Schizophrenic Tuesday

Another Tuesday, another big primary for the Democrats. Indiana and North Carolina hold their time in the spotlight tomorrow in two very different demographic groups for the two candidates.

North Carolina would normally have promised to be another repeat of past southern stompings administered to Hillary by Obama. Mostly because of the heavy African-American makeup of the Democratic party primary voters in the south, Obama has swept to big double-digit victories in Dixie. Will that repeat itself tomorrow?

Since the last victory, Mississippi, we have had the Reverend Wright connection addressed in two major Obama speeches, the "bitter and gun-clinging" episode in San Francisco, and Obama's off-hand remark about "typical white person" referring to his grandmother. Will this motivate southern whites to back Hillary by bigger numbers and offset some of Obama's votes in the black community? Will it encourage Republicans to take this chance to affect the Democratic nominating process as they seem to have done in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

In the Hoosier state, it should have been a solid win for the Clintons. Home state senator Evan Bayh, a member of one of Indiana's most storied political families, is working hard for Mrs. Clinton. Whispers continue that, if she is successful in the winning the nomination, he is on her short list to be her veep nominee. Obama has made Indiana's outcome uncertain because of the strength of the black vote in Indianapolis and the northwestern corner of the state; a de facto suburb of Chicago and Obama's home state of Illinois.

The most likely scenario is that tomorrow's contests will be a split decision. And if so, not much would change. But what path is it that would "remain unchanged?" A brokered convention? Howard Dean forcing a June ending to the blood-letting? Clinton Inc.'s scorched earth pursuit of the nomination?

Most experts seem agreed that if Obama were to win both primaries, the pressure on Hillary to withdraw could be unbearable. But what if she were to win both, or, more likely, win Indiana and come very close in North Carolina?

John McCain campaigned in New Orleans last week, continuing his "I'm not George Bush" tour of places where Bush dare not go. While there, he met with one of the few bright future stars of the Republican party. And, perhaps, his vice-presidential nominee?

I still believe that the Democrat party hierarchy have decided that Obama must be chosen in order to preserve the New Deal coalition that has kept the Democrats in control of Congress for most years since the Great Depression. They know that only the near unanimous support for the party's candidates over the last 40 years by African-American voters has kept them from being in the wilderness during the Nixon-Reagan presidencies. Without their support, they could never have regained control of Congress in 2006...and seem destined to enlarge those majorities this year...

...unless black voters were to stay home because Obama had been "cheated" out of the nomination by Clinton machinations. And the Clintons could only pull this fat out of the fire if the party higher-ups acquiesced.

But what do the voters think?

We are about to find out...

Coach

Holy Cow

"So little to do, so much time...strike that...reverse it."

-- Gene Wilder as Willy Wonka in "Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory"

The press conference that Barack Obama held today was an incredible piece of political drama. Rumor has it that Hillary is polling within 5 points of him in North Carolina.

Panic is in the air.

I will work on a much fuller post sometime on Wednesday...but for now...Obama must be in BIG trouble to throw his old mentor under the bus like this(some wags are asking if his grandma can come up now). His internal polling must be brutal.

There have to be some nervous superdelegates out there tonight...

Coach

Thanks for nothing

Poor Barack Obama. He's trying to recover from yet another loss of a large population state replete with blue-collar white Democrat majorities and lo and behold, Reverend Wright pops up on his "15 minutes of fame" tour to torpedo Obama's attempts to reconcile with this critical demographic group.

After working hard to convince Democrat primary voters, and more importantly superdelegates, that Wright's most inflammatory views were "sound bites taken out of context", the Reverend has been in a spate of public appearances that not only put them in a context that reinforced the public "misperceptions" but took them to another level. He even went to great lengths to explain that blacks and whites think differently, brain-wise, and thus the black affinity for memorizing hip-hop lyrics. If a white person made these observations, they would be castigated like they were Jimmy the Greek.

Most unfortunate, for Obama at least, was Wright's strange scattershot appearance at the National Press Club yesterday. He now has political observers, on both sides of the ideological spectrum, opening wondering if he is trying to sabotage Obama's campaign and elect John McCain. Newt Gingrich thinks Wright is doing this to hurt Obama. This is gonna keep Democrats in so much chaos that I would buy stock in Maalox and Pepto-Bismol if I were an investing wizard.

When he started with a calm appearance on Bill Moyer's show on PBS, it seemed logical for Wright, knowing that he continues to be an issue, to put a calm face with the frenzied voice on the pulpit clips. But black liberation theology is no more reasonable to white voters when spoken in quiet but passionate explanations on one of the most liberal programs on TV. Wright's follow-up appearances at the NAACP Detroit branch's dinner and the Press Club meeting will only serve to confirm the worst fear of the working class blue collar worker: an Obama presidency will constitute black retribution for hundreds of years of white oppression in America. This is not a "post-racial" candidate's message if one expect to woo old-style New Deal Democrats.

For the first time, I am changing my view that Obama's candidacy could lead to a McGovern-style loss: it could be worse. Many New Deal-coalition Democrats could see this as time to send a message to their party. They might want to send it by casting aside many congressional Democrats, especially those who bought into Obama's "new message" campaign and endorsed the Illinois senator.

We have seen over the last several weeks that polling data and even the exit polls have not properly represented this demographic group's rejection of the Obama candidacy once their ballots are tabulated. What happens when this opposition to Obama becomes more publicly acceptable?

We are starting to see this show up in polling data in Indiana. If he takes a shellacking there, this theme will become an open concern for the superdelegates. He had better hold his double-digit lead in heavily black North Carolina.

As it becomes increasingly clear that they will have to choose the nominee, that neither candidate will be able to claim the nod based on the pledged delegates, the party will have it's choice between death by discredited Clinton or death by a black liberation theology amateur who thinks we simply need to sit down and talk with our enemies. This is the advice he is accepting which has serious risks for the world, not just the United States. What should party leaders do? I don't envy them.

I realize that to some reading this blog this will seem a harsh characterization of the two candidates but this is how disgruntled Democrats are starting to perceive their choices.

John McCain must feel like he is truly experiencing the "luck of the Irish."

PS...it gets stranger...it seems the good reverend's appearance at the National Press Club was organized by a hardcore black Hillary supporter. Wow, isn't politics fascinating?

PPS...once again, one of my favorite writers has weighed in on these matters. I urge, nay, PLEAD, with my readers to ready Victor Davis Hanson's blog post on Wright and the effect on the Obama candidacy. Whether you agree with it or not, Professor Hanson has the perspective of a well-respected historian...

Nuclear Mideast update

Sometime ago, I posted about Iran's nuclear program. Some readers may remember an Israeli raid on a Syrian site in Sept.

It appears US Intel is now briefing Congress on the attack...and YES, plutonium was present.

Here's the latest from NRO online about this developing story.

I have just finished the unit, in my US History class, about Hiroshima and we talked a lot about the fears of nuclear weapons. It's still amazing to me that in the almost 63 years since Nagasaki, that a nuclear weapon has not been used in anger.

I'm not so sure that the trio of Iran, Syria, and North Korea can be trusted to keep that streak going...

The night after...

So...what was settled?

1) No matter what happens from here on out, Hillary is in through the convention. She will never drop out now, and is looking to put more pressure on the freshman senator, perhaps hoping for another major gaffe or revelation.

2) She has won the primaries in most of the large population states. Only the ones without an asterisk were won by Obama. Illinois is, of course, his home state. And the margin there represents most of his popular vote edge over her. He will probably win North Carolina, which is #12...but both Georgia and North Carolina are red states. McCain should win them handily.

Pennsylvania *
California *
Texas *
Ohio *
Illinois
New York *
Florida *
Massachusetts *
Wisconsin
New Jersey *
Georgia
Michigan *

Remember that presently the rules of the convention are to deny any representation from Michigan and Florida. Regardless of how they do it, the Democrats will have to allow some kind of delegation from those states. They will have to have her delegates in majority, especially Florida where she won in a huge landslide. It won't give her the nomination, but it will make things more interesting.

3) Indiana and North Carolina are up on May 6. Obama should win with the heavy black population in the Democratic party in North Carolina, and the heavy numbers of academia and college youth in the universities will boost his margin. Indiana is more problematic for him.

Indianapolis should go for Obama, but the margin there, and in Gary (a near suburb of Chicago) may not offset the small towns and cities of Indiana. There, the blue collar workers of the auto parts and assembly industries should favor Clinton as they did in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

In the end, I would expect the same kind of result in Indiana as we saw in those two states, in the neighborhood of a 6-10% Clinton win.

The problem for the Democrats is that Obama has won a large part of his delegates in states that McCain will probably win in November. Hillary has won the contests in the states that a Democrat MUST win in order to be elected.

What happens now? It goes on...Hillary will win a big victory in West Virginia on May 13th. They will split Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th; Hillary will win KY big, Obama comfortably in Oregon. Puerto Rico should go for Hillary on June 1 and Obama should take both South Dakota and Montana on June 3...but again, those are both red states...and Puerto Rico can't even vote in the US general election. What a mess.

You couldn't pay me enough to be Howard Dean.

How are things going on the Republican side? All McCain has to do is stay clean and keep defining who he is...while they are distracted, the Democrats can't spend much time trying to define him as "McSame" or "Bush III". He won't raise as much money as the two Democrats over the next few months...but then, he doesn't need to. He's done. This is an excellent analysis of the situation as it is now, and the author, Ed Morrissey, cites Karl Rove's perceptive analysis of the race. Even if you think you hate Karl Rove, I suggest you click that link. He may be partisan, but he's also a good political analyst. Ignore him at your own peril. By the way, I would say that about people like James Carville or Pat Caddell (former managers of Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) as well.

Obama and Clinton are still raising money like crazy. Hillary claims to have raised $10 million in the 24 hours after Tuesday. They both are still spending like drunken sailors. Obama outspent Hillary 3-1 to lose in Pennsylvania. He spent $10 million there but it seems his earlier mentioned reticence to pay "walking around money" cut down his margin in Philadelphia and cost him at least a close loss.

The superdelegates are in a real crunch. What do they do? THEY WILL be determining this nomination. IF they choose her, the African-American vote may decide to riot in Denver (Sharpton is already promising this) and stay home in the fall. If they stay home, they may make any Hillary loss even worse...but, more disastrously, that lack of straight ticket Democrat voting from the inner city black voter could cost the party several close elections in the House and Senate. This is a nightmare for Pelosi and Reid.

If they choose Obama, you may not only continue to lose Ohio and Florida, as you did in 2000 and 2004, but you may lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Minnesota...heck, polls show it may even put liberal bastion Massachusetts in play.

McCain has played this right going back to 2000. He has kept his eye on two strategies...stay left of Bush(it remains to see how well that holds up over the campaign)...and court Latino voters with his stance on immigration. Except for the war, McCain has taken stances more moderate than the conservative base of the Republican party.

With the continuing civil war going on in the Democratic party, he may have himself right where he wants to be.

A lot can happen in just a few months...a few months ago, Hillary was the nominee waiting to be coronated...Mitt Romney's money was going to buy him the nomination...St. Rudy of 9/11 was the leader in all the polls...and Iraq was going to guarantee a Republican loss as Congress waited for the testimony of "General Betrayus". Iraq could actually end up being a plus for McCain.

A lot can still happen with six months to go...Events could swing towards the Democrats and lead to the landslide that everyone thought was inevitable last year...but at this point...I would rather be John McCain than either of the two Democrats.

Whoda thunk?

Barack and the bird

I have been aware of a controversy over the last few days that I have hesitated to address in this blog: Did Obama give Hillary a "stealth 'finger'" in a speech shortly after the Pennsylvania debate?

This is one of those things that would, on the surface, reflect what many refer to as "silly season" in campaigns in the world of the 24 hour new cycle.

But an article on the American Thinker website raises an important question both ethically and politically. I recommend that you click on the links inside the article and watch the YouTube videos for yourself. If this was Obama's intent, and I repeat if, then it poses two big questions:

Will this help him get the loyalty of Hillary supporters after the convention?

Is this behavior appropriate for a president of the United States?

I am not unbiased as an observer of this election, so I can't say for certain where I stand on whether or not he intended to send this "message" to Hillary. But the question would not even be asked if there weren't already some concerns about Obama's thin skin in the early stages of this campaign. We have a long way to go and I am becoming persuaded that our election process is so long so that a candidate cannot hide who he truly is. Over time, the pressures and fatigue set in and you react in ways that drop the veil of the "public" person, and we get glimpses of who these people are, minus the manufactured slogans and managed image.

McCain has been through this for a long time and may be able to put up a better public front...or he may be who we think he is. Read that article from last night's post about the "Why can't I just eat my waffle" comment. I found it interesting because the background story is Obama's changed position on meetings with the press, now that the open adulation phase is over.

McCain is still...being McCain...answering questions until the reporters run out. He continues to woo the press and maintain complete press access.

Which attitude is more likely to serve the office of the president of the United States well?

The night before...

It's 11 PM...do you know where your white ethnic blue collar voter is?

This is when the campaigns will be checking their lists of volunteers and who is getting their identified voters to the polls for the big Pennsylvania primary tomorrow. There has been some big brouhahas today.

First, Matt Drudge came out with a shout about 11 am claiming that Hillary's internal polling showed her up by 11. If true, it's significant. Internal polling is almost always very reliable. You live or die by it's accuracy and with the money they get paid by campaigns, you aren't in the business very long if you aren't good. It's completely different from the media polls we see in newspapers and TV. The Clinton campaign denied the report, but they had better. The last thing they want is complacency from their voters...they need them motivated to go to the polls.

Secondly, both came out with last minute ads...here is the YouTube for Hillary's, which almost immediately got a response from Obama here.

Finally, Hillary will spend tomorrow night in Indiana...the next battleground. This analysis by John McIntyre of RealClearPolitics.com gives the conventional wisdom and a good scorecard of expectations at the end that will help the casual viewer to judge how the candidates did.

If Hillary wins this in Ohio fashion(she won by 10 points), Obama is in more trouble than the media lets on. He must have those white ethnic voters in Rust Belt states if he wins the nomination and goes up against McCain in the fall. Without them...he can stop worrying about his middle name being Hussein...it will be McGovern instead.

Coach

PS...yet another example of how he had better get a thicker skin...quickly...

The Thrilla for Vanilla

It's finally here...the long awaited Pennsylvania primary. And it will actually come down to the colored vote...what do I mean by that? I mean BLUE collared WHITE voters. Who woulda thunk...

Will it be the suburban upper middle-class, college-educated voter who gives Obama a surprisingly strong showing? Or will Hillary do another Bela Lugosi, returning from her lair like the famous undead vampire who always seems to have another way to survive.

The general consensus of polling data seems to be that she needs a high single-to-low double digit win to realistically keep this going beyond simply a "refusal to face reality" chance of being the nominee.

Not a lot has changed since the last post except perhaps some questions about John McCain, just so the media can say he didn't get a free pass. Today's shot was an article in the Washingon Post recycling some oft disproven anecdotal stories about McCain's "out of control" temper. If I had lived through what he experienced in a Vietnamese prison for almost 6 years, I would be unusual if I DIDN'T have a temper.

But when you are talking about someone who will have their finger on "the button", it's a fair question. There is, however, some concern about the integrity of the sourcing of the story. Why should that be unusual in this campaign? Every candidate seems to have suffered from that malady. McCain's manager answered the charges in an email to an editor at National Review (a friendly publication to be sure) and I suppose time will tell if others come forward to contradict or support the contention.

On the Democrat front, the barnstorming continues as if it were the last few weeks before the general election. Obama has outspent Hillary 5-1 in this state and it will be interesting to see if he gets a good return on this investment. Hillary is beginning to see some poll movement and we will soon see if the "bitter" statement hurt Obama in the Keystone state. I highly recommend the most serious political junkies read this excellent analysis of the poll numbers and compare them with Ohio's numbers right before that state's primary. This time, there was a huge change in registrations in Pennsylvania before the cutoff date. Were these Obamacans or participants in Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos?

Tuesday night should tell us a lot...

Fallout?

This will be a quickie.

A lot going on in the election...is there fallout from the "bitter" comments? Here are some polling results from Pennsylvania.

There is a debate tonight between Hillary and Obama in the Keystone state. Will there be any fireworks? Probably not. But I will work on a quick post if there is. Obama picked up a key endorsement from New Jerseyan Bruce Springsteen...perhaps the working-class musician's endorsement will help him with "bitter" blue-collar workers.

McCain is quietly going out and building a more solid image of himself with speeches on the economy, including a gas tax cut, and continuing to draw a picture of Senator Obama as elitist and out of touch with most Americans. At the same time, he maintains that he will run a respectful campaign, which is fairly easy considering how nasty things are getting to be between the two Democratic candidates. Look for some kind of new slime to be dropped on Obama by the Clintons, through an untraceable source in the next few days before the Pennsylvania primary.

Cheers,

Coach

10 days to go...

On April 22nd, Pennsylvania will hold it's Democratic Party primary. Things sure have gotten wilder since Ohio and Texas. Obama has dropped the ball more times than a basketball player in a four corners offense. No, that's not as mixed a metaphor as you might think.

From "typical white person", to "Bowling for gutters", to "bitter folks" comments (when speaking to San Franciscans about Pennsylvanians no less!) Obama is beginning to show his inexperience on a national level. Right about now, you have to wonder if some superdelegates are unsure that he is "ready for prime time." He is also suffering from an examination of the company he keeps, and some interesting thoughts on his approach to race and how he sees white culture in America. Shelby Steele has written a fascinating book and a recent interview with Steele has some interesting insights here. (Steele is mixed race like Obama)

Luckily for him, the Clintons have been even worse. Bill continues to suffer from "foot in mouth" disease, bringing up the whole Bosnia issue again. Again, people ask, does he want her to lose? Even longtime Democrats have begun to realize what many Republicans said in the 90s...the Clintons appear to be congenital liars. You wonder if they even know when they say things...

Hillary needs a big win. For a while, her gaffe-a-day plan was bringing Obama within reach. Now, she seems to be widening the gap again, and Obama's "bitter people" quip seems to add fuel to the fire.

Meanwhile, the polling data in Pennsylvania looks good for Hillary in the primary, but even better for McCain in the general election.

The Republican base may have taken the opportunity in the last several weeks to re-register for the Democrat primary and affect the outcome. If a well-known talk show host has his way, it will lead to a big Hillary win, and a continuing bleeding of internal wounds for the party of the donkey.

Republicans sees this as fair game, since they attribute McCain's win of the nomination to the votes of independents and Democrats for him in their primaries early on in the season.

Elephants never forget.

Coach