCain was asked about his accusation that Mitt Romney had publically stated that he, Romney, was in favor of an announced withdrawal. When Romney's quotation in question was uncovered by reporters and Romney's campaign pointed out that the characterization was a gross misrepresentation, Romney's people demanded an apology from McCain.

McCain said he would give no such apology and that if any apology was owed, it was one Romney owed to the veterans and soldiers who were fighting for their country in Iraq. Even the New York Times, no fan of Romney (or in fact, of ANY Republican...and having just endorsed McCain a few days ago for the Republican nomination) pointed out the distortion of Romney's position.

This will not endear McCain to the conservative wing of the party which already does not trust him. Most believe he has focused too much on "getting along" with the Democrats instead of supporting the principles and leadership of the Republican party. Others see him as willing to distort the position of one of the rising mainstream conservatives in race in order to win. His attack on Romney's support for the War on Terror is a risky gambit.

A wise man of many political campaigns once said, "You don't change your strategy or message if your internal polling is tell you it's working. You only change it if your data says its not."

McCain is keeping his eye on the dissolution of Giuliani's base in Florida. By now, even those who aren't politically astute down there must be aware that Rudy's support is slipping.

If this is so, where will his supporters go?

We may find out Tuesday night...

Coach

Edit: Here's some of the front pages of the Sunday morning papers on the primary.

Friends, Romans, interest groups, lend me your earmarks

This is going to be a real brief explanation of what earmarks are. Some of you may have heard this referred to in news items, but most Americans really don't understand what they are, how they get there, and what effect it has on the American political system. A better explanation of it can be found in this article.

The US Government votes a budget and assigns money to specific programs. Usually, qualifying institutions/persons have to apply for that money in order to get a government grant. Unless...a congressperson can get part of that program's budget "earmarked" for an organization to receive. Now, the problem isn't that this then leads to a higher budget amount; no extra money is needed to set aside an earmark. The threat of corruption lies in the idea that those who give the most money to a candidate for office will expect money from a government grant program to make sure to have money set aside for his organization. Thus, government grant money will go to "the highest bidder."

Who had the largest number of earmarks this past term?

Take a guess.

Coach

Unprecedented

We keep hearing this term over and over. "This election is unprecedented." The easy explanation is that it's unprecedented because a woman might win. It's unprecedented because a black might win. It's unprecedented because a minister might win. It's unprecedented because a former POW might win. It's unprecedented because a Mormon might win. It's unprecedented because a mayor might win.

It certainly wouldn't have been unprecedented if a former TV actor had won...and now we know a second one WON'T win. Fred Thompson has dropped out and chose not to endorse anyone. We have little to conclude as to where his supporters will go now, not that there were huge numbers out there to redistribute. The Thompson story will provide interesting fodder for the students of political science. What happened to the man who the right-wing base of the Republican party were screaming for? The moonbat wing of the party will conclude that he was done in by the mainstream media, who always accused him of being too lazy to win. But in the end, he was never able to fully connect with the electorate and now post-mortem stories are saying he was only really interested in the Veep spot. If so, few truly motivated contenders will want him as their running mate. Gotta have that "fire in the belly" to win.

The departure of Thompson may help John McCain's rivals in Florida as they try to establish themselves as the "more conservative" alternatives. Romney has picked up an important Thompson money person (not that the multi-millionaire really needs it), Huckabee has picked up a surprise endorsement from anti-open borders presidential dropout Duncan Hunter, and Rudy is hanging on for dear life with his "roll the dice on Florida/Super Tuesday" strategy.

Money is fast becoming the most sought after commodity on the campaign trail, and I don't mean because of the volatile stock market trading sessions of the last few weeks. Huckabee is reportedly short on cash, and Obama and Hillary are duking it out in "Cullyfoahniah" for the Hollywood money.

The Democratic battle is getting much uglier than people thought it could. Race and gender were supposed to be issues for the party's standard-bearer to beat the Republicans up with, not each other. Over and over and over again, it is one of the biggest issues between the Clinton and Obama supporters. But that is not the biggest issue that has surfaced between these two contenders. There is a question of whether the way the Clintons are tag-teaming Obama is "not presidential". This terminology was used by former Democrat Senate Majority leader Tom Daschle. Just the fact that such a prominent former Democrat leader would bring this up in the middle of a presidential primary is "unprecedented" in itself.

We are beginning to see a lot of columnists criticize the Clinton duo for their "joint" efforts and openly question whether Bill Clinton is simply campaigning for a third term We are talking about people like Maureen Dowd of the New York Times, Dana Milbank of the Washington Post and others who usually make a living off of bludgeoning President Bush. No one is surprised when these kinds of comments come from the conservative spectrum of punditry, but if you add in the foreign journalists, the ones mentioned as looking forward to a return of Clinton power to restore America's image, one has to wonder what is truly going on here. Finally, when The Onion gets into the act, you know it is in the mainstream thought...or else it wouldn't be funny. Humor has a way of seeking out those secret suspicions in the public consciousness.

Obama knows that the Super Delegate aspect of the Democratic Party nomination process and the loading of the Super Tuesday states with the old Clinton campaign structure makes it unlikely that he will win the nomination this year. He's looking ahead 4 to 8 years. But that doesn't mean that he doesn't need to show his supporters that he knows how to fight back against the kind of political street fighting that is going on now. Right now, he is fighting the Clintons...in future campaigns, he will need to be fighting Republicans. So, he has to carefully go after the Clintons with his subordinates, and keep his cleaner image of one who is determined to stay above the fray. It may be hard to keep himself "mud-free", but he's trying.

Meanwhile, there are other issues in the world. North Korea remains insane, Iran remains dangerous, and the economy is perceived as being on the edge of recession by the haughty internationalists. Political correctness continues to inflict a Europe who fears enraging an ever-growing Muslim minority in it's midst. All of this will be on the plate for the next "leader of the free world."

The question remains: is this cast up to it?

Coach

Edit: In a stunning echo of what I have written about the Democrat race, Matt Drudge's website, where almost every newsreporter almost universally turns to find out what is the "hot topic" in the news, is flooded with articles on the continuing strife between Obama and the Clintons. Take your pick of reading here, here, here, here, here, and a major liberal talk show host rips into President Clinton for this in this video. Michelle Obama gets into it here. Unbelievable.

The End Game begins

So it's only Nevada and South Carolina. Or is it.

Obama loses the vote, but wins more delegates. Who will be portrayed as the winner? Easy guess.

Meanwhile, Obama has begun to complain that the Clintons cheated. What? Obama accusing the Democrat power structure of not playing fair? This is the report we have of what will be in an interview on Good Morning America in just a few hours. So far, the only response has been from a Clinton spokesperson. In specific, Obama has been calling the former president out. Even more specifically, calling him a liar and saying they would call him on it in the future. All on Dr. King's observed birthday. Wow. How will the rank and file African-Americans, preparing to vote in Tuesday's crucial South Carolina primary, react?

In reality, this one is probably over. Even if Obama wins in SC Hillary will overwhelmingly win the beauty contest in Florida where polls say her transplanted NY base will give her a big win. (there will be no delegates awarded as a penalty for jumping the gun on the beginning of the primary season by the Democratic National Committee. Look for that to be restored later this year once Hillary has enough delegates to head to the convention as the ready to be crowned nominee.)

While some think this continuing civil war may bode ill for the Democrats in November, the Clintons know that there is no way this key voting bloc will ever vote Republican in our lifetime...or perhaps any other. Meanwhile, their smash-mouth tactics with lawsuits and "voter suppression" accusations are quickly earning them the fealty of the country's newest voting bloc --Latinos) Hillary overwhelmingly won the Latino vote in Nevada with her proclamation that "No woman is illegal." The Republican party is perceived by this new bloc as anti-Latino because of the party's general opposition to "open borders" and the Clintons will play this masterfully in the campaign this fall.

On the Republican side, Romney won handily in Nevada but it is being treated as an easy victory because the substantial Mormon population in Nevada voted 96% for the former governor of Massachusetts. His huge margin got "oh yea" play in the major media. All eyes were on South Carolina.

The pundits made much of the fact that a) the state had picked the eventual nominee of the party every year since 1980 and b) McCain was looking for redemption from the state's voters after South Carolina had basically ended his contest with George W. Bush for the nomination in 2000. A running sub-text in the evening was whether Fred Thompson could revive his flagging campaign with the first Southern contest of the season. Preacher Huckabee knew that he had a strong evangelical base to try and turn out in the western highlands of the Palmetto state, but McCain owned the coastal areas to win the day. Romney gave up the state in the last week to focus on getting the big win in Nevada.

The final tallys showed a victory for McCain and the media began to pronounce him the nominee apparent. While Florida's voice has yet to be heard, early polls show this is probably an accurate assessment of the race, and Fred's weak third place finish has him "Fred man walking."

So, after all the talk of "brokered conventions" and "uncivil wars" is it all over but the counting. If any primary season has thrown us surprises, it's been this one. But with the 20 states of Super Tuesday just 10 days away, and with the Clinton and McCain campaigns best set to exploit this, it may end with a whimper not a bang.

The one fly in the ointment could be a real nasty finger-pointing war as a result of Obama's accusatory statements, but the Clintons have been here before (Think how popular he was even after impeachment). If they think they have the Democratic base under control, look for Hillary to begin to ignore Obama more and more and focus her attacks on the unpopular president and the Republican party as rich elitists out of touch with the will of the people.

Coming soon to a TV screen near you....Clinton 1992/2008--"It's the economy again, stupid."

The race after Michigan

Four contests, three winners. That's where we stand in the Republican party. It was a true three-ring circus last night and a clear example of the quickly changing and vast country we live in today. Mike Huckabee and John McCain gave their concession speeches from South Carolina, having left by jet just hours before when exit polling data made clear that Romney was going to win the state by a significant margin.

Romney, of course, gave his victory speech near Detroit celebrating his win of the state where his father had been governor in the 1960s. As all the news networks were announcing his victory in Michigan, the Democrats were sitting down, literally, to a debate in Las Vegas. So while things were being wrapped up in Michigan, the battle was simultaneously being waged in the next two venues: South Carolina and Nevada.

So now we turn south and west at the same time: this Saturday the 19th. The Republicans will caucus in Nevada and vote in a primary in South Carolina...the first contest in the Republican base in the south. Where do things stand? You can find the polls as of today here and here. The media polls have been pretty inaccurate so far!

What of the Democrats? Nevada's uncivil war continues. The Teachers' Union, a stalking horse for the Clinton campaign, has continued it's lawsuit to move some caucus locations away from the Strip. It's too easy for Vegas casino workers, represented by the Obama-endorsing Culinary Union workers, to get to the caucuses and give victory to Obama's campaign. When questioned about the situation on a visit to Oakland today, President Clinton got in a little energetic discussion with a local report. You can see it here

Lost in all the shouting are the candidates hanging on for dear life. If Fred Thompson can't either win or come in a close second, it's back to Law and Order. Giuliani is on life support with all his chips on Florida. With such a longshot gamble Rudy perhaps should be campaigning in Las Vegas! Huckabee should do well with evangelicals in South Carolina. If he doesn't, it makes Iowa look more and more like a fluke. McCain was in a strong position when he entered South Carolina in 2000 then got smoked by George Bush and it was Bush's contest from there on. If Romney does well and McCain loses steam in SC, then all eyes will turn once again to Florida's winner take all primary on the 29th. The latest Florida numbers are here.

On the Democrat side, John Edwards has become little more than an "oh yea, Edwards" in polling and news coverage. If he bows out, will he give an endorsement? Will his people choose to go with the strong horse (Hillary) or the stop-Hillary candidate?

Meanwhile, Zogby's national poll, in the last few hours, has released a result that has Hillary and Obama tied. This is actually as worthless as winning the popular vote. Ask Al Gore. It's a state by state contest and no one knows this better than the Clintons. They have been carefully building state organizations while Bill was still in office in preparation for Hillary's run. They have no intention of letting this upstart derail her bid for the White House.

Super Tuesday is so-called because 20 states have their caucus or primary on that day: February 5th. Almost 40% of the delegates to the convention will be chosen that day, including important heavily populated states like California and New York. Both big states seem ripe for the picking by the junior senator from New York. Unless the young man from Illinois should surprise...in places like Nevada and South Carolina, thus building some momentum lost by his close defeat in New Hampshire. (Hillary seems safely ahead in Florida, packed as it is with former New York residents)

What she may fear even more is the fallout from any sense within the Democrat party that, as much as the Democrat faithful hate Republicans, the Clintons have somehow not played fair with the new political star of the party. It is unlikely that any of these disgruntled Obama supporters would choose the Republican nominee (perhaps excepting McCain) over Hillary. The biggest concern is not that your unhappy party supporters would vote for the opposing party nominee.

The Democrats should be more concerned that the Obama supporters would pout and stay home. This could give the election to the Republicans by default. The Clintons must be very careful to gingerly put down the Obama insurrection with kindness and conciliation or it may damage her chances in November.

Coach

A big week upcoming...

Two big contests this week. In Michigan, the Romney campaign is making a desperate stand. His father used to be governor of the state and he needs a win badly. Huckabee and McCain have gotten stronger in a state that the rest have conceded to the former Massachusetts governor.

Huckabee again is finding support from the homeschoolers and evangelical network. Look for him to nail down at least 25% of the vote. McCain is a middle-ground choice for many Republicans and independents. Remember that this was the site of his last victory over GW Bush in 2000.

Michigan violated the Republican National Committee's rule against primaries before February 5th, so they have been penalized by only having half the delegates to award that they normally would have. (they will be awarding 30 to the winners)

The Democratic National Committee penalized the state for the same reason and it cost ALL of the states delegates. Because of that, only Hillary Clinton has gone to the trouble of getting on the ballot here. Edwards and Obama supporters have been urging Democrats to vote for "uncommitted" to hopefully have "none of the above" defeat Mrs. Clinton. It might be more tempting for Democrats who want to vote to cross-over to the Republican primary and mess up their results a little although news reports suggest that some Republicans may be returning the favor. In 2000, their support was enough to give McCain his victory over George W. Bush. In fact, one of the most read liberal bloggers is encouraging voters to do just that.

Meanwhile, Nevada will be having caucuses on Saturday the 19th. In the Democrat caucus, it has broken out into open civil war. The Culinary Union, which employs 60,000 casino workers, has shocked the party and announced for Obama. The senator also picked up the endorsement of the party's 2004 nominee.

Senator Clinton is trying to counter with a strong pitch for women and Latino voters and invited controversy when she announced "no woman is illegal." This is just the kind of interparty warfare that the party has tried to avoid in this primary process, but the worst nightmare has happened. Many suspect that race is having an impact on choices for the Democrat nominee.

The Teachers Union in Nevada has filed a suit in Federal court trying to prevent the party from having most of it's Las Vegas caucus locations down on the Strip. Since work goes on 24 hours in Vegas, the party had supported keeping most of the locations close to where the workers were: near the casinos. But now that the union has gone and announced for Obama, the teachers' union, whose leadership have declared for Clinton, has sued to get the venues changed.

Hillary has stated that she "has no opinion" about the lawsuit. The Culinary Union believes she is behind this and the acrimony of the situation has gotten quite heated in the past 48 hours. What is truly amazing, in a world where every little belch by a candidate is written about with great importance by our 24/7 newschannels, is that this whole situation has been hardly mentioned outside of Nevada. Curious...

On the Republican side, Romney has been working Nevada hard but we don't have any recent polling data to see if MCain's victory in NewHampshire has helped him in the Silver State. Voters also see the Arizona senator as a moderate, and a better known choice than the other Republican candidates. Continued reports that he was almost Senator Kerry's running mate in 2004 isn't helping him with the Republican base. Polling data continues to show that he does well amongst Democrats who do not like either of their two main candidates and independents and this morning a CNN poll shows him as the most competitive versus the two Democrat frontrunners.

Meanwhile, one of the big stories over the last several days is the near-collapse of the Giuliani campaign. He has pulled out of Michigan and South Carolina and seems to be betting all on a victory in Florida to re-vitalize his campaign. If he succeeds, he has always polled well in big states like New York and Ahhhhnold's "Cullyfoahniah". (even though rumors continue to circulate that the Terminator will endorse John McCain since McCain came to his aid when his re-election bid looked less than certain.)

In the news, the President is finishing up his tour of the Middle East and the Iraqis are at last making some political progress while the security situation continues to improve in the war. But all is not well on the economic front and Romney is using Michigan's "one state recession" and fears that it may spread to the rest of the nation to attack his rivals there.

It seems more and more likely as the days progress that the economy, not the war in Iraq, is likely to be the big issue, as it usually is, in this presidential campaign.

Coach

Going into the weekend

Another quickie post. We have former White House staffer and leader of the White House "Plumbers" squad Egil "Bud" Krogh here. It's been a great time to introduce the kids to some concepts regarding integrity in government.

We had a Republican debate in Myrtle Beach, SC last night. Fred Thompson seemed to finally come alive. He went after Mike Huckabee with a vengeance and seems to be trying to dent the evangelical vote. Michigan is up for the Pubbies on Tuesday, and South Carolina on Saturday. After that, it's going to be Nevada caucuses for the Dems on Saturday and then both will focus on Florida for Jan. 29th. I have linked the latest poll information for each.

I hope to have a more substantive post this Saturday giving a bigger overview of where we stand right now, but the news is full of statements of Hillary, Huckabee, and the money problems of Giuilani and Romney.

Never a dull moment...

Coach

A primary season full of surprises...

I expect to edit this post at least a few times today. I especially expect to add links in to support my later conclusions.

Just a few quick observations about the New Hampshire Primary.

1) People will speculate about either a) Hillary's emotional moment having turned things around almost overnight or b) Obama's supporters being overconfident because of polling data and many independents who were going to vote for Obama instead deciding to vote for McCain to affect the outcome of the Republican race.

2) All this early speculation about "so-and-so will have to drop out of the race now" is nonsense. Especially on the Republican side. Huckabee is leading polls in South Carolina, McCain in Michigan, and Rudy in Florida. But that could all change. Romney has the money to go on. His strategy didn't play out, but he sees himself as the tortoise to some of the other "hares". The one in real trouble now is Fred Thompson. If Huckabee wins SC, Fred may be dead. That is something that would have been quite unexpected a few months ago.

3) The Clinton phenomenon has new life, just hours after pundits everywhere were writing their political epitaph and hitching their star to the new messiah, Barack Obama.

4) California has got to be excited. For the first time since 1968, they are relevant. Let's hope that is the only parallel to that horrible year in our nation's history.

More later,

Coach

Where things stand now...

Iowa is behind us...New Hampshire up next.

The candidates squared off in one of the best debate formats this year. Having them sit down and be able to reply to each other is so much better than the moderator controlled formats we have seen so far. Those other debates seemed more like a "College Bowl/Jeopardy" type of contest. It's good to see the candidates more "unplugged" from talking points. That's how the winner will govern...out of sight of the electorate in the Oval Office. Shouldn't we be able to get a better look at who they are, not what some YouTube commercial puts out? Meanwhile, Obama's people have put out an impressive response to Senator Clinton's candidacy with an adaptation of Apple's famous 1984 commercial. Powerful stuff...and it's this kind of "insurgent" theme along with Obama's eloquent delivery of his message that is making him such a strong draw to a jaded electorate.

The Republicans look like this could be a long drawn out bloody battle. Some are talking about a "brokerered convention." That's how they all used to be before the primary system basically chose the nominees. Dick Morris, the man who helped guide the Clintons through the Monica Lewinsky challenge, has a very concise analysis of the outlook here. I think it's a generally accurate assessment of where we are at this moment. I'm not convinced that a brokered convention will happen. Some candidates may have to drop out months before the convention if they run out of money.(Thompson, Huckabee) But if several candidates win different primaries, it could happen.

McCain looks to be the leader going into New Hampshire, with Romney, from next door Massachusetts, close behind. Frankly, Romney either needs a win or a close second or the money will begin to dry up and he will have to decide whether to tap into his vast fortune.

Giuliani has got to be nervous about his strategy to forgo the early primaries and focus on the later but more delegate-rich states such as Florida and California. Certainly the rise of Huckabee is better for him than Romney or McCain. It keeps anyone else from grabbing big momentum as Giuliani hopes the non-evangelical Republicans in the aforementioned big states will turn to him as the "anti-Huckabee" candidate.

And why are Republicans looking for an "anti-Huckabee" nominee? Most members of the elephant party realize that a Huckabee candidacy is a recipe for a McGovern-like drubbing for the GOP. Democrat operatives are slathering at the chance to win back the White House and enlarge their congressional majorities that this kind of blood-letting would visit upon the Republicans.

The Republicans enter this election in big trouble. The party is short on attractive candidates (twice as many Democrats as Republicans turned out for the Iowa caucuses..and Bush took this state in 2004), and Americans usually want to change the party in power in the White House after a two-term presidency unless the departing president is popular. This departing president is not.

The Democrats have their own problems. Mrs. Inevitability took a big hit with her third place finish in Iowa. While she has the little-known benefit of the Super Delegates on her side (most party operatives committed to her early in 2007). To understand the concept of the Super Delegates, read this article by the editor of The Nation. The Nation is to liberals what National Review is to conservatives, so this kind of alarm about the system the Democrats are using is coming from their own constituency.

If Obama keeps winning but Hillary prevails at the convention because of the Clinton's control of the party machinery...well, it wouldn't make for a pretty Democratic Convention. Senator Clinton's strategy, as shown in last night's debate, was to attack Obama. Even the foreign press, who usually prefer the Clintons, were put off by the approach.

Obama's message has caught fire with not just Democrats but many independent voters as well. Legions of young people have put their energies into his campaign. If he keeps winning these primaries, look to the South Carolina primary to see if southern blacks will switch their allegiance to Obama instead of the Clintons. So far, the Clintons have gotten almost all the support from the black leadership (thus the unusual involvement of Oprah being such big news). Will the rank and file black voter go along? Or will they see Obama's success in such unlikely (read "few black voters") places like Iowa and now possibly New Hampshire as a sign that the time is now for the first black president?

This will be an election like no other. And for a political junkie like me, it promises to be a fascinating year!

A quick last post from Canada

Our friends to the north are very interested in our elections. I am going to tell them what I am telling you now. Our candidates this November will be Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. I didn't say that is who I want...it's who we will get. Should be fun. The next post will be from St. Louis on Friday after the Iowa Caucus.

Coach

Edit: John McCain seems to be having a strong last minute surge in Iowa, probably as Rudy and Mitt fade and Huckabee is less tasty as the flavor of the month. If so, he should win NH and a win in SC would change this all. It would probably also finish off Thompson...will the Fredheads go to Mitt or McCain?

Isn't politics fun?

The Global War on Terror in the New Year

This will be a short post because I am still visiting friends up in Canada, but I wanted to give readers a chance to digest some of the information I am linking concerning the global war against Islamofascism. Readers will notice that I prefer this to the more popular "War on Terror" mainly because it more clearly defines the nature of who has declared war on us.

In a year when we will be choosing a new commander-in-chief, this is still a very important issue as candidate Fred Thompson so plainly put it the other day.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, the field appears to remain wide open. Many pundits think that those who have the best organization (Hillary, Romney) will win, as they saw Kerry's Ted Kennedy-led organization surprise victory in 2004. Others think the passion of the newbies (Huckabee, Obama) will carry the day. Here is the latest poll. It will be fun to watch.

New Hampshire will follow quickly, succeeded by South Carolina. By the time Super Tuesday hits on Feb 4th, the field should be diminished and the pathway to the White House will be much clearer.

Anyway, I highly recommend this assessment of the war. It seems to have a good grip on the global nature of the efforts of those who are waging this religious war. It's also in the news up here as they just lost their 74th soldier of the year in Afghanistan to an IED attack in Kandahar. The population is split over the mission, but the Conservative government is solidly behind the effort.

Happy New Year to all, and I will hopefully have a lot to say about the Iowa results when I get back to St. Louis on Friday.

Coach